关键事实：随着派拉蒙影业（Paramount）和甲骨文公司（Oracle）跻身美国企业界最大的借款者之列，它们与同一位人物——亿万富翁拉里·埃里森（Larry Ellison）之间的紧密联系开始在华尔街引发担忧。
Paramount Skydance Corp. and Oracle Corp. vault into the ranks of corporate America’s biggest borrowers, their links to the same man — billionaire Larry Ellison — are starting to stir angst on Wall Street.
许多投资者原本认为，如果派拉蒙因本周新增的520亿美元债务而陷入财务困境，埃里森会出手提供支持。然而，由于埃里森家族的大部分财富都投资在甲骨文的股票上，而甲骨文自身正在大力投资人工智能相关项目（这些项目需要大量资金），因此人们担心：在派拉蒙最需要帮助的时候，这个“安全网”的价值可能会受到威胁。
The assumption among many investors has been that Ellison would step in to support Paramount if it got in financial trouble after taking on $52 billion of additional debt this week to help pay for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. But with much of the Ellison family’s wealth tied to Oracle shares as the company undertakes its own capital intensive AI buildout, the worry is the value of that safety net could come under pressure just when Paramount needs it most. Those concerns are already being reflected in the market, money managers say.
据投资经理们表示，这些担忧已经反映在市场上：为这两家公司债务提供违约保险的成本正在趋同，投资者开始将它们的信用状况视为相互关联的。威灵顿管理公司（Wellington Management Co.）的投资组合经理坎佩·古德曼（Campe Goodman）指出：“在评估这两家公司的债务规模及执行风险时，贷款机构必须将它们视为一个整体。”
The cost to insure the debt of both companies against default has converged and is increasingly moving in lock-step, avestors are beginning to treat the two credits as intertwined. It’s another factor lenders need to consider when assessing the mounting debt and execution risk of the firms, according to Campe Goodman, a portfolio manager at Wellington Management Co.
古德曼补充说：“投资者应该将甲骨文和派拉蒙视为相互关联的‘投资对象’，而不仅仅是两个独立的借款方；因此，他们需要同时考虑自己对这两家公司的风险敞口。”派拉蒙和甲骨文的官方代表均未回应相关采访请求；试图通过埃里森的基金会联系他也未能得到任何回复。
“You have to consider your total Larry Ellison risk,” Goodman said, adding that investors should regard Oracle and Paramount as related bets rather than completely separate credits. “You probably want to consider your exposure to both.”Representatives for Paramount and Oracle didn’t respond to requests for comment. Attempts to reach Ellison through his foundation also went unanswered.
82岁的埃里森通过其家族信托基金为派拉蒙收购华纳兄弟公司（Warner Bros.）提供了重要支持——该信托基金为这笔约470亿美元的股权融资提供了保障。
Ellison, 82, is backstopping Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros., spearheaded by his son David, via a family trust that guaranteed a significant portion of the roughly $47 billion of equity financing for the deal.
然而，他的支持并不仅限于这次收购本身。在派拉蒙努力向评级机构说明合并后公司的债务负担时，埃里森家族承诺将在未来几年内采取一切必要措施来降低公司的杠杆率；评级机构和投资者都将这一承诺视为一种暗示：在需要时，埃里森家族会追加投资。
Yet his support also extends beyond the acquisition itself. As Paramount worked to reassure ratings firms about the debt burden the combined company would carry, the Ellison family pledged to take all necessary steps to help bring leverage down in the coming years — a commitment that credit graders and investors viewed as a tacit promise to inject additional capital if needed.
因此，埃里森是否能够兑现这一承诺，成为债权人评估其信用状况时的关键因素。
That makes Ellison’s ability to follow through on the pledge a key consideration for debtholders.
就在一年前，由于人们对人工智能技术的乐观情绪高涨，甲骨文的股价飙升至历史新高，使埃里森一度成为全球最富有的人。但从那以后，他的财富减少了近2000亿美元——根据彭博亿万富翁指数（Bloomberg Billionaires Index）的数据，这一降幅超过了全球任何其他富豪。
Just a year ago Oracle’s shares soared to a record amid surging AI optimism, briefly making him the world’s richest person. Since then, his fortune has plummeted by almost $200 billion — more than any other person on the globe, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
需要明确的是，他的财富目前仍约为1920亿美元，足以让他跻身全球最富有的人士之列。不过，他的财富波动幅度之大，充分显示出甲骨文股价对其财富的影响有多大。
To be clear, he’s still worth roughly $192 billion, enough to place him among the 10 richest people. But the sharp reversal shows how drastically his fortune can gyrate based on Oracle’s stock price.
上个月，埃里森取消了出售自己持有的（约占40%股份的）甲骨文股票的计划，并透露自己用于个人贷款的抵押股票数量也有所增加。
Last month, Ellison canceled a plan to sell billions of dollars worth of stock in the company, in which he still owns a roughly 40% stake.
“这两家公司的业务截然不同，但市场正通过一个共同的‘发起者’将它们联系在一起，”Advent Capital Management的投资组合经理史蒂文·施韦策（Steven Schweitzer）说道。“派拉蒙公司的信用状况在很大程度上与甲骨文的财务状况息息相关，因为拉里·埃里森的财务实力支撑着这两家公司的运营。”派拉蒙公司的融资计划已于周三完成，其中包括300亿美元的美国投资级债券、124亿美元的垃圾债券（即信用评级较低的债券），以及94.6亿美元的贷款。
He also disclosed he had increased the number of shares pledged as collateral for his personal loans. “The businesses couldn’t be more different, but the market is starting to connect them through a common sponsor,” said Steven Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at Advent Capital Management. “Part of the Paramount credit story is tied to confidence in the Oracle story, because Larry Ellison’s financial strength sits behind both.”Paramount’s financing package, which wrapped up Wednesday, included $30 billion of US dollar investment-grade bonds, $12.4 billion-equivalent of junk bonds and $9.46 billion of loans.
据市场人士透露，在收购谈判期间，考虑是否投资的投资者们一直在讨论该如何看待埃里森家族的承诺。
In conversations ahead of the sale, investors considering whether to buy in were actively discussing how much weight to put on the Ellison family’s pledge, according to market participants.
“问题在于：如果派拉蒙（Paramount）的经营状况不佳，导致甲骨文（Oracle）的股价大幅下跌，那么两者的资产基础其实仍然保持不变，而这正是两者之间可能存在关联的地方，”标准普尔全球评级公司（S&P Global Ratings）的分析师贾瓦德·侯赛因（Jawad Hussain）指出。这可能会引发市场质疑：“这是否会影响埃里森家族（Ellison family）支持派拉蒙资产的能力？”目前派拉蒙确实需要降低自身的杠杆率（即减少债务负担）。
“The issue is if Paramount’s not doing well and Oracle stock drops a lot, then you still have the same asset base, and that’s where there is potential linkage,” said Jawad Hussain, an analyst at S&P Global Ratings. That could leave the market asking, “‘could it impact the Ellisons’ ability to support the Paramount asset,’ which needs to de-lever.”Oracle, for its part, has nearly doubled its long-term debt to more than $160 billion over the past two years, as the company refashions itself as a provider of computing power for artificial intelligence work.
在过去两年中，甲骨文的长期债务几乎翻了一番，达到了1600亿美元以上；该公司正在转型为人工智能领域的计算能力提供商。根据彭博指数（Bloomberg index）的数据，甲骨文现已成为美国企业债券市场中的第五大债务发行人。
It now ranks as the fifth-largest borrower in the US corporate bond market, according to Bloomberg index data.
今年7月，标准普尔将甲骨文的信用评级下调至BBB-（最低的投资级评级），原因是其巨额支出导致公司的自由现金流（free cash flow）陷入负值区间。上个月，标准普尔又将派拉蒙的信用评级下调至BB级（距离垃圾级仅差两个等级），原因是预计在收购华纳兄弟（Warner Bros.）之后派拉蒙的杠杆率会进一步上升。
S&P in July cut Oracle to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, as heavy spending pushed free cash flow deeply into negative territory. Last month it lowered Paramount’s issuer credit rating to BB, two notches into junk, on expectations for increased leverage following the Warner Bros. acquisition.
甲骨文因债务而激增的支出也令股票投资者感到担忧；这一因素掩盖了其云计算业务强劲的增长势头，导致其股价在过去一年中下跌了超过50%。
Oracle’s debt-fueled spending surge has spooked equity investors, too, overshadowing robust growth in its cloud-computing division and driving a more than 50% decline in its share price over the past year.
GW&K投资管理公司（GW&K Investment Management）的投资组合经理布雷特·科兹洛夫斯基（Brett Kozlowski）表示，这种风险对派拉蒙和甲骨文的债权人来说都是双重的：“如果派拉蒙与华纳兄弟的合并未能按计划进行，埃里森家族的担保机制可能会对两者的信用评级产生比预期更严重的影响，”他通过电子邮件表示。“这可能导致两者的信用评级趋同，对派拉蒙更有利——因为派拉蒙的债务规模较小，有可能获得甲骨文更强大的资产负债表的支撑。”
Brett Kozlowski, a portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management, said that the risk cuts both ways for Paramount and Oracle debtholders. “There is risk to Oracle debt that if the Paramount/WBD merger isn’t executed as planned, the Ellison family backstop may link the two credits more than is priced,” he said via email. “This creates the potential of convergence between the two credits and benefits Paramount over Oracle as the weaker Paramount debt would get the potential support of the stronger Oracle balance sheet.”