马尼拉：本周在马尼拉会晤的东南亚能源部长们正面临中东战争长期化的可能，这场战争暴露了该地区对进口能源的脆弱性。
MANILA: Southeast Asian energy ministers meeting in Manila this week face the prospect of a prolonged Middle East war that has exposed the region's vulnerabilities to imported energy.
随着美国-以色列对伊朗的战争持续，东盟加快实施其拟议的能源安全计划、降低中东基础设施和航运路线遭袭所引发的价格冲击影响，变得愈发紧迫。
As the US-Israeli war against Iran drags on, there is increased urgency for ASEAN to implement its proposed energy security plans and reduce its exposure to price shocks caused by attacks on infrastructure and shipping routes in the Middle East.
在全球基准油价约为每桶100美元之际，东盟超过一半的炼油厂原油均从中东进口。此次冲突也加剧了人们对更广泛能源安全风险的担忧，因为中国炼油厂已暂停10月份的石油产品出口。
ASEAN imports more than half of the crude for its refineries from the Middle East at a time when global benchmark prices are around US$100 a barrel The conflict has also sharpened concerns about broader energy security risks as Chinese refiners have suspended oil product exports for October.
在此背景下，预计在马尼拉会晤的能源部长们将审查今年早些时候紧急会谈后推出的地区燃料安全措施，包括根据《东盟石油安全框架协定》落实协调一致的应急响应的努力。长期举措，如东盟电网和可再生能源部署，也在议程之列。
Against that backdrop, energy ministers meeting in Manila are expected to review regional fuel-security measures launched after emergency talks earlier this year, including efforts to put into effect coordinated emergency responses under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security. Long-term initiatives, including the ASEAN Power Grid and renewable-energy deployment, are also on the agenda.
菲律宾能源部副部长费利克斯·富恩特贝拉10月1日对路透社表示：“这场危机让我们更加关注韧性。”他指出，能源安全已从技术问题转变为东盟部长和领导人的优先事项。
“What the crisis brought was a sharper focus on resiliency,” Philippine Energy Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella told Reuters on Oct 1, saying energy security had moved from a technical issue to a priority for ASEAN ministers and leaders.
收入下降：油价上涨正在增加该地区家庭的生活成本，并侵蚀运输从业者的收入。
LOWER EARNINGS The higher prices are raising the costs for the region's households and eating into the earnings of transport workers.
“我们现在几乎没什么钱能带回家。”马尼拉一辆吉普尼车的司机安东尼奥·班丁说。他上周参加了抗议油价上涨的示威活动。他的日常燃料费用已翻倍多，达到约2400比索（38美元）。
“We hardly take anything home anymore,” said Antonio Bandin, a Manila jeepney driver who joined a protest last week over rising fuel prices. His working fuel bill has more than doubled to about 2,400 pesos (US$38) per day.
2024年1月16日，吉普尼车司机和运营商在马尼拉举行抗议，反对吉普尼现代化计划。
Jeepney drivers and operators march during a protest against the jeepney modernisation program in Manila on Jan 16, 2024.
东盟能源中心在一份政策文件中警告称，中东供应的严重中断可能使相当于东盟最终石油消费量近28%的石油量面临风险，这凸显了建立更强有力的区域石油安全安排的必要性。
The ASEAN Centre for Energy warned in a policy paper that a severe disruption to Middle East supplies could place oil volumes equivalent to nearly 28 per cent of ASEAN's final oil consumption at risk, underscoring the need for stronger regional petroleum-security arrangements.
但东盟及东亚经济研究所高级能源经济学家阿洛伊修斯·约科·普尔万托周五在战略与国际研究中心主办的网络研讨会上警告称，该地区储存能力和库存不足仍是实施APSA的障碍。
But the region's insufficient storage capacity and inventories remain obstacles to implementing APSA, Alloysius Joko Purwanto, senior energy economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, warned on Friday during a webinar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
能源部长莎伦·加林表示，仍处于国家能源紧急状态的菲律宾正在探索区域燃料储备安排，并可能承办未来的储存项目。但分析人士警告称，此类措施不太可能影响当前的危机。
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has said the Philippines, which remains under a national energy emergency, is exploring regional fuel-stockpiling arrangements and could host future storage projects. But analysts cautioned that such measures are unlikely to affect the present crisis.
“这更多是关于为下一次危机做准备。储备是缓冲，不是战略，”伊斯尤索夫·伊萨研究院高级研究员克里斯托弗·伦在同一网络研讨会上表示，指的是区域储备倡议。
“This is more about preparing for the next crisis. A reserve is a buffer. It is not a strategy,” Christopher Len, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said in the same webinar, referring to regional stockpiling initiatives.
部长们还预计将讨论减少长期对进口燃料依赖的方法。可再生能源、电动汽车和能源效率预计将成为重点议题。
Ministers are also expected to discuss ways to reduce long-term dependence on imported fuels. Renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency are expected to feature prominently.
国际能源署估计，如果不进行结构性变革，东南亚的能源进口账单可能从2024年的800多亿美元增至2035年的约2450亿美元。
The International Energy Agency estimates Southeast Asia's energy import bill could rise from more than US$80 billion in 2024 to about US$245 billion by 2035 without structural change.
国际能源署表示，更广泛的电气化（包括电动汽车和生物燃料）将有助于遏制石油需求并减少对波动性燃料进口的敞口，而东盟电力网络下将整合区域电网的跨境互联到2040年将需要约270亿美元的投资。
The IEA said wider electrification, including electric vehicles and biofuels, would help curb oil demand and reduce exposure to volatile fuel imports, while cross-border links under the ASEAN Power Grid that would integrate the region's electrical network will require about US$27 billion in investment by 2040.
“我们实际上应该利用这一冲击作为教训来减少敞口，而不仅仅是缓冲它，”伦说。
“We should actually use this shock as a lesson to reduce exposure, not only to cushion it,” Len said.