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匈牙利财长期望削减赤字为2032年加入欧元区铺路Hungary finance minister hopes deficit cuts pave way for 2032 euro entry

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匈牙利财政部长提名人安道尔·卡尔曼出席议会确认听证会,地点为匈牙利布达佩斯,时间为2026年5月12日。路透社/贝尔纳黛特·萨博/资料照片Hungary's nominee for Finance Minister Andras Karman attends a parliamentary confirmation hearing, in Budapest, Hungary, May 12, 2026. REUTERS/Bernadett Szabo/File Photo

匈牙利财政部长表示,政府希望以削减支出为导向、前置实施的预算调整,将为可持续地削减赤字铺平道路,并使匈牙利走上采用欧元的轨道,最早可能在2032年加入欧元区。

Hungary's government hopes a front-loaded budget adjustment geared towards spending cuts will pave the way for a sustainable reduction in the deficit and put the country on course to adopt the euro, possibly in 2032, the finance minister said.

总理彼得·马扎尔的首份预算被视为对其承诺的关键考验——即满足2030年前加入欧元区的条件。该预算的目标是2027年赤字占国内生产总值的4.9%,远低于今年预计的7.5%。

Prime Minister Peter Magyar's first budget, seen as a key test of a pledge to meet the conditions of euro entry by 2030, targets a deficit of 4.9% of gross domestic product in 2027, well below this year's expected 7.5% level. Investors have taken the larger-than-expected reduction as a positive first step.

投资者将这一超出预期的削减幅度视为积极的第一步。然而,一些经济学家警告称,全球债券和能源市场的波动可能会拖累经济增长和削减赤字的努力。

However, some economists have warned that volatility in global bond and energy markets could hamper economic growth and deficit cut efforts. "We are not aiming to merely maximise deficit reductions in the short term," Finance Minister Andras Karman told Reuters.

“我们的目标并非仅仅在短期内最大化赤字削减幅度,”财政部长安德拉什·卡尔曼对路透社表示。

"We are taking sustainable deficit reduction measures that bring us closer to a deficit below 3% of output in 2030, and, as such, to the adoption of the euro rather than simply wrestling down the 2027 deficit," he said in an interview late on Tuesday.

“我们正在采取可持续的赤字削减措施,使我们在2030年将赤字降至产出3%以下,从而为采用欧元创造条件,而不是仅仅把2027年的赤字压下去,”他在周二晚些时候的一次采访中说。

The measures include moves, which could be politically costly, such as capping an income tax exemption for mothers, or halting the phasing-in of an extra month's worth of pensions, policies the government inherited from former Prime Minister Viktor Orban which it deems unsustainable.

这些措施包括一些可能在政治上代价高昂的举措,例如限制母亲的所得税豁免,或停止逐步落实额外一个月的养老金——这些政策是政府从前总理维克托·欧尔班那里继承来的,政府认为其不可持续。不过,政府表示,养老金福利的调整仍将导致老年人支出增加。

Changes to pension benefits will nonetheless result in higher spending on the elderly, the government says. "The sooner the euro can be introduced, the better for Hungary," Karman said, marking a stark policy shift from Orban, who strongly opposed the euro.

“欧元越早引入,对匈牙利越有利,”卡尔曼说,这标志着与强烈反对欧元的欧尔班相比,政策发生了明显转变。“我认为这主要将取决于赤字的削减。”通过前置实施调整,马扎尔内阁希望避免在2030年下届选举临近时不得不削减支出。

"I think this will mainly be determined by the reduction in the deficit." By front-loading the adjustment, Magyar's cabinet hopes to avoid having to make spending cuts later as the next election in 2030 draws nearer. Magyar's first budget has also laid bare the challenges of reversing flagship Orban-era policies, such as steep sectoral levies, or a costly energy support measure for households.

马扎尔的首份预算案也暴露了扭转奥尔班时代旗舰政策的挑战,例如高额行业特别税,以及一项代价高昂的家庭能源补贴措施。

The cost of the measure capping retail energy prices, which the EU has called on Hungary to eliminate, will rise by 232 billion forints ($716 million) next year -- exceeding the 200 billion forints Magyar aims to raise from a new wealth tax.

欧盟曾呼吁匈牙利取消的限制零售能源价格措施,其成本明年将增加2320亿福林(约7.16亿美元)——超过了马扎尔计划通过新财富税筹集的2000亿福林。

Karman said Hungary curbing its deficit below 3% of output in 2030 would enable euro adoption in 2032, in line with market expectations, although Magyar's government has yet to set a target date.

卡尔曼表示,若匈牙利能在2030年将赤字控制在国内生产总值的3%以下,将有望在2032年采用欧元,这符合市场预期,尽管马扎尔政府尚未设定目标日期。

The government plans to form a working group with the central bank next year to map out the tasks required in the run-up to Hungary entering Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM-2), the waiting room of the euro, and draw up what Karman called a "realistic" timetable.

政府计划明年与央行组建工作组,梳理匈牙利加入汇率机制二(ERM-2,即欧元“待候室”)前所需任务,并制定卡尔曼所谓的“现实”时间表。他说:“欧元区的机构体系比10年或15年前复杂得多。”

"The euro zone is a lot more complicated set of institutions than 10 or 15 years ago," he said. While both Magyar and central bank Deputy Governor Zoltan Kurali said Hungary should not hesitate to join ERM-2, Karman said it should not be rushed.

尽管马扎尔和央行副行长库拉利·佐尔特均表示匈牙利不应犹豫加入ERM-2,但卡尔曼认为不应操之过急。

"The point is not to enter ERM-2 as fast as possible but to adopt the euro as soon as possible and spend the least amount of time needed in ERM-2," Karman said.

卡尔曼说:“关键不在于尽快进入ERM-2,而在于尽快采用欧元,并将在ERM-2中停留的时间压缩到最短。”

Earlier this month Kurali warned that risks including fiscal slippage and exchange-rate turbulence during ERM-2 membership could push euro accession beyond 2033.

本月早些时候,库拉利警告称,包括财政滑坡和ERM-2成员期间汇率动荡在内的风险,可能将加入欧元区的时间推迟到2033年之后。

"It is very hard to determine the appropriate timing of entry from the aspect of the exchange rate," Karman said.

卡尔曼说:“从汇率角度来看,很难确定合适的入场时机。过早进入,或过早锚定汇率中间价,未必是理想选择。”

"Entering too soon, or fixing the mid-point of the exchange rate too soon would not necessarily be ideal."

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