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派拉蒙债务下降对借款者意味着麻烦Paramount Debt Drop Spells Trouble for Borrowers

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随着全球通胀担忧加剧,融资成本持续攀升。本周,美国高评级企业债券的平均收益率自2023年以来首次突破6%,美国市场的风险溢价也升至六个月来的最高水平。

Funding costs have surged as inflation fears have climbed globally. The average yield on a high-grade US corporate bond topped 6% this week for the first time since 2023, and risk premiums in the US climbed to their highest in six months.

企业正切实感受到这一影响。本周,派拉蒙天舞公司(Paramount Skydance Corp.)在多个市场发售了约500亿美元的收购融资债券,但短短数小时内这些债券价格便大幅下跌。汤品制造商金宝汤公司(Campbell’s Co.)以及贝恩资本信贷有限合伙公司旗下的私募信贷基金,本周发行的债券也遭遇需求疲软的情况。此外,包括巴西的MBRF Global Foods Co. SA在内的多家企业,均选择推迟在高收益债券市场的融资计划。

Companies are feeling the impact. Paramount Skydance Corp. sold about $50 billion of buyout debt across markets this week, only to see much of it weaken within hours. Soup maker Campbell’s Co. and Bain Capital Credit LP’s private credit fund found lackluster demand for their bond sales this week. And a handful of corporations, including Brazil’s MBRF Global Foods Co. SA, chose to delay financings in high-yield markets.

总体来看,今年余下时间里美国市场的债券发行节奏很可能会比投资者此前预期的还要放缓。今年迄今为止,美国高评级企业债券的发行规模增长了约30%,但预计本月该市场的投资级债券发行额仅为1000亿美元左右,这一数值不仅低于去年同期的1320亿美元,也远低于9月份近1950亿美元的发行规模。

The upshot is that the pace of issuance in the US for the rest of the year will probably slow down even more than investors had previously anticipated. High grade sales in the US year-to-date are up about 30%, but companies are expected to sell around $100 billion of investment-grade bonds in the US this month, down from $132 billion in the same month last year, and from nearly $195 billion in September.

“近期债券发行表现不佳,加之大量债券难以获得足够需求,预计今年年底前的债券发行规模将远不及预期,”Loop Capital资产管理公司的首席投资官斯科特·金博尔说道,“这种状况极有可能延续至2027年。”那些有能力推迟融资的企业也确实选择了观望。本周仅有四家企业发行了高评级债券,其中派拉蒙公司发行的300亿美元债券占据了绝大部分市场关注度。除了MBRF Global Foods推迟发行外,乌兹别克斯坦的跨国金矿开采企业Multinational Mine Group也取消了原定的五年期债券发售计划。

“Between some of the messy new issuance performance, coupled with bonds that can’t find enough demand, bond sales will underwhelm heading into year end,” said Scott Kimball, chief investment officer at Loop Capital Asset Management. “That could spill over into 2027 very easily.”Companies that can wait, are doing so. Only four borrowers tapped the US high-grade bond market this week, as Paramount’s $30 billion offering took up most of the oxygen.

实际上,派拉蒙公司数月前便计划融资,但因陷入法律诉讼不得不推迟。据估算,这一延迟可能使其每年需多支付约5亿美元的利息支出。

In addition to MBRF Global Foods’ delay, Multinational Mine Group, an Uzbek gold mining company, shelved a five-year note sale. Paramount had looked at borrowing months earlier, but was forced to wait as it faced litigation.

派拉蒙首席财务官丹尼斯·西内利对彭博社表示,公司债券价格在首个交易日出现下跌只是“市场的短期波动现象”。他补充道:“我们进入市场并非为了进行单日交易,而是为了完成一项具有变革意义的交易,从而打造一家新一代娱乐与科技公司。”

Waiting could have cost it around $500 million of annual interest expense by some estimates. Dennis Cinelli, Paramount’s chief financial officer, told Bloomberg that declines in the company’s debt in the first day of trading were “one-day choppiness in the market.”

R. Seelaus & Co.的首席执行官安妮·西洛斯指出,派拉蒙债券价格的走弱可能会令那些计划发行新债券的企业望而却步。由于高评级企业发行债券时往往会参考此类交易案例,这一情况可能影响整个市场的发行节奏。今年,为并购及人工智能投资提供资金的大规模债券发行一直是整体债券发行量增长的主要推动力。

He added: “We were in the market not for a one-day trade, but to execute a transformative transaction to create a next-generation entertainment and technology company.”The Paramount debt weakening could scare off companies planning to bring new debt deals as the high-grade market looks at transactions like these when deciding when to tap the market, said Annie Seelaus, chief executive officer at R. Seelaus & Co., a broker-dealer and asset management firm. Big bond deals funding acquisitions and artificial intelligence investment have been a key driver of overall issuance this year.

“发行方和承销团队都应当静下心来,认真评估此次事件的影响,”西洛斯周四在彭博电视上说道,“目前市场显然高度依赖这类大型交易的顺利实施。我们需要一段时间来消化这一事件的意义及其对未来的影响。”

“It’s important that issuers, syndicate desks, they all take a moment and really assess what happened here,” Seelaus said, speaking on Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

另一个不确定因素则是利率的走向。巴克莱银行周五发布报告指出,近期美国利率市场出现的快速下跌通常会导致信用市场表现疲软。该报告由哈里·马特尔和多米尼克·图布兰等策略师共同撰写,指出当美国10年期国债收益率在一个月内上升至少40个基点后,企业债券利差通常也会随之扩大。

“The market is clearly dependent on these jumbo transactions going well. It’s going to take a minute to digest exactly what this means and what it means going forward.”A key wildcard is where yields are headed. Fast selloffs in rates markets, like the one seen in the US in recent weeks, are typically followed by credit market weakness, according to a report from Barclays on Friday.

PGIM固定收益部门美国投资级企业债券联席主管大卫·德尔韦基奥认为,目前这种市场波动对需求的影响可能比利差变化更为显著。不过从长远来看,利率上升反而可能提升债券需求,因为更高的潜在收益会吸引养老基金等对利率变化敏感的投资者。

When the 10-year US Treasury yield rises by at least 40 basis points over a month, corporate bond spreads typically widen a bit later, according to the report from strategists including Harry Mateer and Dominique Toublan. That volatility is probably weighing on demand now more than spreads are, said David Del Vecchio, co-head of the US investment-grade corporate bonds at PGIM Fixed Income.

“虽然更高的综合收益率最终会提振需求,但许多投资者仍希望看到利率环境更为稳定后,才会更积极地投入资金,”他说道。

But in the long run, higher yields can boost demand, as the growing potential income from the securities draws in rate-sensitive investors like pension funds.

不过目前,投资者难以出手买入,因为尚不清楚收益率的升势会持续多久。景顺公司北美投资级信贷业务负责人马特·布里尔指出,这种情况很可能会影响到企业的借贷计划。

“Higher all-in-yields are ultimately supportive of demand, but many investors prefer to see a bit more stability in rates before deploying capital more aggressively,” he said. For now though, it’s harder for investors to buy, because it’s not clear how long yields will continue rising.

“必须借款的企业就只能支付更高的成本,”布里尔在周五接受彭博电视采访时说道,“而那些能够等待的企业则会选择观望。”本周,派拉蒙天舞公司发行了520亿美元的债务,用于支付收购华纳兄弟探索公司的资金,这堪称史上规模最大的收购融资案例之一。该公司分别在美国及欧洲贷款市场、美国投资级债券市场以及美欧高收益债券市场进行了融资,但这些债券在二级市场上的表现普遍不佳。

And that will probably filter down to companies’ borrowing plans, said Matt Brill, head of North American investment-grade credit at Invesco Ltd. “If you have to borrow, you’re going to have to pay up,” Brill said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Friday. “Those who can wait are going to try to wait.”

作为衡量美国信贷风险的指标,CDX投资级指数已升至4月份以来的最高水平。美国评级为CCC级的高风险垃圾债券的利差也自2023年以来首次突破10个百分点大关。通常而言,利差达到1000个基点即意味着企业陷入财务困境。

Paramount Skydance sold $52 billion of debt this week to help fund its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., in one of the biggest ever buyout financings. The company borrowed in the markets for US and European loans, US investment-grade bonds, and US and European junk bonds.

随着私募资产流动性日益下降且投资者赎回需求激增,美国证券交易委员会敦促金融行业加大力度对包括私募信贷在内的各类私募资产进行估值。在一份工作人员声明中,SEC并未推出新规则,但明确表示将重点关注各机构如何确定资产价值,以及如何向投资者披露这些价值与风险信息。

The debt broadly underperformed in the secondary market. The CDX Investment Grade index, a gauge of US credit risk, rose to its highest level since April.

几天后,阿波罗全球管理公司宣布,即将在其规模达8500亿美元的信贷业务板块推行每日定价机制。

Spreads on the riskiest junk bonds in the US, those rated in the CCC tier, crossed the 10 percentage point level for the first time since 2023.

博通公司牵头的华尔街银团正着手筹集600亿美元的新资金,用于支持Anthropic PBC及其他相关企业发展人工智能业务。参与此次大规模债务融资计划的各家银行即将发出相关文件,拟发行420亿美元规模的A类高级担保债券。

A spread of 1000 basis points is often associated with distress. The US Securities and Exchange Commission pressed the financial industry to put more effort into valuing private assets, including private credit, as those holdings become harder to sell and investor redemption requests surge.

这项融资计划酝酿数周之久,目前正受到华尔街与硅谷业界人士的密切关注。在公众对数据中心建设产生抵触情绪的背景下,该计划能否顺利实施将成为判断投资者是否仍愿意为人工智能产业发展提供资金支持的重要风向标。

In a staff statement, the SEC didn’t offer new rules, but signaled it will be focused on how firms determine what their stakes are worth and how those values and risks are disclosed to investors. A few days later, Apollo Global Management said it’s beginning to roll out daily prices across its $850 billion credit business.

欧盟已达成初步协议,拟将部分证券化产品的资本要求降低至多50%。此举旨在释放数十亿美元的额外资金,用于实现国防建设及气候适应能力提升等目标。

Broadcom Inc.’s Wall Street syndicate is starting to gather $60 billion of fresh AI chip financing to benefit Anthropic PBC and other companies. Banks involved in the massive debt package are poised to send out syndication letters for a $42 billion Class A senior-secured tranche.

多家多边开发银行现已正式开始采用合成风险转移、抵押债务证券等复杂的信贷工具。在各国政府削减对发展金融领域的支持力度,且气候变化与战争导致援助需求不断攀升的当下,这些银行试图借此扩大放贷能力并转移资产负债表上的风险。据悉,去年这些多边开发银行共同管理的开发类资产规模高达1.4万亿美元。

The financing, which has been taking shape for weeks, is being closely watched by professionals across Wall Street and Silicon Valley for reassurance that investors are still keen to back AI’s buildout amid a public backlash against data-center construction. The European Union reached a preliminary agreement to cut capital charges on some securitizations by as much as half as it seeks to unlock billions of additional funding to finance goals including defense and climate resilience. Multilateral development banks are formally embracing complex credit structures such as synthetic risk transfers and collateralized debt obligations.

阿波罗全球管理公司于周四开始为其规模达8500亿美元的信贷业务发布每日定价信息。此举正值美国证券交易委员会重新加强对私募资产估值监管之际。

They’re looking to expand their lending capacity and move risk off their balance sheets at a time when governments are cutting support and climate change and war add to the need for aid. Apollo Global Management Inc. began to roll out daily prices across its $850 billion credit business on Thursday, an effort that coincides with renewed attention from the US Securities and Exchange Commission on the valuation of private assets.

阿瑞斯管理公司成功募集到42亿美元,这一数额远超其最初设定的目标。所筹资金将用于设立其首只二级市场投资基金,为各类私募基金管理人提供资金支持。

Ares Management Corp. raised $4.2 billion — more than quadruple its initial target — for a debut secondaries fund that will provide capital to private managers. Multilateral development banks are formally embracing complex credit structures such as synthetic risk transfers and collateralized debt obligations to expand their lending capacity and move risk off their balance sheets.

努维恩通过竞争性招标程序,以面值的45%的价格抛售了其所持有的、价值约1.9亿美元的布赖特莱恩公司高级无担保市政债券。就在几天前,该公司还支持了布赖特莱恩的破产申请。

The shift, outlined in a joint statement, comes as governments cut support for the development finance sector while climate change and war increase demand for aid, with MDBs collectively overseeing some $1.4 trillion in development assets last year. Nuveen offloaded a roughly $190 million position in bankrupt railroad owner Brightline’s senior uninsured municipal bonds at 45 cents on the dollar through a competitive bidding process, just days after backing the company’s bankruptcy filing.

布赖特莱恩的破产重组计划能否顺利实施,取决于一项关键安排:该安排将重创那些持有该公司价值11亿美元高风险债券的对冲基金,而公司的大部分其他债务则基本不受影响。

Brightline’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy hinges on a plan that would crush hedge funds holding $1.1 billion of its riskiest bonds, while leaving much of its other debt largely intact.

中国清理不良消费信贷的工作进展不顺,原因在于监管部门正在严查在此过程中发挥关键作用的债务催收机构。目前,中国各银行正以大幅折价的方式,将大量违约消费贷款打包出售给专门处理此类资产的公司,这些公司通常会与债务催收机构合作以追回欠款。

China’s bad consumer debt cleanup is faltering as authorities scrutinize the debt collectors central to the effort. The country’s bank have been offloading bundles of defaulted consumer loans at steep discounts to firms that specialize in those assets, that often work with debt collectors to recoup funds.

作为这家英国银行持续改革的一部分,他被任命为欧洲及美洲地区企业与机构银行业务负责人。雷凯特此前曾担任花旗集团全球企业银行业务主席,今后将常驻伦敦并向迈克尔·罗伯茨汇报工作。

named as its head of corporate and institutional banking for Europe and the Americas as part of the continuing overhaul at the British lender. Rekate, who was most recently global chairman of corporate banking at Citigroup Inc., will be based in London and will report to Michael Roberts.

曾在某机构任职近30年的他现已出任该机构副董事长。该机构正致力于打造一个专注于中东及国际市场实物资产领域的咨询平台,业务范畴涵盖复杂融资、特殊情形处理以及私人信贷领域。

who spent nearly three decades at , has joined as vice chairman, with the firm building an advisory platform focused on real assets across the Middle East and international markets. The firm will specialize in complex financing, special situations and private credit.