根据玛丽亚·埃莱娜·维斯卡伊诺（Maria Elena Vizcaino）和卡罗莱纳·威尔逊（Carolina Wilson）的报道，来自Aegon USA Investment Management和JPMorgan Asset Management等机构的新兴市场投资者正在减少他们对高风险债券的投资。全球信贷市场的持续抛售趋势正在威胁到发展中国家债券市场的良好表现。
Emerging-market investors from Aegon USA Investment Management to JPMorgan Asset Management are dialing back their riskiest bond bets as the deepening selloff in global credit markets threatens to derail a stellar run for debt in the developing world. Dollar debt from countries in the emerging world returned 1.4% over the past year despite the recent turmoil that has sent yields on US Treasuries to the highest in nearly two decades.
尽管近期市场动荡导致美国国债收益率升至近二十年来的最高水平，但过去一年里，新兴市场国家的美元债券仍实现了1.4%的回报率。尽管油价维持在每桶100美元以上，投资者也预计全球利率将长期保持高位，但信用利差却已降至2007年以来的最低水平，这令资金管理者感到担忧，他们认为这些债券很可能会继续被抛售。
Even with oil above $100 a barrel and investors bracing for higher-for-longer global interest rates, credit spreads are at their tightest since 2007, raising alarm bells for money managers who say the bonds are bound to sell off.
“Aegon公司新兴市场债券部门的负责人杰夫·格里尔斯（Jeff Grills）表示：‘当政府债券的利率上升时，我会对信用利差的变化感到担忧。目前很难找到真正有投资价值的机会。’”格里尔斯最近减少了在哥伦比亚债券上的投资，同时增加了对印度尼西亚、沙特阿拉伯和菲律宾等信用评级较高的国家的债券投资。
“When we have rising government rates, I get a little concerned on what that does to the level of spread,” said Jeff Grills, the head of EM debt at Aegon. “When I look at where are the great opportunities, they are hard to find.”Grills recently trimmed his exposure to Colombia, while adding debt from higher-rated credits like Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and the Philippines.
他并不是唯一一个采取这种策略的人。在Neuberger Berman公司，戈尔基·乌尔基塔（Gorky Urquieta）也减少了在厄瓜多尔、多米尼加共和国和赞比亚等国家的高收益债券上的投资，并正在努力寻找新的方式来增加投资组合的风险敞口。乌尔基塔说：“我们目前采取了一种更为谨慎的投资策略。”
He’s not alone. At Neuberger Berman, Gorky Urquieta has reduced positions in high-yield debt from Ecuador, Dominican Republic and Zambia, and is struggling to find ways to add risk to the portfolio. “We’ve been a little bit more on a retrenchment mode,” Urquieta said.
这种撤资行为发生在新兴市场在面对全球利率急剧上升和中东冲突的情况下仍表现出惊人韧性的背景下。由于通胀居高不下以及美国经济依然强劲，交易者们预计美联储将采取更为激进的紧缩措施，从而导致美国国债收益率飙升。然而，新兴市场的美元债券至今仍保持了其收益水平。
The pullback comes after emerging markets proved surprisingly resilient through a sharp repricing in global rates and the conflict in the Middle East. Sticky inflation and a resilient US economy have fueled a surge in Treasury yields as traders price in more aggressive path for Federal Reserve tightening. Yet emerging-market dollar bonds have so far managed to hold on to gains.
根据摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）的数据，新兴市场国家的美元债券与美国国债之间的信用利差仅为170个基点，这是2007年以来的最低水平。
Spreads on developing-nation dollar bonds over US Treasuries stand at just 170 basis points, the tightest since 2007, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data.
这种相对强势正是令投资者感到不安的原因之一。在估值依然偏高且国债收益率大幅走高的情况下，新兴市场信贷在不出现利差扩大的情况下，已没有多少空间来承受另一轮全球利率冲击。彭博行业研究认为，美联储的政策是第四季度硬通货新兴市场债务面临的主要风险，并指出接近19年低点的利差可能会放大特定国家债券受到的影响。
That relative strength is part of what has investors uneasy. With valuations still rich and Treasury yields moving sharply higher, emerging-market credit has less room to absorb another global rates shock without spreads widening. Bloomberg Intelligence sees Fed policy as the main risk to hard-currency emerging-market debt in the fourth quarter, saying spreads near a 19-year low could amplify the impact of country-specific bonds.
谨慎情绪也开始在资金流向中显现。全球最大的追踪新兴市场硬通货债券的交易所交易基金（ETF）上周遭遇了自3月份以来单日最大规模的资金外流。
Caution is beginning to show up in fund flows, too. The world’s largest exchange-traded fund tracking emerging-market hard-currency bonds suffered some of its biggest single-day outflows since March last week.
一些投资者选择提高资产质量，而不是完全放弃新兴市场债务。在PPM America，马特·格雷夫斯（Matt Graves）通过增持摩洛哥等评级较高的借款人债券来增加久期，同时削减了一些年初表现强劲的风险较高头寸，例如安哥拉。
Some are opting to move up in quality rater than abandoning emerging debt all together. At PPM America, Matt Graves has been adding duration through higher-rated borrowers such as Morocco while paring some of the riskier positions, including Angola, that performed strongly earlier in the year.
另一些投资者则认为，国债抛售为受挫的投资级债券创造了机会。纽约施罗德投资（Schroders）的高级投资组合经理费尔南多·格里萨莱斯（Fernando Grisales）增持了沙特阿美（沙特阿拉伯国有石油和天然气公司）的票据以及墨西哥的美元债务。
Others see the Treasury selloff creating opportunities in beaten-down investment-grade bonds. Fernando Grisales, a senior portfolio manager at Schroders in New York, has added notes from Saudi Aramco, the state-owned national oil and natural gas company of Saudi Arabia, and Mexico’s dollar debt.
他表示：“在非常稳健的投资级信贷中，长端曲线的价值正在显现。”
“There is value opening up in the long end of the curve in investment grade credits that are very robust,” he said.
摩根大通资产管理公司则采取了不同的策略。其新兴市场债务主管皮埃尔-伊夫·巴罗（Pierre-Yves Bareau）降低了投资组合对信贷抛售的敏感度，并将部分风险转向了本币债券，包括墨西哥。他认为，墨西哥掉期市场对加息幅度的定价过高。
JPMorgan Asset Management is taking a different route. Pierre-Yves Bareau, its head of EM debt, has reduced the portfolio’s sensitivity to a credit selloff and shifted some of that risk toward local-currency bonds, including Mexico, where he says swap markets are pricing in too many rate hikes.
今年以来，本币债务平均仍上涨了0.9%，而衡量发展中国家股市的指标上涨了超过23%，表现优于发达国家股市。高企的本币利率和大宗商品价格也使得巴西和哥伦比亚等市场对投资者更具吸引力。
Local-currency debt is still up 0.9% on average this year, while a gauge of developing-nation stocks has gained more than 23%, outperforming developed-world equities. High local interest rates and elevated commodity prices have also helped make markets like Brazil and Colombia attractive to investors.
“我们的风险略低一些，”他说。“我们更多地通过本地市场而非信贷市场来承担对手方风险。”
“We are a little bit less at risk,” he said. “We’ve been taking the other side a bit more through the local markets rather than credit.”