作者：徐春子 魁北克独立党赢得了魁北克选举，但未能获得多数政府席位，这一结果正在提振投资者对该省债券的信心。
The separatist Parti Québécois won Quebec’s election but fell short of a majority government, a result that’s boosting investor confidence in the province’s bonds.
根据贝宁证券的数据，魁北克30年期债券的利差已收窄至约7.5个基点，相比选举前的约11个基点。利差的收窄表明投资者现在在持有该省债务时所要求的风险溢价较小。
Quebec 30-year bonds have tightened to about 7.5 basis points above the Ontario benchmark, compared with around 11 basis points prior to the election, according to data from Beacon Securities. The tighter spread indicates investors are now demanding a smaller risk premium to hold the debt.
魁北克独立党在星期一选举中赢得了59个席位，距离多数席位还差5个席位，因为选票在五个政党之间分散。
The PQ won 59 seats in Monday’s election, five seats short of a majority as votes were split among five parties.
“债券持有人对魁北克选民将独立党牵着长绳子的决定感到宽松，”加拿大皇家银行资本市场经济学主管德里克·霍尔特说。“一个脆弱的少数政府将难以制定举行深受反感的独立公投的条件。”与魁北克独立党政府相关的风险主要来自于该党领袖保罗·圣皮埃尔·普拉蒙多的承诺将举行独立公投。民意调查显示，大多数魁北克人不想分离出去，但即使是略微的魁北克分离可能性也足以震动债券投资者。与加拿大这样世界上信用等级最高的主权借款国分离，将带来巨大的经济和财政动荡。
“Bond holders are relieved that Quebec voters kept the PQ on a long leash and that it will need to work with other parties,” said Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Bank of Nova Scotia. “A fragile minority will struggle to set the conditions to hold a deeply unpopular referendum on sovereignty.”The risk with a PQ government largely comes from party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s pledge to hold an independence referendum. Polls show most Quebecers don’t want to break away, but even a slight possibility of Quebec secession can be enough to rattle bond investors. A split with Canada, one of the world’s most creditworthy sovereign borrowers, would bring significant economic and fiscal upheaval.
普拉蒙多表示，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普离任之前，他领导的政府不会举行主权公投。魁北克独立党的少数席位意味着新任总督和他的内阁将不得不与至少一个其他政党合作才能通过法律和预算。
St-Pierre Plamondon has said government led by him wouldn’t hold a sovereignty vote until after US President Donald Trump leaves office. The PQ’s minority status means the new premier and his cabinet will have to work with at least one other party to pass laws and budgets.