巴黎消息 - 经历了一年气候灾难重创的各国将于11月齐聚COP31，但谈判预计不会在削减引发危机的化石燃料方面取得重大进展。
PARIS - Nations reeling from a year of climate devastation gather for COP31 in November but negotiations are not expected to deliver major progress in cutting the fossil fuels driving the crisis.
此次会议召开之际，欧洲遭遇致命热浪和火灾，尼泊尔发生灾难性洪水，全球气温屡破纪录，这将考验联合国支持的谈判能否跟上现实步伐。
The conference follows deadly heatwaves and fires in Europe, catastrophic floods in Nepal and record temperatures around the world, testing whether the United Nations-backed talks can keep pace with reality.
随着领导人在土耳其会晤，一个异常强劲的厄尔尼诺模式将接近峰值强度，威胁加剧全球天气混乱，并将全球高温推向前所未有的高度。
As leaders meet in Turkey, an exceptionally powerful El Nino pattern will be approaching peak strength, threatening to amplify weather chaos worldwide and drive global heat to unprecedented highs.
能源安全担忧也将挥之不去，中东战争没有结束迹象，导致油气价格飙升，重创化石燃料进口国。
Concerns over energy security will also loom large, with no end in sight to the Middle East war that has sent oil and gas prices soaring and hit fossil fuel-importing nations hard.
随着达成新的化石燃料协议希望渺茫，土耳其正争取支持一项自愿的“电气化”承诺，称这能削减温室气体排放并减少对能源进口的依赖。
With a new agreement on fossil fuels unlikely, Turkey is rallying support for a voluntary “electrification” pledge it says could cut heat-trapping emissions and reduce reliance on energy imports.
世界资源研究所的大卫·瓦斯科表示：“在许多方面，今年气候峰会的决定性背景将是高温和霍尔木兹”，他指的是伊朗战争前输送全球五分之一碳氢化合物的关键海峡。
“In many ways, the defining contexts for this year’s climate summit will be heat and Hormuz,” said David Waskow from the World Resources Institute, referencing the vital strait that carried one-fifth of the world’s hydrocarbons before the Iran war.
不寻常的是，在经历了一场激烈的主办权争夺战后，双方同意共同承担COP31职责，土耳其必须与主要化石燃料出口国澳大利亚一起应对这些复杂局面。
Unusually, Turkey must navigate these complexities with Australia, a major fossil fuel exporter, after both countries agreed to share COP31 duties following a bruising hosting battle.
澳大利亚气候变化部长克里斯·鲍文将于11月9日在安塔利亚主导谈判，他表示，2026年的极端事件“表明气候变化不是未来的挑战”。他说：“这是当下的现实……不作为的代价正在上升。”
Australia’s Climate Minister Chris Bowen, who is leading the negotiations in Antalya starting Nov 9, said the extreme events in 2026 “show climate change is not a future challenge”. “It is a present reality... and the costs of inaction are rising,” he said.
周一，在气候脆弱的太平洋地区，一场“预COP”会议拉开帷幕，图瓦卢举行领导人闭门会议，斐济举行政府会议。僵局与近年的COP不同——在那里近200个国家就淘汰煤炭或远离化石燃料达成了里程碑式的协议——COP31的谈判议程缺乏大票项议题。
A “pre-COP” meeting began Monday in the climate-vulnerable Pacific with a leaders’ retreat in Tuvalu and government meetings in Fiji. Stalemate Unlike recent COPs – where nearly 200 nations forged landmark pacts on phasing down coal or moving away from fossil fuels – the negotiation agenda at COP31 is light on big-ticket items.
桌上有100多项议题，但其中许多涉及技术性事宜，比如批准用于追踪气候适应进展的指标。"安塔利亚峰会将有很多'展开袖 sleeve'的工作。各政府需要在谈判中取得具体进展，尽管今年可能不会有引人注目的成果," Waskow告诉法新社。
There are more than 100 items on the table but many deal with technical matters, like approving indicators to track progress on climate adaptation. “Much of the Antalya summit will be a ‘roll up the sleeves’ effort. Governments need to make concrete headway in negotiations, though there may not be dramatic outcomes this year,” Waskow told AFP.
各国并不预期将在COP31上采纳新的具有约束力的化石燃料减排承诺——这是气候变化的主要驱动因素。
Nations are not expected to adopt new binding commitments to reduce the burning of fossil fuels – the leading cause of climate change.
各国在2023年同意远离煤炭、石油和天然气，但此后就该过渡的具体目标或时间表进行谈判的努力毫无进展。
Countries agreed in 2023 to move away from coal, oil and gas but since then efforts to negotiate concrete targets or timelines for that transition have gone nowhere.
在2025年的峰会上，石油和天然气生产国阻止了就该问题达成一致意见，导致最终协议中并未提及化石燃料。"目前大家都清楚，多边层面目前不会有实质性的进展," IDDRI智库的马尔塔·托雷斯-冈法乌斯告诉法新社。与此同时，2025年的化石燃料排放量创下历史新高。
At the summit in 2025, fossil fuels were not mentioned by name in the final agreement after oil and gas-producing nations prevented consensus on the issue. “Everyone agrees there will be no real gain at the multilateral level at the moment,” Marta Torres-Gunfaus from the IDDRI think tank told AFP. Fossil fuel emissions, meanwhile, hit record highs in 2025.
9月份，联合国承认，标志性的1.5℃气候目标将在未来几年内无法达到。对COP僵局感到沮丧的各国正寻求在其他地方取得进展。
In September, the UN conceded that the milestone 1.5 deg C climate target will be missed in a matter of years. Nations frustrated at the COP gridlock have sought progress elsewhere.
近60个国家在2026年参加了一场非联合国主持的化石燃料淘汰会议。
Nearly 60 countries attended a fossil fuel phaseout conference without UN involvement in 2026.
法国、荷兰和德国已经发布了"路线图"，其中明确规定了退出煤炭、石油和天然气的最后期限。
France, the Netherlands and Germany have published “roadmaps” with explicit deadlines for quitting coal, oil and gas.
联合国气候事务首席西蒙·斯蒂尔在为这些谈判辩护的同时，也承认了它们的局限性。"没有一次COP能够解决这个全球性危机，但每次都会迈出有意义的步伐,"他说。土耳其表示，要求所有国家以相同的速度行动并不现实。
UN Climate chief Simon Stiell has defended the negotiations while acknowledging their limitations. “No single COP can fix this global crisis, but each takes meaningful steps forward,” he said. Pressure Turkey says it is not realistic to expect all countries to move at the same pace.
土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安表示：“任何未能将我们的气候目标与社会经济现实协调起来的提案，都注定会失败。”
“Any proposal that fails to reconcile our climate objectives with social and economic realities will be doomed to fail,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
土耳其正在谈判期间制定一份“行动议程”，鼓励各国在从人工智能到废物管理等问题上支持非约束性承诺。
Turkey is curating an “action agenda” alongside the negotiations that encourages countries to support non-binding pledges on issues from artificial intelligence to waste management.
其核心目标获得了广泛支持：将全球电力在能源需求中的占比从目前的约20%提高到2035年的35%。这一电气化目标并未说明额外的电力应如何生产。
There is broad support for its centrepiece goal: raising the share of global energy demand met by electricity from around 20% today to 35% by 2035. The electrification target does not state how that extra power should be produced.
目前三分之一的电力来自煤炭，因此有人担心该目标可能为扩大化石燃料的使用提供掩护。
One-third of electricity is generated by coal, and there are concerns the target could provide cover for expanded fossil fuel use.
印度政府前谈判代表阿贾伊·马图尔表示，尼泊尔的洪水还将给西方国家带来“巨大压力”，迫使其增加对气候灾害恢复的财政支持。
The Nepal floods would also put “a huge amount of pressure” on western countries to increase financial support for climate disaster recovery, said Ajay Mathur, a former Indian government negotiator.
尼泊尔总理巴伦德拉·沙阿说：“我们并非这场危机的制造者，却要为它付出代价。”
“We did not create this crisis, yet we are paying for it,” Nepal’s Prime Minister Balendra Shah said.