作者：Alice Gledhill。Man Group 的一项研究显示，高通胀本身对美国国债并非坏事——真正造成最大损害的是物价增长速度的快速上升。
High inflation alone isn’t bad for US Treasuries — instead, it’s a rapid increase in the pace of price growth that does the most damage, according to a study by Man Group.
周二发布的一份报告显示，当通胀率处于2%至4%之间（如当前情况）时，10年期美国国债历史上平均年化名义回报率比通胀率高出4%。基于实际回报的分析也呈现出类似情况。但如果通胀开始快速加速超过4%，债券表现就会严重受损。
When inflation has been between 2%-4%, as it is currently, 10-year US Treasuries have historically delivered an average annualized nominal return of 4% above inflation, a note published Tuesday showed. An analysis based on real returns paints a similar picture. But bond performance suffers badly if inflation starts to accelerate rapidly above 4%.
研究显示，在通胀率在三个月内上升超过50个基点的情况下，10年期美国国债的实际年化亏损为11.7%。
In a scenario where it quickens by more than 50 basis points over three months, 10-year Treasuries delivered a real annualized loss of 11.7%, the study showed.
包括系统性总回报策略主管 Peter Weidner 在内的作者写道：“当前的主流说法是通胀将‘更长时间维持高位’，这对债券持有者来说是坏消息。我们对此并不确定。”
“The current overarching narrative is that inflation is going to stay ‘higher for longer’ and that this is bad news for bond holders. We’re not so sure,” authors including Peter Weidner, head of total return strategies, systematic, wrote.
国债市场的艰难时期已将收益率推至数十年来的最高水平，因为人工智能支出热潮预示着强劲经济增长和持续价格压力的时代。
A torrid period for Treasuries has pushed yields to some of their highest levels in decades as an AI spending boom points to an era of robust economic growth and persistent price pressures.
这使得许多投资者不愿入场购买债券，但 Man Group 的分析表明，这些证券在长期投资组合中仍应占有一席之地。作者写道：“我们认为你不应就此放弃债券。
That’s left many investors reluctant to step in and buy bonds, though Man Group’s analysis suggests the securities still deserve a place in a long-term portfolio. “We don’t believe you should write off bonds just yet,” the authors wrote.
历史上，当股市下跌时，债券表现良好；在‘更长时间维持高位’的环境中，它们远非注定失败，仍能带来正的实际回报。”
“They have historically done well when equities fell, and far from being doomed in a ‘higher for longer’ world, they can still deliver positive real returns.”