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马加尔将公布预算案,看涨交易员关注匈牙利欧元计划Magyar to Unveil Budget as Bullish Traders Eye Hungary Euro Plan

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彼得·马扎尔 摄影师:维克托·达布科夫斯基/彭博社Peter Magyar Photographer: Wiktor Dabkowski/Bloomberg

总理彼得·马加尔将于周一公布其2027年预算案,市场对其能够展示一条将国家引领至欧元区的路径抱有高度期待。

Prime Minister Peter Magyar is set to unveil his 2027 budget on Monday, with expectations running high in the market that he can show a path to steer the country toward the euro area.

这位总理在赢得四月选举后仅半年就职,将于布达佩斯当地时间下午1点向议会提交财政计划。马加尔表示,此次演讲很可能是他迄今为止最重要的一次,自他在压倒性胜利中击败维克托·奥尔班以来,他已在议会发表了一系列炽热的周例主题演讲。

The premier, barely half a year into the job after winning April’s election, will present the fiscal plan to parliament at 1 p.m. in Budapest. Magyar said the speech will probably be his most significant so far, after a string of fiery weekly keynote addresses in the chamber since defeating Viktor Orban in a landslide.

该预算案将首次详细展示马加尔的新政府计划如何实现其雄心:将赤字从国内生产总值的7%以上削减至3%的水平,以满足在其四年任期结束前加入欧元区的标准。

The budget plan will give the first detailed view into how Magyar’s new government plans to meet its ambition of cutting the deficit from more than 7% of gross domestic product to the 3% level needed to meet the criteria for joining the euro by the end of his four-year term in office.

今年匈牙利资产的超额表现提高了马加尔为市场带来积极惊喜的门槛,但ING银行指出,“总体叙事显然正朝着积极方向发展”。

The outperformance of Hungarian assets this year has raised the bar for Magyar to deliver a positive surprise for the market, though the “overall narrative is clearly moving in a positive direction,” according to ING Bank.

ING银行分析师彼得·维罗瓦茨和弗兰蒂谢克·塔博尔斯基上周在一份报告中写道:“匈牙利仍然是中东欧的关键故事,资产类别中的长期头寸远高于其他国家,这得益于选举后独特的叙事以及欧元采纳的前景。”“市场的主要焦点在于财政政策和明年的草案预算。”根据马加尔周末的一则社交媒体帖子,他承诺将向家庭、匈牙利企业、退休人员、教育和医疗提供更多资金,同时削减国家机器的开支。

“Hungary remains the key CEE story, with by far the largest long positioning across asset classes, driven by the idiosyncratic post-election narrative and prospects for euro adoption,” ING analysts Peter Virovacz and Frantisek Taborsky wrote in a note last week. “The primary market focus is on fiscal policy and the draft budget for next year.”Magyar is promising to deliver more money to families, Hungarian businesses, pensioners, education and healthcare, while reducing outlays on the state apparatus, according to a social media post at the weekend.

他已经开始从与奥尔班政权有关联的大亨那里重新分配资源,并计划引入财富税,以使公共财政更加公平。

He has already started reallocating resources from tycoons connected to Orban’s regime and plans to introduce a wealth tax to make public finances more equitable.

马扎尔承诺放弃福林转而采用欧元,使其成为今年欧洲新兴市场货币中表现最好的货币。匈牙利货币在2026年对欧元升值近6%,而波兰兹罗提和捷克克朗则出现走弱。

Magyar’s pledge to ditch the forint in favor of the euro has turned it into the best-performer among emerging-market currencies in Europe this year. The Hungarian currency has gained almost 6% against the euro in 2026, while the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna have weakened.

在债券市场,匈牙利的本币收益率几乎低于评级更高的波兰一个百分点。在奥尔班任期末期,匈牙利和罗马尼亚共享了欧盟最高的两个借贷成本。

In the bond market, Hungary’s local-currency yields trade almost a full percentage-point below higher-rated Poland. Toward the end of Orban’s term, Hungary and Romania shared the two highest borrowing costs in the European Union.

周一的财政公告也将对布达佩斯央行产生影响,该央行将在次日召开会议以决定利率。

Monday’s fiscal announcement will also have repercussions for the central bank in Budapest, which will meet on the following day to decide on interest rates.

政策制定者在9月暂停了宽松政策,以便留出时间考虑预算。ING表示,央行本周可能仍会保持谨慎并维持观望。根据该报告,更多宽松可能在12月及明年跟进。

Policymakers paused their easing in September to give themself time to consider the budget. ING said the central bank will probably still play it safe and remain on hold this week. More easing may follow in December and next year, according to the note.

一些策略师仍认为,尽管匈牙利资产已经处于较高配置水平,但仍有上涨空间。布达佩斯的债务机构表示,可信的欧元采纳计划提供了一条通往共同货币区目前较低收益率的可靠途径。

Some strategists still see room for Hungary’s assets to gain despite the already heavy positioning. The debt agency in Budapest says a credible euro adoption plan offers a reliable route toward the lower yields prevailing in the common currency area.

除了预算和欧元计划外,随着匈牙利开始获得因奥尔班政策被冻结、在马扎尔胜利后解冻的超过160亿欧元(180亿美元)欧盟资金,福林也将获得提振,Macro Hive Ltd.的高级新兴市场策略师西蒙·基哈诺-埃文斯如此表示。

Besides the budget and euro plans, the forint will also get a boost as Hungary starts receiving more than €16 billion ($18 billion) in EU funds that were frozen due to Orban’s policies and released after Magyar’s victory, said Simon Quijano-Evans, senior EM strategist at Macro Hive Ltd.

基哈诺-埃文斯表示,福林在未来几周有望朝着每欧元约355福林的更强水平迈进,而目前汇率约为每欧元363福林。

The forint has the potential to drift toward stronger levels around 355 per euro in the coming weeks compared with around 363 currently, Quijano-Evans said.

Macro Hive分析师表示,政策制定者若迅速启动欧元加入进程,将产生一种“自我实现”的积极趋势,从而对福林形成进一步升值压力。

A swift move by policymakers to get started on the euro accession path would produce a “self-fulfilling” positive trend, resulting in further appreciation pressure for the forint, the Macro Hive analyst said.

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