Hungary’s central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged for a second month after Prime Minister Peter Magyar unveiled his budget plan for next year.

The National Bank of Hungary will leave the benchmark rate at 5.5% on Tuesday, according to all 22 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The decision will be announced at 2 p.m. in Budapest, followed by a statement and briefing an hour later.

Governor Mihaly Varga said last month that policymakers had shifted to a “cautious and data-driven” approach, with the government’s fiscal plans and global market conditions among the key factors shaping the outlook.

Magyar announced a 2027 budget deficit target of 4.9% of gross domestic product on Monday, alongside plans to cut taxes for millions of workers, boost social spending and raise levies on the wealthy and large companies. He also vowed to slash government waste and spend less on interest.

The government’s fiscal plans may now be crucial for determining when rate cuts can resume after three consecutive quarter-point reductions over the summer. A credible path toward reducing the budget deficit and meeting euro-entry criteria could lower Hungary’s risk premium, support the forint and give the central bank more room to ease.

Finance Minister Andras Karman is expected to announce further details on the government mid-term macroeconomic path on Tuesday.

Inflation accelerated to 1.6% in September from 1.3% a month earlier, though less than economists had forecast and still below the central bank’s 2%-4% tolerance band. A stronger forint has helped contain import costs, though elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks continue to cloud the outlook.

The central bank last month lowered its inflation target to 2.5% from 2028, bringing it closer to the European Central Bank’s 2% objective as the country’s government pursues eventual euro adoption. Policymakers see inflation averaging 2.5% in 2028, compared with 3.1% next year.