李康国是日本立命馆大学经济研究生院教授。自李在明总统上任以来，韩国股市既带来了兴奋，也带来了绝望。KOSPI从2025年6月4日的2，770增加到今年6月22日的9，115增加了两倍多。然后是崩溃和极端波动。到7月30日，它已降至5,593，然后在9月恢复到6,870。29.李明博政府在解决“韩国折扣”方面值得赞扬。“李明博总统宣布了一项将资金从房地产市场转移到股票市场的计划。政府三次修改《商业法》，以加强股东权利和改善公司治理，包括扩大董事对股东的信托责任，并对大公司引入强制累积投票。它还撤回了收紧大股东税收起征点的计划，并对高股息公司的股息收入实行单独征税。
Kang-Kook Lee is a professor at Ritsumeikan University's Graduate School of Economics in Japan. Since President Lee Jae Myung took office, South Korea's stock market has delivered both euphoria and despair. The KOSPI more than tripled from 2,770 on June 4, 2025, to 9,115 on June 22 this year. Then came the crash and extreme volatility. By July 30, it had fallen to 5,593 before recovering to 6,870 on Sept. 29. The Lee government deserves some credit for addressing the "Korea discount." President Lee announced a plan to shift money from the real estate market to the stock market. The government amended the Commercial Act three times to strengthen shareholder rights and improve corporate governance, including by expanding directors' fiduciary duties to shareholders and introducing mandatory cumulative voting for large corporations. It also withdrew plans to tighten the major-shareholder tax threshold and introduced separate taxation of dividend income from high-dividend companies.
然而，繁荣的主要引擎不是政府政策，而是企业盈利，尤其是人工智能驱动的半导体繁荣例如，SK Hynix记录了约47万亿韩圆2025年营业利润（350亿美元），而其2026年利润预计约为267万亿韩圆KOSPI-上市公司营业利润预计将从2025年的245万亿韩圆增加到2026年的800万亿韩圆以上。
However, the main engine of the boom was not government policy but corporate earnings, above all the AI-driven semiconductor boom For example, SK Hynix recorded about 47 trillion won ($35 billion) in operating profit in 2025, while its 2026 profit is projected at roughly 267 trillion won KOSPI-listed companies' operating profits are expected to rise from 245 trillion won in 2025 to more than 800 trillion won in 2026.
然而，自六月份以来，市场变得危险地波动，促使一些外国媒体将韩国股市描述为类似于赌场。这在一定程度上与5月27日推出的所谓2x Daily有关，该基金的每日回报率是与三星电子和SK Hynix相关的主要国内蓝筹股杠杆单一股票交易所交易基金（ETF）的两倍。这些产品旨在提供两倍于基础股票的每日回报，可以通过每日再平衡放大市场走势。这一点尤其重要，因为这两家公司加起来几乎占KOSPI市值的一半。
Yet the market has become dangerously volatile since June prompting some foreign media outlets to describe the South Korean stock market as resembling a casino. This was partly linked to the launch on May 27 of so-called 2x daily -- which deliver twice the daily return of major domestic blue-chip stocks leveraged single-stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Designed to deliver twice the daily return of the underlying stocks, these products can amplify market movements through daily rebalancing. This was particularly significant because the two companies together accounted for almost half of the KOSPI's market capitalization.
其后果是严重不稳定，随后股价大幅下跌。KOSPI指数从峰值下跌39%至7月份的低点，而小型科技公司的股票市场Kosspel指数从4月份的峰值下跌47%。自2000年以来，KOSPI上的断路器仅被激活了15次，但其中6次激活发生在5月27日之后。杠杆ETF还吸引了少数股票的流动性。7月份，它们的日均交易额达到约13万亿韩圆，而科索岛的日均交易总额大幅下降。许多科索米尔股票的价值损失了一半，对散户投资者的打击尤其严重。
The consequences were serious instability, followed by a sharp decline in stock prices. The KOSPI fell 39% from its peak to its July low, while the Kosdaq, the stock market for smaller technology firms, plunged 47% from its April peak. Circuit breakers had been activated only 15 times on the KOSPI since 2000, yet six of those activations occurred after May 27. The leveraged ETFs also sucked liquidity toward a handful of stocks. Their average daily trading value reached about 13 trillion won in July, while total daily trading on the Kosdaq fell significantly. Many Kosdaq stocks lost half their value, hitting retail investors particularly hard.
政府最终收紧了规定，将所需押金从1000万韩圆提高到3000万韩圆。但这一事件引发了人们对这些产品为何如此迅速推出的疑问。政府辩称，他们可以阻止韩国投资者在海外投资类似产品，从而减轻韩圆的压力。但这个理由并不特别有说服力。政府可能过于关注刺激KOSPI，也许是为了在6月3日全国地方选举之前获得更大的政治支持。
The government eventually tightened the rules, raising the required deposit from 10 million to 30 million won. But the episode raises questions about why these products were introduced so rapidly. The government argued that they could prevent South Korean investors from investing in similar products overseas, thereby reducing pressure on the won. But this justification was not particularly persuasive. The government may have been overly focused on stimulating the KOSPI, perhaps in an effort to gain greater political support ahead of nationwide local elections on June 3.
6月30日，韩国总统李在明（右四）在有关该国西南部先进产业发展的公开简报会上与韩国高级科技高管合影。
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, fourth from right, poses with senior South Korean tech executives on June 30 during a public briefing on the development of advanced industry in the nation's southwest.
今年上半年股市飙升也与韩圆大幅贬值同时发生。尽管韩国上半年经常账户盈余达到1，910亿美元，几乎是一年前水平的四倍，但韩圆兑美元汇率从2026年初的1，435韩圆兑美元汇率升至1，548韩圆兑美元汇率。
The stock market surge in the first half of this year also coincided with a sharp depreciation of the won. The won-dollar exchange rate rose from 1,435 won per greenback at the beginning of 2026 to 1,548 on July 1 -- even as South Korea's current account surplus reached $191 billion in the first half, nearly four times the level a year earlier.
原因之一是半导体出口商赚取了大量外汇，但没有将这些美元兑换成韩圆，部分原因是海外投资和未来汇率的不确定性。更重要的是外国出售韩国股票，2026年上半年价值达1100亿美元。随着KOSPI飙升，外国机构出售股票，将其持有的韩国股票带回目标权重，给韩圆带来压力。这引发了人们对韩国国家养老金服务体系（NPS）作用的质疑。
One reason was that semiconductor exporters earned enormous amounts of foreign currency but did not convert those dollars into won, partly because of uncertainty over overseas investment and future exchange rates. More important was foreign selling of South Korean equities, amounting to $110 billion in the first half of 2026. As the KOSPI soared, foreign institutions sold shares to bring their South Korean holdings back toward their target weights, putting pressure on the won. This raises questions about the role of South Korea's National Pension Service (NPS).
随着韩国股市飙升，国内股市占韩国投资组合的比例从3月底的21%左右上升至6月中旬的约30%。5月28日，央行将国内股票目标配置从14.9%提高至20.8%，并扩大允许范围，允许国内股票达到28.8%。
As South Korean stocks surged, domestic equities rose from around 21% of the NPS portfolio at the end of March to roughly 30% by mid-June. On May 28, the NPS raised its target allocation to domestic equities from 14.9% to 20.8% and widened the allowable range, permitting domestic equities to reach 28.8%.
这一决定是可以理解的，因为韩国股票当时正在产生非凡的回报。但这也造成了一个悖论。通过在市场过热期间增加国内股票投资，国家银行可能增强了繁荣。这反过来可能鼓励韩国个人投资者涌向股市并过度借贷，从而放大市场波动。韩国央行改变投资策略，促使外国机构重新平衡投资组合，可能也是导致韩元走软的原因之一。银行不仅应寻求最大化回报，而且有责任促进金融稳定。
The decision was understandable because Korean equities were generating extraordinary returns at the time. But it also created a paradox. By increasing its domestic-equity exposure during an overheated market, the NPS may have reinforced the boom. This, in turn, may have encouraged South Korean individual investors to flock to the stock market and borrow excessively, thereby amplifying market volatility. The NPS's changed investment strategy may also have contributed to the won's weakness by prompting foreign institutions to rebalance their portfolios. NPS should not only seek to maximize returns; it also has a responsibility to contribute to financial stability.
还有另一个问题：股价上涨并不会自动带来广泛共享的繁荣。截至2025年底，韩国约有1450万名个人股票投资者。然而，股票所有权却极其集中。前1%和前10%的人分别持有约60%和84%的股票资产，而底层60%的人仅持有1.9%。因此，股市的繁荣并不能等同于家庭财富的广泛增长。
There is another problem: Rising stock prices do not automatically lead to broadly shared prosperity. At the end of 2025, South Korea had roughly 14.5 million individual stock investors. Yet stock ownership was extraordinarily concentrated. The top 1% and top 10% owned about 60% and 84% of total stock assets, respectively, while the bottom 60% held just 1.9%. A booming stock market, therefore, cannot be equated with broadly rising household wealth.
因此，韩国股市最近的过山车或“过山车KOSPI”提供了警示教训。当买不起房的年轻人转向杠杆ETF希望快速致富并最终遭受巨额损失时，金融财富变得越来越集中，事情就出了问题。此外，由于房价持续上涨，将资金从房地产市场转移到股市的尝试并没有成功。
Thus, the recent roller coaster in the South Korean stock market, or the "roller KOSPI," offers a cautionary lesson. When young people, unable to afford housing, turn to leveraged ETFs in the hope of getting rich quickly and ultimately suffer large losses, while financial wealth becomes increasingly concentrated, something has gone wrong. Moreover, the attempt to move money from the real estate market to the stock market has not been successful, as property prices have continued to rise.
去年初，李明博政府提议在其总统任期内将基准指数KOSPI提高至5，000。然而，目标不应该是“KOSPI 5，000”，甚至不应该是9，000。韩国政府不应该仅仅因为KOSPI的崛起而宣称胜利。衡量其成功的标准不应是指数攀升多高，而应是它是否有助于建立更有生产力、更稳定和更包容的经济。
Early last year, the Lee administration proposed to boost the benchmark index KOSPI to 5,000 during his presidency . However, the goal should not be" KOSPI 5,000 ", or even 9,000. The South Korean government should resist claiming victory simply because the KOSPI has risen. Its success should be measured not by how high the index climbs, but by whether it helps build a more productive, stable, and inclusive economy.