民主党在经济、通胀、移民、犯罪——甚至国家安全等问题上的信任度，如今均已超过共和党。
Democrats are now more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy, inflation, immigration, crime — even national security.
《纽约时报》周三发布了一项与锡耶纳大学联合进行的民调，显示美国仅有34%的登记选民认可唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作表现，而60%表示不认可。《时报》指出，除哈里·杜鲁门外，这是历任总统在中期选举前这个时间点的最低支持率。杜鲁门于1946年中期选举时的支持率为33%，《时报》注明这是“现代民调的曙光”时期。
The New York Times released a poll, conducted jointly with Siena University, on Wednesday showing just 34% of registered voters in the United States approve of the job that Donald Trump has been doing as president, while 60% disapprove. The Times noted that this is a lower approval than that of any president at this point before a midterm, with the lone exception of Harry Truman, who limped into the 1946 midterm elections with a 33% approval rating, which the Times noted was “at the dawn of modern polling.”
如果对比支持率与不支持率的差值——即我们在“五十加一”网站称之为的“净支持率”——特朗普的处境比前任更糟。1946年10月，杜鲁门的支持率在历史平均值中徘徊于35%至38%之间——大致相当于特朗普现在的水平——但“不支持”他的美国人“仅”约占一半。
The numbers are even worse for the president if you compare the difference between his approval and disapproval rating — his “net” rating, as we call it here at FiftyPlusOne — to that of his predecessors. In October 1946, Truman’s approval in our historical average hovered between 35% and 38% — about where Trump is now — but “only” around half of Americans disapproved of him.
在1946年中期选举前14天，杜鲁门的净支持率为−10.3（支持率37.9% 对 不支持率48.2%）。这远好于特朗普：截至周三下午的平均值，特朗普支持率34.8%，不支持率62.0%，净支持率为−27.2。
Fourteen days before the 1946 midterms, Truman’s net approval stood at −10.3 (37.9% to 48.2%). That is much better than Trump, who, as of our average on Wednesday afternoon, has a 34.8% approval and 62.0% disapproval rating — for a net of −27.2.
特朗普支持率：最新民调 这一对比使特朗普成为有史以来最不受欢迎的总统，且差距并不小：此前中期选举周期前总统支持率最差纪录属于2006年的乔治·W·布什，为−19.3。那一年是2006年的“惨败”之年，因伊拉克战争和联邦政府对卡特里娜飓风善后处理不善引发广泛反弹，民主党赢得31个众议院席位和5个参议院席位。特朗普比该水平低8个百分点——也比他在2018年此时的表现低17个百分点，那一年民主党赢得了40个众议院席位。
Trump approval rating: The latest polls This comparison makes Trump the most unpopular president of all time, and it isn’t close: The previous record for worst-ever presidential approval before a midterm cycle belonged to George W. Bush in 2006, at −19.3. That was the “thumpin” year of 2006, when Democrats gained 31 House seats and five in the Senate amid widespread backlash to the Iraq War and the federal mismanagement of Hurricane Katrina’s aftermath. Trump is eight points below that level — and 17 below his own standing at this point in 2018, when Democrats gained 40 House seats.
要解释总统支持率下滑的原因并不难。选民在2024年选举特朗普，很大程度上是因为乔·拜登执政期间成本上涨所带来的经济焦虑。但这位总统端出的是一套强硬右翼议程——关税、大规模驱逐出境的手段——却没能降低生活成本。
It is not hard to explain this drop in views of the president. Voters elected Trump in 2024 largely because of economic anxiety resulting from rising costs under Joe Biden. But the president has delivered a hard-right agenda — tariffs, mass-deportation tactics — without bringing down the cost of living.
在7月公布的CNN/SSRS民调中，73%的美国人表示，特朗普没有足够重视国家最重要的问题——创下历史新高。仅有27%的人表示他的优先事项是正确的。
In a CNN/SSRS poll released back in July, 73% of Americans said Trump had not paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems — a record high. Just 27% said he had the right priorities.
这种损害也从总统蔓延到了其政党的声誉——以及民众对由该党处理这些问题的信任上。周三《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调发现，民主党在经济、生活成本、汽油价格和医疗保健上领先8至20个百分点。而且这并不是一次民调的偶然结果。FiftyPlusOne汇总了所有可获得的、询问美国人在某一特定问题上更信任哪个政党的民调——包括可追溯至1951年的盖洛普，以及较近期的ABC/《华盛顿邮报》、NBC/《华尔街日报》、福克斯新闻、CNN等——并对每个两年周期内的净信任度取平均值，对临近选举日进行的民调赋予更高权重。
That damage has also spread from the president to his party’s reputation — and trust in it to handle those issues. Wednesday’s Times/Siena poll found Democrats ahead by eight to 20 points on the economy, cost of living, gas prices and healthcare. And that’s not a one-poll fluke. FiftyPlusOne compiled every available poll asking which party Americans trust more on a given issue — Gallup back to 1951, plus ABC/Washington Post, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN and others more recently — and averaged net trust within each two-year cycle, weighting polls taken closer to Election Day more heavily.
结果如下图所示，以美国人在六个关键议题上表示信任民主党与信任共和党的百分比之差来表示。（正值表示美国人更可能信任民主党而非共和党。）先从经济说起。2022年，在我们的平均值中，美国人在经济上信任共和党胜过民主党的幅度为14个百分点；2024年为10个百分点。如今，民主党领先6个百分点——四年内出现了20个百分点的摆幅，这也是该党自2008年以来的最佳表现。
The results are shown in the graph below as the gap between the percentage of Americans who said they trust the Democrats and Republicans on each of six key issues. (Positive values indicate Americans are more likely to trust Democrats than Republicans). Start with the economy. In 2022, Americans trusted Republicans over Democrats on the economy by 14 points in our average; in 2024, it was by 10 points. Today, Democrats lead by six points — a 20-point swing in four years, and the party’s best showing since 2008.
盖洛普长期进行的调查也说明了同样的故事：51%的美国人现在表示，民主党在让国家繁荣方面会做得更好，而共和党为37%，这是自2007年以来民主党最大的领先幅度。
Gallup’s long-running measure tells the same story: 51% of Americans now say Democrats will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous, versus 37% for Republicans, the widest Democratic lead since 2007.
价格方面的变化尤为明显：在2024年，共和党在应对通货膨胀问题上的支持率领先民主党13个百分点；如今这一优势已缩小至10个百分点，整体差距为23个百分点，这也是自1990年以来民主党在相关议题上的最佳表现。
The shift on prices is even sharper. Republicans led on inflation by 13 points in 2024. Democrats now lead by 10 — a 23-point swing, and the best Democratic showing according to data going back to 1990.
在移民问题上，共和党曾一度占据绝对优势（根据2006年以来的数据，2024年其支持率领先民主党14个百分点），但如今这一优势已缩小至3个百分点；最新季度的民调显示两党支持率基本持平。MS NOW的报告显示，政府的严厉政策正在令拉丁裔选民逐渐远离共和党。在边境安全和犯罪问题上，共和党仍保持一定优势，但优势幅度已大幅下降：在边境安全问题上，共和党的支持率从26个百分点降至15个百分点；在犯罪问题上，支持率从16个百分点降至8个百分点。
Immigration has gone from the issue where the GOP posted its best cycle on record — a 14-point Republican lead in 2024, in data going back to 2006 — to a three-point edge, and polls from the latest quarter are roughly even. MS NOW reported the administration’s crackdown is pushing Latino voters away. Republicans still lead on border security and crime, but by far less than they did: 15 points on the border, down from 26, and eight on crime, down from 16. Even national security, a Republican calling card for decades, has flipped.
就连长期以来一直是共和党优势领域的国家安全问题也发生了逆转：根据盖洛普（Gallup）的调查，现在有46%的美国人更信任民主党能够保护国家免受国际恐怖主义和军事威胁的侵害，而共和党的支持率为42%——这是自2007年以来民主党首次在国家安全问题上取得领先。就在2023年，共和党在这一议题上的支持率还领先民主党22个百分点。
Gallup now finds 46% of Americans trust Democrats more to protect the country from international terrorism and military threats, compared with 42% for Republicans — the first Democratic lead since 2007. As recently as 2023, Republicans led by 22 points.
民调结果显示，特朗普浪费了共和党在多个长期占据优势议题上的优势。政治学界认为，这些议题上的优势需要数十年时间才能建立起来，但显然这些优势在短短一年内就土崩瓦解了。
The polls indicate Trump has squandered his party’s advantage on several issues it has dominated for decades. The view from political science is that issue advantages take decades to build — but evidently, only a year to crumble.
那些信息获取较少、参与度较低的选民（即那些仅在选举前几周才开始关注选举情况的选民）往往更关注现任政府的整体表现，而非具体政策。如果这种趋势持续下去，而这些选民最终选择支持支持率创下历史新低的总统，那么对民主党来说无疑是个好兆头。
Low-info or low-engagement voters — the ones only starting to pay attention to the races in the weeks immediately prior to the elections — tend to react more to the general vibes of the incumbent than particular issues. If that holds, and these voters are turning in now to a president with a worst-ever approval, that will bode well for Democrats in a few weeks.
众议院控制权：最新民调 面对这些数字，共和党人可能正在寻找一条摆脱特朗普对其政党造成损害的出路。他们或许还能在下次总统选举前找到一条出路，但在下周中期选举计票之前不太可能找到。近几周来，特朗普在全国各地举行了六场精神错乱的集会，这些集会恐怕无助于让选民相信他在经济、生活成本或对外纠葛方面的表现。
Control of the House: The latest polls Faced with these numbers, Republicans may be looking for an escape hatch from the damage Trump has done to their party. They may yet get one by the next presidential election, but are unlikely to get one before votes are counted for the midterms next week. In recent weeks, Trump has held a half dozen unhinged rallies throughout the country that are likely to do little to reassure voters about his performance on the economy, cost of living or foreign entanglements.
如果民调准确，这一失败策略可能导致民主党自水门事件以来最大的普选票胜利之一。
If the polls are right, this failed strategy could result in one of the largest popular-vote victories for the Democrats since Watergate.