在第二个总统任期内，唐纳德·特朗普的支持率持续下滑。根据Silver Bulletin的民调平均值，2025年1月23日，即就职三天后，他的支持率达到了第二个任期内的最高值——52.4%。而就在四天前的9月27日，这一数值跌至第二个任期的最低点——37.2%。与此同时，对特朗普工作表现持反对态度的美国人比例从他就职次日的40%上升到了9月24日的60.4%，增幅达20个百分点。
Donald Trump’s job-approval numbers have steadily eroded throughout his second term as president. Per the Silver Bulletin polling averages, he hit his highest second-term job-approval number of 52.4 on January 23, 2025, three days after his inauguration. He hit his second-term low of 37.2 percent on September 27, four days ago. Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans disapproving of the job he is doing has increased by 20 points from 40 percent the day after his inauguration to 60.4 percent on September 24.
总体而言，特朗普第二个任期的走势完全可以用“持续走下坡路、日益不受欢迎”来形容。目前数据显示，49.1%的美国人强烈不认可特朗普的工作表现；仅有20%的人表示强烈支持。
There’s simply no way to characterize his second-term trajectory other than as a long voyage into unpopularity. At present, Silver Bulletin shows that 49.1 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance; only 20 percent strongly approve.
那么，一个必须被提出的问题是：特朗普的支持率还能跌到多低呢？
So the question that must be asked is this: How low can Trump’s job approval go?
盖洛普拥有最详尽的总统支持率数据库，可追溯至富兰克林·罗斯福时期。历史上支持率最低的总统依次为：哈里·杜鲁门，22%（1952年2月）；理查德·尼克松，24%（1974年7月至8月）；乔治·W·布什，25%（2008年10月）；吉米·卡特，28%（1979年6月）；乔治·H·W·布什，29%（1992年7月）；唐纳德·特朗普，34%（2021年1月）。
Gallup has the deepest database of presidential job-approval numbers, dating back to FDR, and the worst numbers ever belong to these presidents: Harry Truman, 22 percent (February 1952); Richard Nixon, 24 percent (July–August 1974); George W. Bush, 25 percent (October 2008); Jimmy Carter, 28 percent (June 1979); George H.W. Bush, 29 percent (July 1992); and Donald Trump, 34 percent (January 2021).
这些数据背后都是总统任期内遭遇的种种困境。杜鲁门当时深陷朝鲜战争泥潭，还面临大规模的反新政情绪，最终共和党人德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔以压倒性优势当选总统。尼克松则即将黯然辞职。小布什则同时承受着伊拉克战争失败与严重金融危机的双重打击。卡特当时也注定会在连任选举中遭遇惨败。老布什执政期间经济陷入衰退，共和党内部也出现分裂，最终比尔·克林顿成功当选总统。
This is quite the parade of presidential disasters. Truman was in the depths of the Korean War and facing a vast anti–New Deal backlash that would soon elect Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower in a landslide. Nixon was about to resign in disgrace. Bush 43 was suffering from the double whammy of a failed Iraq War and a huge financial crisis. Jimmy Carter was cruising toward a terrible reelection bruising. Bush 41 was presiding over a recession and a GOP party split that would soon elect Bill Clinton.
至于特朗普，他当时刚刚煽动了一场企图推翻2020年选举结果的未遂政变，这一行为当时连许多共和党人都表示谴责。
And Trump had just incited an attempted coup to reverse his 2020 election defeat, which at the time even Republicans deplored.
如今，“特朗普2.0”也步入了这一行列。10月1日发布的美联社/NORC联合民调是近期对特朗普支持率进行测试的重要全国性调查，结果显示：31%的受访者对特朗普持，69%持（其中51%明确表示不认可）。过去一周内，昆尼皮亚克大学（34%）、埃默森学院（36%）、安格斯·里德全球调查机构（34%）、《经济学人》/YouGov联合调查（36%）、Echelon Insights（36%）以及Verasight（37%）也相继发布了类似民调结果，均显示特朗普的支持率处于30%左右的水平。
Trump 2.0 has entered that territory now. The latest major national poll testing his job approval, an AP/NORC survey released on October 1, places Trump’s approval ratio at 31 percent positive, 69 percent negative (with 51 percent strongly disapproving). In the last week, national polls giving Trump job-approval ratings in the 30s were also released by Quinnipiac (34 percent), Emerson (36 percent), Angus Reid Global (34 percent), Economist/YouGov (36 percent), Echelon Insights (36 percent), and Verasight (37 percent).
在上述这些总统支持率处于低位的案例中，仅有1974年的尼克松属于中期选举前夕的情况。虽然到1974年11月尼克松已卸任，由当时颇受欢迎的杰拉尔德·福特接任，但共和党仍失去了48个众议院席位和5个参议院席位。其他具有参考价值的案例还包括：1966年的林登·约翰逊（选举前支持率为44%，其所属政党失去了47个众议院席位和4个参议院席位）；1994年的比尔·克林顿（选举前支持率为48%，其所属政党失去了54个众议院席位和8个参议院席位）；2006年的乔治·W·布什（选举前支持率为37%，其所属政党失去了30个众议院席位和6个参议院席位）；2010年的巴拉克·奥巴马（选举前支持率为45%，其所属政党失去了63个众议院席位和6个参议院席位）；以及2018年的特朗普本人（选举前支持率为44%，其所属政党失去了41个众议院席位，仅赢得了2个参议院席位）。
Only one of the presidential lows above preceded a midterm election: Nixon ’74. Even though Nixon was out of office by November 1974, replaced by the momentarily popular Gerald Ford, Republicans lost 48 House seats and five Senate seats. Other instructive moments, though, include (using Gallup job-approval numbers) Lyndon Johnson in 1966 (preelection job approval of 44 percent; his party lost 47 House seats and four Senate seats); Bill Clinton in 1994 (preelection job approval of 48 percent; his party lost 54 House seats and eight Senate seats); George W. Bush in 2006 (preelection job approval of 37 percent; his party lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats); Barack Obama in 2010 (preelection job approval of 45 percent; his party lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats); and Trump himself in 2018 (preelection job approval of 44 percent; his party lost 41 House seats and gained two Senate seats).
诚然，在这些选举中，在野党取得的巨大胜利是对执政党此前大获全胜的一种修正。但总体趋势十分明显：认为特朗普所属政党此次能够避免失去参众两院控制权的说法实在缺乏说服力。
Yes, the huge wins the out-partyed in some of these elections represented a correction for previous big wins by the White House party. But still, the pattern is strong enough that the idea that Trump’s party is now going to avoid losing either congressional chamber just doesn’t make much sense.
众所周知，总统的支持率是影响中期选举结果的最关键因素。虽然有时总统所在政党的成员能够与总统的政策表现划清界限，但由于党派两极分化以及选民倾向于按党派投票的趋势日益明显，这种情况已越来越少见。偶尔，整个总统政党也能在一定程度上抵消总统不受欢迎所带来的负面影响，尤其是在对其有利的议题备受关注或反对党同样不得人心的时候。
It’s universally understood that the president’s popularity is the single most important variable affecting midterm election outcomes. Sometimes individual members of the president’s party are able to distance themselves from the president’s record, though that’s a phenomenon less and less common thanks to partisan polarization and straight-ticket voting. Occasionally the president’s party as a whole can at least partially overcome his unpopularity, particularly when issues benefiting it are especially salient or the other party is unpopular too.
2022年的情况便大致如此：最高法院推翻“罗诉韦德案”的裁决引发了民众反弹，这对民主党有利；而共和党则出现了几位表现糟糕的参议员候选人。总体而言，特朗普的支持率是我们预测11月3日选举结果的最佳指标。可惜对共和党来说，这一指标并不乐观。
To some extent that was the case in 2022 when a backlash to the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade helped Democrats, and Republicans had some notably bad Senate candidates. But all in all, Trump’s job-approval numbers are the best key we have to what is happening on November 3. And that’s not good news for the GOP.
考虑到当前的国内形势以及伊朗战事持续不断，等到中期选举结束时，特朗普的支持率很可能还会进一步下滑。目前他的支持率已经偏低，未来甚至可能跌至只有那些狂热的MAGA支持者还愿意追随他的地步。
And yes, given conditions in the country and an endless war in Iran, Trump’s popularity could well sink lower still by the time the midterms have ended. He’s low but could go lower, until the only supporters left are his fanatical MAGA base.
早有迹象显示：特朗普的中期选举策略彻底搞砸了，可怜的肯·帕克斯顿成了最大受害者。
More early and often Trump’s Midterms Convention Blew Up in Poor Ken Paxton’s Face