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关于移民问题,民主党人应该参考北欧模式On immigration, Democrats should look to the Nordic model

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当民主党和其他中左翼政党难以理解工人阶级选民为何转而反对他们时,他们很乐意寻求经济解释。然而,大多数人对面对蓝领愤怒的另一个强大驱动因素--不受控制的移民--犹豫不决。当然,这在一定程度上也是一个经济问题。但它也揭示了精英和大众舆论在国家主权、文化认同和民主机构决定谁可以进入自己的国家并成为公民等情感问题上存在的深刻分歧。

As Democrats and other center-left parties struggle to understand why working-class voters have turned against them, they reach readily for economic explanations. Yet most flinch from confronting another potent driver of blue-collar anger — uncontrolled immigration. Of course, that’s partly an economic issue too. But it also illuminates the deep rift between elite and popular opinion on emotive questions of national sovereignty, cultural identity and democratic agency in deciding who can enter one’s country and become a citizen.

阻止非法移民一直是特朗普总统最可靠的战斗口号。2016年,他呼吁美国免受大量“外国犯罪分子”的侵害,帮助他与非大学选民建立了牢固的联系。他在2024年复出时很好地回到了移民问题上,当时这些选民再次将这个问题列为首要问题,仅次于高生活成本。对大规模移民的敌意也是推动欧洲新民族主义民粹主义者的火箭燃料。

Stopping illegal immigration has been President Trump’s most reliable rallying cry. His call to wall America off from a flood of “criminal aliens” in 2016 helped him forge a strong bond with non-college voters. He went back to the immigration well in his 2024 comeback, when those voters again ranked the issue as a top concern, second only to high living costs. Hostility to mass migration also is the rocket fuel propelling neo-nationalist populists in Europe.

其中包括极右翼的德国另类选择党,该党最近在州选举中取得了惊人的进展;法国全国集会,目前在明年总统选举前的民意调查中领先,以及英国快速崛起的改革党。在整个西方,工人阶级选民感到被政治精英背叛了,他们向他们说教更多移民的总体经济利益,并贬低他们的怀疑,即使不是种族主义者,也是本土主义者。

These include the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which recently made startling gains in state elections; France’s National Rally, now leading polls ahead of next year’s presidential election, and the United Kingdom’s fast-rising Reform Party. Across the West, working-class voters feel betrayed by political elites who lecture them about the aggregate economic benefits of more immigration and belittle their doubts as nativist if not racist.

尽管这个问题持续突出,但很少有中左翼政党想出了如何化解它。丹麦是一个明显的例外。自2019年社会民主党上台以来,他们放慢了移民步伐,同时加快了驱逐不请自来的闯入者的速度。他们还积极采取行动将移民融入丹麦社会,通过了“平行社会”法律,防止他们集中在隔离社区。欧洲进步人士谴责这一转变是对右翼仇外心理的让步。

Despite the issue’s enduring salience, few center-left parties have figured out how to defuse it. Denmark is a conspicuous exception. Since the Social Democrats came to power in 2019, they have slowed the pace of immigration while speeding up deportation of uninvited gate crashers. They have also moved aggressively to integrate migrants into Danish society, passing “parallel society” laws to prevent their concentration in segregated communities. European progressives have decried the shift as a concession to right-wing xenophobia.

但去年六月赢得第三个总理任期的梅特·弗雷德里克森(Mette Frederiksen)坚称,限制性移民政策是她所在政党对社会团结的历史性承诺的组成部分。她告诉《纽约时报》:“作为一名传统的社会民主党思想家意味着你不能允许每个想加入你的社会的人都加入。”由于边界漏洞百出,“不可能有一个可持续发展的社会,特别是如果你像我们一样是一个福利社会。”

But Mette Frederiksen, who won her third term as prime minister last June, maintains that a restrictive migration policy is integral to her party’s historic commitment to social solidarity. “Being a traditional Social Democratic thinker means you cannot allow everyone who wants to join your society to come,” she told the New York Times. With porous borders, “it’s impossible to have a sustainable society, especially if you are a welfare society, as we are.”

弗雷德里克森认为,接纳更少的移民并加快他们融入丹麦生活是维持公众支持高税收的关键,以支持丹麦慷慨的福利国家,从而纠正经济不平等。这种做法使她的政党能够阻止工人阶级叛逃,同时边缘化极右翼的丹麦人民党。她还强调了美国和欧洲许多左翼人士似乎没有注意到的一个关键点:大规模移民的经济和社会成本--就业竞争和蓝领工资的下降压力、与帮派相关的暴力、学校、住房、公共卫生和其他服务的压力--分布并不均匀。

Fredericksen believes admitting fewer migrants and speeding their assimilation into Danish life are key to sustaining public support for the high taxes necessary to support Denmark’s generous welfare state, which corrects for economic inequality. That approach has enabled her party to stem working class defections while marginalizing the hard-right Danish Peoples’ Party. She also emphasizes a critical point that seems to elude many on the U.S. and European left: The economic and social costs of large-scale immigration — competition for jobs and downward pressure on blue collar wages, gang-related violence, strains on schools, housing, public health and other services — are not distributed evenly.

他们对工薪阶层的打击比受过高等教育和富裕的丹麦人更大。斯堪的纳维亚其他国家的中左翼政府正在效仿丹麦。首相乔纳斯·加尔·Store的“挪威计划”包括呼吁制定“更明确、更严格”的移民法,收紧家庭团聚的规则,加快驱逐不符合庇护资格的移民,并打击帮助人们非法进入该国的犯罪团伙。瑞典社会民主党历史上是一个工人阶级政党,也在移民问题上发生了180度大转变。

They fall more heavily on wage earners than highly educated and well-heeled Danes. Center-left governments in other Scandinavian countries are following Denmark’s lead. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store’s “Plan for Norway” includes calls for “clearer and stricter” immigration laws that tighten rules around family unification, speed up deportation of immigrants who don’t qualify for asylum and combat criminal gangs that help people enter the country illegally. Sweden’s Social Democrats, historically a working-class party, also have executed a U-turn on immigration.

“我们拥有欧洲最慷慨的庇护制度之一,但这是错误的,”该党领导人马格达莱娜·安德森承认,她正在努力组建中左翼执政联盟。

“We had one of the most generous asylum systems in Europe, and that was wrong,” admits the party leader Magdalena Andersson, who is working to form a center-left governing coalition.

长期以来一直钦佩北欧经济模式的民主党人应该学习北欧移民新模式。与特朗普及其虐待狂追随者斯蒂芬·米勒的残酷暴力策略形成鲜明对比,它为遏制非法移民提供了一条人道的途径。然而,该党尚未考虑到拜登-哈里斯政府的移民灾难。拜登放宽了庇护和假释规则,直到2024年,几乎没有努力确保边境安全。移民看到了绿灯,并以创纪录的数量涌入。

Democrats, who have long admired the Nordic economic model, should learn from the new Nordic model on immigration. It offers a humane path to curbing illegal migration in contrast to the cruel and violent tactics of Trump and his sadistic henchman Stephen Miller. The party, however, has yet to reckon with the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration debacle. Biden loosened asylum and parole rules and until 2024 made little effort to secure the border. Migrants saw the green light and surged across it in record numbers.

选民不会相信民主党会执行移民法,直到他们彻底打破“非刑事化”和开放边境的进步要求。他们应该记住,尽管巴拉克·奥巴马总统和比尔·克林顿总统因强有力的驱逐计划而受到左翼和移民权利团体的猛烈抨击,但仍控制着非法移民。民主党人敏锐地意识到经济和技术变革如何破坏了美国工薪阶层向上流动的前景。同样的力量引发了21世纪的大规模移民,并引发了民众的强烈反对。

Voters won’t trust Democrats to enforce immigration laws until they break emphatically with progressive demands for “decriminalization” and open borders. They should recall that Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton kept illegal immigration under control despite taking flak from the left and immigrant rights’ groups for robust deportation programs. Democrats are keenly attuned to how economic and technological change have undermined working Americans’ prospects for upward mobility. The same forces have sparked the mass migrations of the 21st century — and a furious popular backlash.

为了对传统的工人阶级选民保持信心,中左翼政党需要证明他们能够以符合自由主义和社会民主主义原则的方式控制边境、限制非法入境并同化新来者。北欧模式表明这并非一项不可能完成的任务。威尔·马歇尔是进步政策研究所的创始人兼所长。

To keep faith with their traditional working-class constituents, center-left parties need to show they can control borders, restrict illegal entry and assimilate newcomers in ways consistent with liberal and social democratic principles. The Nordic Model shows that’s not a mission impossible. Will Marshall is founder and president of Progressive Policy Institute.