美国选民对以色列政策的长期两党支持正在减弱，随着加沙地带的种族灭绝以及以色列持续占领约旦河西岸，越来越多的多数选民开始质疑无条件的美国军事援助和外交支持。
Longstanding bipartisan support for US policy toward Israel is weakening among American voters, with growing majorities questioning unconditional US military aid and diplomatic support following the genocide in Gaza and Israel’s continued occupation of the West Bank.
“我们在美国看到的情况相当前所未有，”英国以色列分析师丹尼尔·利维（Daniel Levy）向阿纳多卢通讯社表示。
"What we're seeing in the United States is quite unprecedented," British-Israeli analyst Daniel Levy told Anadolu.
他指出，跨越意识形态光谱的选民如今正在“从根本上质疑这种关系是否服务于美国、服务于美国纳税人、服务于美国的国家安全”。
Voters across ideological spectrums are now "questioning fundamentally whether this relationship serves America, serves the American taxpayer, serves American national security," he said.
利维还担任总部位于纽约的非营利组织“美国/中东项目”（US/Middle East Project）的负责人，他表示，广泛的竞选资金运作、机构游说以及媒体整合，使立法者得以隔绝于不断变化的公众情绪之外。
Levy, who also heads the New York-based non-profit US/Middle East Project, said extensive campaign finance, institutional lobbying, and media consolidation have insulated lawmakers from the shifting public mood.
他指出，这种紧张局势引发了一个关键问题：华盛顿能否维持与国家共识相悖的政策。
The tension, he noted, raises critical questions over whether Washington can maintain policies that run contrary to the national consensus.
利维以英国为例，称基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）领导的工党政府因领导人忽视选民对加沙和巴勒斯坦权利的看法而失去了支持。
Levy pointed to the UK, saying the former Labour government under Keir Starmer lost support after leaders ignored voters’ views on Gaza and Palestinian rights.
他说，这一转变使安迪·伯纳姆（Andy Burnham）和埃德·米利班德（Ed Miliband）上台执政，而这种情况可能在华盛顿重演。支持率的下降代表了一种全国性现象，而非孤立运动。
He said the shift, which brought Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband to power, could be replicated in Washington. The decline in support represents a nationwide phenomenon rather than an isolated movement.
皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）在三月进行的民调显示，60%的美国成年人对以色列持不利看法，这一比例从2025年的53%和2022年的42%上升而来。
Polling conducted by the Pew Research Center in March revealed that 60% of all US adults hold an unfavorable view of Israel, rising from 53% in 2025 and 42% in 2022.
该调查还显示，59%的受访者对以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Benjamin Netanyahu）几乎没有或完全没有信心。
The survey further revealed that 59% express little to no confidence in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
同样，马凯特大学法学院（Marquette Law School）在九月的调查发现，对以色列的有利看法已连续20个月下降。
Similarly, a Marquette Law School survey in September found that favorability toward Israel has been declining for 20 months.
最新的民调显示，59%的受访者对以色列持不利看法，55%的受访者认为华盛顿向以色列提供了过多的军事援助。
The latest polling showed 59% of respondents viewed Israel unfavorably, with 55% maintaining that Washington provides it too much military aid.
对以色列在加沙军事行动的总体支持率反映了这一下降趋势，盖洛普（Gallup）在2025年的全国支持率为32%，创历史新低，而60%的人表示反对。
Overall approval for Israel's military campaign in Gaza has mirrored this downward trajectory, with Gallup recording nationwide approval at a record-low 32% in 2025, while 60% voiced disapproval.
盖洛普二月份的一项民意调查发现，全国范围内对巴勒斯坦人的同情率首次以41%比36%的比例领先于以色列人。
A February Gallup poll found sympathy for Palestinians edging ahead of Israelis nationally for the first time at 41% to 36%.
《经济学人》/YouGov 9月份进行的一项调查显示，26%的美国人表示他们更同情以色列人，而25%的美国人更同情巴勒斯坦人，这是YouGov在这个问题上记录的最小差距。
An Economist/YouGov survey conducted in September showed 26% of Americans saying they sympathized more with Israelis, compared with 25% who sympathized more with Palestinians, the narrowest gap YouGov has recorded on the question.
AP-NORC 6月份的一项调查发现，31%的美国成年人表示以色列在加沙的军事行动构成种族灭绝。只有十分之二的人说他们不算种族灭绝。
An AP-NORC survey in June found that 31% of all US adults say Israel’s military actions in Gaza constitute genocide. Only two out of 10 said they do not count as genocide.
这些趋势促使以色列前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特（Naftali Bennett）承认。
These trends have prompted acknowledgement from former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
在7月份的一篇文章中，贝内特警告说，“公众舆论中存在一种令人不安的趋势，特别是在年轻的美国人中。"
In a July essay in TIME, Bennett warned of a "troubling trend in public opinion, particularly among younger Americans."
在他单独出现的播客中，他说以色列“现在与种族灭绝和婴儿杀手联系在一起”，就像意大利与“意大利面和意大利面条”联系在一起一样。利维说，为了应对美国公众支持率下降以及无法“证明自己的行为合理化”的情况，以色列通过扩大反犹太主义一词的定义来抓住反犹太主义。他说，许多犹太人“不买账”。
In a podcast he appeared separately, he said Israel is “now associated with genocide and baby killers," just like Italy is associated with “pasta and spaghetti.”To counter the decline in US public support and being unable to "justify its own actions," Levy said, Israel has latched onto antisemitism by expanding the definition of the term. Many Jewish people are “not buying this,” he said.
利维强调，对以巴冲突的立场现在是衡量选民政治诚信的根本标准。
Levy emphasized that stances on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict now function as a fundamental measure of political integrity for voters.
“关于以色列和巴勒斯坦的立场几乎已成为一个核心的真实性测试：我可以信任政治家吗？”利维说。“如果你不能解决这个问题……我们怎么能在其他事情上信任您呢？“支持率的削弱在共和党内部造成了重大裂痕，挑战了数十年的传统。
"Positions on Israel-Palestine have become almost a central authenticity test: Can I trust a politician?" Levy said. "If you can't get this issue right ... how can we trust you on anything else?" The erosion of support has opened significant fractures within the Republican Party, challenging decades of tradition.
皮尤研究中心的一项调查显示，57%的18岁至49岁共和党人现在对以色列持不利态度，这反映出美国优先运动内部反对外国支出和国际军事纠葛的推动。著名保守派人士对双边关系提出了直接批评。
A Pew survey indicated that 57% of Republicans aged 18 to 49 now view Israel unfavorably, reflecting a push within the America First movement against foreign expenditures and international military entanglements. Prominent conservative figures have voiced direct criticism of the bilateral relationship.
副总统JD Vance多次公开批评以色列官员反对特朗普政府与伊朗达成的临时协议以及以色列在黎巴嫩的军事行动。
Vice President JD Vance has publicly criticized Israeli officials on several occasions over their opposition to the Trump administration’s interim deal with Iran and over Israeli military operation in Lebanon.
媒体评论员塔克·卡尔森声称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已成为内塔尼亚胡“完全控制”下的“人质”，并将这种动态描述为“奴隶制”。“前众议员马乔里·泰勒·格林一直在质疑外国援助的优先事项，众议员托马斯·马西提出了一项修正案，取消美国对以色列的所有外国援助。这种不断变化的政治格局改变了传统的游说动态。
Media commentator Tucker Carlson claimed that US President Donald Trump had become a "hostage" under Netanyahu's "total control," characterizing the dynamic as "slavery." Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has been questioning foreign assistance priorities and Rep. Thomas Massie introduced an amendment to eliminate all US foreign assistance to Israel. This shifting political terrain has transformed traditional lobbying dynamics.
在密歇根州，共和党参议院提名人迈克·罗杰斯要求美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）不要代表他竞选或公开竞选民主党人阿卜杜勒·赛义德。
In Michigan, Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers requested that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) refrain from running s or campaigning openly on his behalf against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
利维说：“获得以色列游说团体的支持已经从对获得支持的候选人的祝福变成了诅咒。”
"Having the endorsement of the Israel lobby has gone from being a blessing for the candidate who is endorsed to a curse," Levy said.
捐助者通过最高法院公民联合裁决创建的独立支出渠道部署政治融资进行了调整。
Donors have adapted by deploying political financing through independent expenditure channels created by the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling.
利维说：“我们越来越多地看到……亲以色列的资金被用于没有提及以色列的竞选活动。”
"What we increasingly see … is pro-Israel money being used in campaigns where Israel isn't mentioned," Levy said.
虽然这种侵蚀跨越了所有人口结构，但这种鸿沟在美国年轻人中仍然最为明显。
While the erosion spans all demographics, the divide remains most pronounced among younger Americans.
利维说：“当你过滤年龄人口时，这种转变是最明显的，也是最引人注目的。”他将这种差异归因于年轻公民消费新闻的渠道。
"The shift is most stark, is most attention-grabbing when you filter for the age demographic," Levy said, attributing the divide to the channels through which younger citizens consume news.
他指出，年轻观众越来越多地绕过主流媒体，他认为主流媒体存在固有的偏见，并且仍然容易受到商业和政治压力的影响。调查反映了这种明显的梯度。
He noted that younger audiences increasingly bypass mainstream media, which he argued carries inherent biases and remains vulnerable to commercial and political pressures. Surveys reflect this stark gradient.
盖洛普发现，18至34岁成年人对以色列军事行动的支持率降至仅9%。
Gallup found that approval of Israel's military operations dropped to just 9% among adults aged 18 to 34.
皮尤5月份的一项调查显示，58%的30岁以下成年人对巴勒斯坦人持好感。
A Pew survey from May showed that 58% of adults under 30 hold a favorable view of the Palestinians.
此外，哈佛大学2026年春季青年民意调查发现，46%的18至29岁美国人认为与以色列的关系是一种负担，而只有16%的人认为与以色列的关系是一种好处。
In addition, Harvard University's Spring 2026 Youth Poll found that 46% of Americans aged 18 to 29 viewed ties with Israel as a burden, compared to only 16% who consider them a benefit.
利维解释说，代际分歧“不仅仅存在于民主党方面”，并指出“共和党方面的真正转变”甚至在“福音派基督教社区”也出现，该社区长期以来一直是支持以色列的重要支柱。
Levy explained that the generational divergence is "not just on the Democrat side," noting that "a real shift on the Republican side" is emerging even across "the evangelical Christian community," which long served as an essential pillar of backing for Israel.
代际强烈反对引发了2024年的大规模校园示威活动，首先是哥伦比亚大学的学生营地，该营地迅速扩展到全国130多所院校。
The generational backlash ignited mass campus demonstrations in 2024, starting with student encampments at Columbia University that quickly expanded across more than 130 institutions nationwide.
随后的警察突袭、停职和捐助者镇压进一步加剧了外交政策辩论与国内言论自由的关系。
Subsequent police raids, suspensions, and donor crackdowns further entwined foreign policy debates with domestic free expression.
利维否认了一种流行的说法，即美国支持率的下降只是对内塔尼亚胡和伊塔马尔·本·格维尔和贝扎列尔·斯莫特里奇等极右翼部长的孤立抵制。他将这场政治危机描述为深刻的结构性危机。
Levy rejected a prevailing narrative that the declining American support is merely an isolated backlash against Netanyahu and far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. He described the political crisis as deeply structural.
他说，亲以色列倡导网络内部的人士正在积极推动反内塔尼亚胡的言论，以维护更广泛的双边关系。
He said that elements within the pro-Israel advocacy network are actively pushing an anti-Netanyahu narrative to preserve broader bilateral ties.
利维认为，通过将责任完全归咎于现任领导层，机构捍卫者希望在即将到来的投票中选举失败将让他们宣布：“内塔尼亚胡走了！问题解决了”，并与美国公众重新建立外交“蜜月”。然而，利维强调，系统性政策远远超出了个人个性的范围。
By placing blame solely on the current leadership, Levy argued, institutional defenders hope an electoral defeat in the upcoming vote will let them declare, “Netanyahu’s gone! Problem solved,” and engineer a renewed diplomatic “honeymoon” with the American public. However, Levy stressed that systemic policies extend far beyond individual personalities.
利维说，参加即将到来的以色列选举的犹太复国主义政党都没有谈论“巴勒斯坦建国、结束占领、撤军、结束定居点”。
No Zionist party running in the upcoming Israeli elections is speaking about “Palestinian statehood, ending occupation, withdrawing, ending settlements," Levy said.
所谓温和反对派集团内的知名人士经常试图表现得“比内塔尼亚胡更极端”。“利维警告说，虽然政府更迭可能会让西方各国首都短暂松一口气，但在没有外部压力的情况下，占领和军事力量的核心政策将持续不变。
Prominent figures within the so-called moderate opposition bloc frequently attempt to appear "even more extreme than Netanyahu." Levy cautioned that while a change in government might generate a brief sigh of relief in Western capitals, the core policies of occupation and military force will persist unchanged in the absence of outside pressure.
展望未来，利维概述了三条可能的道路：尽管公众支持率下降，但继续支持以色列;决定性的决裂，使未来的美国政府的支持率下降;或者美国更深入地参与地区冲突，加速美国的衰落并使以色列日益孤立。他说：“以色列极端主义有一天会产生非常严重的效果。”
Looking ahead, Levy outlined three possible paths: continued support for Israel despite declining public backing; a decisive break that makes future US administrations less supportive; or deeper US involvement in regional conflicts that accelerates American decline and leaves Israel increasingly isolated.
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"Israeli extremism is going to boomerang very harshly one day," he said.