
巴基斯坦周一上调基准利率,决策者将遏制因中东冲突而加剧的通胀置于支持放缓经济之上。
By Bilal Hussain (News) Pakistan raised its benchmark interest rate on Monday as policymakers prioritized curbing inflation stoked by the Middle East conflict over supporting a slowing economy.
巴基斯坦国家银行将目标利率上调50个基点至12%。此举在预期之中,彭博社调查的18位经济学家中有13位预测加息50至100个基点,5位预测维持不变。
The State Bank of Pakistan raised the target rate by 50 basis points to 12%. The move was broadly expected, with 13 of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting an increase of between 50 and 100 basis points, while five predicted no change.
行长贾米尔·艾哈迈德在卡拉奇举行的决策后新闻发布会上表示:“我们仔细审视了通胀前景。”自上次会议以来,前景显著恶化,特别是由于美伊冲突,油价升至每桶100美元以上,小麦价格也在上涨。他称,这些压力需要时间消散,将推迟通胀回落至央行目标区间。
“The inflation outlook was carefully reviewed,” Governor Jameel Ahmad said at a press briefing in Karachi following the decision. The outlook had deteriorated significantly since the last meeting, particularly because of the US-Iran conflict, with oil prices above $100 a barrel and wheat prices also rising. Those pressures would take time to dissipate, delaying inflation’s return to the central bank’s target, he said.
这是巴基斯坦自4月以来首次加息。鉴于该南亚国家严重依赖进口能源,仍极为脆弱。消费者物价涨幅已连续七个月高于央行5%至7%的目标区间。
The move marks Pakistan’s first rate increase since April. The South Asian nation remains particularly vulnerable given its heavy reliance on imported energy. Consumer-price growth has remained above the central bank’s 5%-7% target range for the past seven months.

艾哈迈德称,央行担心二轮效应,因为较高的能源和食品成本有蔓延至全经济价格的风险。
Ahmad said the central bank was concerned about second-round effects, as higher energy and food costs risk spreading to prices more broadly across the economy.
油价上涨也拖累了经济增长。截至6月的财年最后一个季度,巴基斯坦经济增速低于预期,显示复苏正在失去动力。
Higher oil prices have also weighed on economic growth. Pakistan’s economy grew less than expected in the final quarter of the fiscal year through June, signaling the recovery was losing momentum.
不过,近几个月更广泛的经济前景有所改善,促使穆迪评级和标普全球评级上调巴基斯坦主权信用评级。
Still, the broader economic outlook has improved in recent months, prompting Moody’s Ratings and S&P Global Ratings to upgrade Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating.