马来西亚央行行长表示，该行在更改上个月的政策指引后，拥有更大的空间来调整利率，并已准备好在中东冲突导致能源价格居高不下、通胀压力加剧时采取行动。
Malaysia’s central bank has greater room to adjust interest rates after changing its policy guidance last month and stands ready to act if inflation pressures intensify as the Middle East conflict keeps energy prices elevated, its governor said.
马来西亚国家银行行长阿都拉计（Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour）周四在接受彭博电视台记者阿维尔·洪（Avril Hong）采访时表示：“我们在观察价格上涨方面保持高度警惕。”他表示，如果价格压力上升，“我们确实有空间做出相应的行动”。
“We are very vigilant in terms of looking at the price increases,” Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Avril Hong on Thursday. “We do have space for us to act accordingly,” if price pressures rise, he said.
马来西亚国家银行在9月份的上次会议上将基准利率维持在2.75%，同时放弃了此前将政策立场描述为“适当”的说法。阿都拉计表示，这一改变赋予了央行在必要时做出反应的更大空间。
BNM kept its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% at its last meeting in September, while dropping its previous description of the policy stance as “appropriate,” a change Rasheed said gives the central bank greater room to respond if needed.
投资者将这一变化解读为打开了可能加息的大门。根据彭博社汇编的数据，在互换市场上，交易员周四预计马来西亚国家银行在未来六个月内加息的概率约为76%。
Investors interpreted the change as opening the door to a potential rate increase. In the swaps market, traders were pricing in on Thursday about a 76% probability of a rate hike by BNM within the next six months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
阿都拉计在曼谷国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议的场边表示：“这就是市场所说的话。”他表示，政策决定将继续取决于数据，货币政策委员会将在每次会议上评估最新信息。他补充说，当前的利率与通胀前景和可持续经济增长保持一致。
“That’s what the market is saying,” Rasheed said on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Policy decisions will remain data-dependent, he said, with the monetary policy committee assessing the latest information at each meeting. The current rate remains consistent with the outlook for inflation and sustainable economic growth, he added.
尽管中东战争推高了全球油价，但在政府补贴的帮助下，马来西亚的通胀率保持温和，这些补贴使该国的燃料价格保持在世界最低水平之列。
Despite a surge in global oil prices fueled by the Middle East war, inflation in Malaysia has remained moderate, helped in part by government subsidies that keep fuel prices among the lowest in the world.
马来西亚作为净能源出口国的地位，得到了其石油和天然气储备的支持，这也帮助该国经济免受了泰国和菲律宾等依赖能源的邻国所面临的高昂进口成本的冲击。
Malaysia’s position as a net energy exporter, supported by its oil and natural gas reserves, has also helped shield the economy from higher import costs confronting energy-dependent neighbors such as Thailand and the Philippines.
政府预计，继8月消费者价格同比上涨1.9%之后，今年通胀率平均将在1.5%至2.5%之间。拉希德表示，通胀将保持在预测范围内，但中东冲突持续和能源价格高企带来了风险。
The government expects inflation to average 1.5%-2.5% this year, after consumer prices rose 1.9% in August from a year earlier. Rasheed said inflation will hold within the forecast range, but there are risks from a prolonged Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices.
政府表示，随着能源、食品和其他投入成本上升逐渐传导至价格，预计通胀将在2027年初回升，随后在当年晚些时候缓和。该机构预测2027年通胀率为1.8%至2.8%。
Inflation is expected to pick up in early 2027 as higher energy, food and other input costs feed through to prices, before easing later in the year, according to the government. It forecasts inflation of 1.8%-2.8% in 2027.
强劲的内需和半导体出口的繁荣帮助马来西亚缓冲了美国对伊朗战争所造成的冲击，这进一步巩固了外界的预期，即该国今年仍将是东南亚增长最快的经济体之一。
Strong domestic demand and a boom in semiconductor exports have helped cushion Malaysia from disruptions caused by the US war against Iran, reinforcing expectations that it will remain among Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies this year.
鉴于坚韧的内需和激增的出口有助于抵消充满挑战的全球环境，政府上周将2026年经济增长预测从4%至5%上调至4.8%至5.3%。在持续的内需和投资支撑下，政府预计明年经济将增长4.2%至5.2%。
The government last week raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.8%-5.3% from 4%-5%, as resilient domestic demand and surging exports help offset a challenging global environment. It expects the economy to expand 4.2%-5.2% next year, supported by sustained domestic demand and investment.
拉希德表示，由于马来西亚多元化的增长引擎将维持经济运转，今年的经济扩张幅度将在5%左右。他承认人工智能热潮放缓的风险，但表示该国的电气和电子产品需求将保持强劲。
Economic expansion will come in at around 5% this year as Malaysia’s diversified sources of growth will sustain the economy, Rasheed said. He acknowledged risks of a slowing artificial intelligence boom but said demand for the nation’s electrical and electronics products would remain strong.
他说：“在与企业以及生产这些产品的跨国公司的接触中，你可以看到订单量已从大约六、五个月前的约六个月，增长到现在的12至18个月。因此，这表明对这些产品的需求依然强劲。”尽管马来西亚作为一个小型开放经济体，将受到中东长期冲突的影响，但其多元化的增长来源和广泛的贸易伙伴可以帮助缓冲冲击。
“In our engagement with the businesses, with the MNCs that produce these products, you see the order book has grown from about six months, five months ago, to now between 12 to 18 months” he said. “So that shows that there’s strong demand for these products.”While Malaysia, as a small and open economy, would be affected by a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, its diverse sources of growth and broad range of trading partners could help cushion the impact.
尽管印尼盾和菲律宾比索创下历史新低，但林吉特今年依然保持稳定。在2025年以10%的涨幅成为亚洲表现最佳的货币之后，该马来西亚货币兑美元汇率小幅上涨了约0.6%。
The ringgit has remained steady this year even as the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso hit record lows. The Malaysian currency has edged up about 0.6% against the dollar after emerging as the top performer in Asia in 2025, with a gain of 10%.
拉希德表示，该货币保持了“韧性”，市场呈现“非常健康的双向流动”。他说，马来西亚国家银行继续鼓励企业、出口商和投资者汇回并兑换其外币收入。
The currency has remained “resilient,” with a “very healthy two-way flow” in the market, Rasheed said. BNM continues to encourage business, exporters and investors to repatriate and convert their foreign-currency income, he said.
马来西亚债券近期的交易波动性加大。在9月和10月期间，10年期基准债券最高收益率与最低收益率之间的差距在23至27个基点之间。相比之下，2026年前八个月该差距的平均值约为10个基点。
Malaysia’s bonds have recently traded in a more volatile manner. The gap between the highest and lowest yield on the 10-year benchmark in September and October ranged between 23-27 basis points. In comparison, the average of this gap in the first eight months of 2026 was around 10 basis points.
拉希德表示，马来西亚债券的前景将在很大程度上取决于全球形势的发展，包括中东冲突的持续时间、美国的通胀和财政风险。他说，尽管马来西亚收益率已根据不断变化的环境进行了调整，但这些变动是有序的，这仍然是中央银行的主要关注点。
The outlook for Malaysian bonds will depend largely on global developments, including the duration of the Middle East conflict, inflation and fiscal risks in the US, Rasheed said. While Malaysian yields have adjusted to the changing environment, the moves have been orderly, which remains the central bank’s main focus, he said.
行长表示，尽管大选即将来临，但马来西亚韧性的增长、强劲的基本面和政策对投资者依然具有吸引力。全国大选原定于2028年2月之前举行，但据说总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣正在考虑在明年下半年提前举行大选。
The governor said Malaysia’s resilient growth, strong fundamentals and policies were attractive to investors, even as a general election looms. Nationwide polls aren’t due by February 2028 but Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is said to be considering snap elections in the second half of next year.
拉希德表示：“只要政策具有一致性、政策具有连续性，基本面强劲，收入政策支持增长且对投资者友好，这就是他们所寻找的。”
“As long as policy consistency is there, policy continuity is there, the fundamental is strong, income policy supports growth and friendly to the investors, that’s what they’re looking for,” Rasheed said.