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交易者指南:如何应对马来西亚2027年预算计划A Trader’s Guide to Navigating Malaysia’s 2027 Budget Plan

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文/陶伯纳德和黄马库斯 马来西亚的消费股和建筑股可能成为明年支出计划的受益者,因为总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣寻求在保持财政审慎的同时缓解生活成本。

Malaysia’s consumer and construction stocks may emerge as beneficiaries of next year’s spending plan as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim seeks to ease living costs while maintaining fiscal prudence.

身兼财政部长的安瓦尔预计将在周五公布年度预算案时,宣布支持家庭和维持基建开支的措施。投资者也将密切关注。尽管马来西亚经济保持韧性,但油价再度攀升推高了燃油补贴成本,可能拖累财政前景和投资者信心。这项支出计划是在2028年初举行全国大选之前推出的,当时安瓦尔正寻求在最近州选挫折后重建公众支持。

Anwar, who also serves as finance minister, is expected to announce measures to support households and sustain infrastructure spending when he unveils the annual budget on Friday. Investors will also be on While Malaysia’s economy remains resilient, a renewed climb in oil prices is driving up fuel-subsidy costs, potentially weighing on the fiscal outlook and investor confidence. The spending plan ahead of a national election due early 2028 comes as Anwar seeks to rebuild public support following recent state poll setbacks.

RHB Research分析师Alexander Chia表示:“考虑到第16届大选临近,这将是一份‘民生预算案’。针对中低收入群体的社会保障举措将利好消费、房地产、交通和医疗保健板块。” 受财政和政治风险拖累,该国股市基准指数今年下跌近3%,表现落后于包括泰国和越南在内的部分东南亚同行。截至2026年,外资净卖出了15.9亿美元的本地股票。

“Given the proximity to the 16th general elections, this will be a people’s budget,” said Alexander Chia, analyst at RHB Research. “Social protection initiatives targeted at the lower and mid-income groups will be positive for the consumer, property, transport, and healthcare sectors.”The country’s stock benchmark has fallen nearly 3% this year, lagging some Southeast Asian peers including Thailand and Vietnam, as fiscal and political risks weigh. Foreign funds have sold $1.59 billion of local shares on a net basis so far 2026.

以下是2027年预算案宣布时值得关注的几个关键领域:2027年预算案有望纳入定向援助和提振工资的措施,因为政府寻求缓解通胀上升对生活成本的影响。Apex Securities分析师Wong Kai Heng表示,现金援助预计将从2026年的150亿令吉增至约170亿令吉(约41.6亿美元),这应该能支撑大众消费。

Here are some key areas to watch in the 2027 budget announcement: Budget 2027 is poised to include targeted assistance and measures to boost wages as the government seeks to temper the prospect of rising inflation on the cost of living. A likely increase in cash handouts to around 17 billion ringgit ($4.16 billion) from 15 billion ringgit in 2026 should support mass-market consumption, according to Apex Securities analyst Wong Kai Heng.

这将使99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd.和Padini Holdings Bhd.等零售商,以及雀巢马来西亚、CCK Consolidated Holdings Bhd.和Oriental Kopi Holdings Bhd.等食品饮料公司受益。

That should benefit retailers such as 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd. and Padini Holdings Bhd., as well as food and beverage companies including Nestle Malaysia Bhd., CCK Consolidated Holdings Bhd. and Oriental Kopi Holdings Bhd.

分析师预计发展支出将温和增加,这将持续支持基础设施投资。2027年财政预算案下的重点项目可能包括槟城轻快铁、霹雳北部供水计划以及东马基础设施建设项目。

Analysts expect a modest increase in the development expenditure, which would provide continued support for infrastructure investment. Key projects that could feature under Budget 2027 include light rail transit in Penang, the Northern Perak Water Supply Scheme and basic infrastructure projects in East Malaysia.

CIMB证券分析师黄丽芳在报告中写道:“发展支出扩大的潜在受益者将集中在涉及水利基础设施及管道更换、防洪减灾、农村基建、电网投资,以及沙巴和砂拉越项目的承包商和供应商身上。”

“Potential beneficiaries of development expenditure expansion would be concentrated among contractors and suppliers exposed to water infrastructure and pipe replacement, flood mitigation, rural infrastructure, grid investment, and projects in Sabah and Sarawak,” Ivy Ng Lee Fang, an analyst at CIMB Securities, wrote in a report.

这可能提振建筑业公司,包括Gamuda Bhd.、IJM Corp.和Malayan Cement Bhd.。

That may boost firms in the construction industry, including Gamuda Bhd., IJM Corp. and Malayan Cement Bhd.

RHB Research分析师Max Koh表示,政府可能拨款升级国家电网和水利基础设施,以支持数据中心不断增长的需求。

The government may allocate funds to upgrade the national grid and water infrastructure to support rising demand from data centers, according to Max Koh, an analyst at RHB Research.

更多资金投入,加上国家能源转型路线图下的努力,可能使YTL Power International Bhd.和Tenaga Nasional Bhd.等能源公司受益。同时,Samaiden Group Bhd.和Solarvest Holdings Bhd.也可能从新的太阳能招标中获益。

Greater funding, along with efforts under the National Energy Transition Roadmap, may benefit energy firms like YTL Power International Bhd. and Tenaga Nasional Bhd. Meanwhile, Samaiden Group Bhd. and Solarvest Holdings Bhd. may also gain from new solar tenders.

债券市场投资者将关注财政赤字目标以及2027年的债务供应情况,因为能源成本上升。任何可能影响政府财政整顿努力的进一步补贴都可能打击投资者情绪。

Investors in the bond market will be focused on the fiscal deficit target as well as the debt supply for 2027 amid higher energy costs. Any further subsidies that could impact the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts may weigh on investor sentiment.

Maybank Securities固定收益研究主管Winson Phoon表示:“审慎的财政政策越来越受到市场青睐。我们预计将进一步朝着政府中期财政目标——即国内生产总值(GDP)的3%——迈进,可能设定GDP的3.3%作为目标。”他补充道,鉴于国家能源巨头Petroliam Nasional Bhd.可能分红更多,任何财政偏差都应保持在可控范围内。

“Prudent fiscal policy is increasingly appreciated by markets,” said Winson Phoon, head of fixed‑income research at Maybank Securities. “We expect further progress toward the government’s medium-term fiscal target of 3% of gross domestic product, potentially setting a target of 3.3% of GDP.”Any fiscal slippage should remain contained, given the potential for more dividends from state energy giant Petroliam Nasional Bhd., Phoon added.

全球资金在第三季度涌入马来西亚债券市场近32亿美元,根据马来西亚国家银行的数据,这是自去年最后三个月以来最大的单季资金净流入。

Global funds poured nearly $3.2 billion into Malaysia’s bonds in the third quarter, according to data from Bank Negara Malaysia, which was the largest quarterly inflow since the final three months of last year.