
上涨,加之霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输逐步恢复导致亚洲需求减弱,西非原油的交易价格出现了十多年来的最大折价幅度。
African crude traded at the biggest discount in more than a decade as freight rates soared and demand from Asia weakened with a recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
据标普全球能源旗下的普氏定价平台数据显示,原定于下个月装船的安哥拉Hungo原油,周二的交易价格较迪拜原油基准价每桶折价19.60美元。这是自2011年以来,在彭博社整理的普氏定价数据中所有西非原油所出现的最大折价幅度。
A shipment of Angolan Hungo due for loading next month traded at a $19.60 per barrel discount to the Dated Brent benchmark Tuesday, according to S&P Global Energy’s Platts pricing window. That’s the biggest markdown for any West African crude cargo in the Platts data compiled by Bloomberg since 2011.
能源咨询公司Energy Aspects的原油分析师亚什·巴贾杰指出,主要运往亚洲的波斯湾原油供应量回升,正在削弱市场对西非原油的需求。此外,波斯湾原油装船量的激增也导致西方地区的可用船只数量减少,进一步推高了运费水平。
The resurgence in Persian Gulf oil shipments, mainly destined for Asia, is hitting demand for West African crude. The jump in Gulf loadings has also left fewer vessels available in the West, compounding the increase in freight rates, said Yash Bajaj, a crude analyst at Energy Aspects.
“亚洲需求疲软正是安哥拉原油出现折价的主要原因,”巴贾杰说道。他补充称,自伊朗战争爆发以来,波斯湾地区的原油装船量达到历史高位,“这导致亚洲市场对西非及整个大西洋盆地原油的需求进一步减弱。”
“Softer Asian demand is the key reason why Angolan differentials are discounting,” said Bajaj. The highest Gulf loadings since the start of the Iran war have “led to a softer Asian pull on WAF and more generally Atlantic Basin barrels,” he added.
由于运费较战前水平上涨了四倍,出口商被迫在出口环节降低报价,否则买家将难以承担运输成本。
Sellers are being forced to discount their prices at the point of export because freight rates have jumped fourfold from pre-war levels, deterring buyers incurring the full cost of bringing in the cargoes.
周二,从西非运往中国的超大型油轮日均收益升至759,787美元,这一数值创下了波罗的海交易所自2020年初以来的最高纪录。这一情况促使炼油企业转而寻求更靠近本国的原油供应。
Daily earnings for so-called very large crude carriers from West Africa to China rose to $759,787 on Tuesday, the highest in Baltic Exchange data starting from early 2020. That’s pushing refiners to seek crude closer to home.
咨询机构FGE NexantECA的原油分析主管尼尔·克罗斯比表示:“作为炼油商,谁也不愿意以天价采购原油,结果却在运输途中其价值大幅缩水。”
“You don’t want to be a refiner, pick up a cargo at exorbitant rates, and have its value fall through the floor on the water,” said Neil Crosby, head of crude oil analysis at researcher FGE NexantECA.
另一批原定于11月装船的刚果共和国产Djeno原油,其报价较同一基准价每桶折价23.10美元,但始终未能找到买家。
Another November-loading cargo of Republic of the Congo’s Djeno crude was offered at an even bigger discount of $23.10 a barrel to the same benchmark, but failed to secure a buyer.
10月货船的过剩供应加剧了西非市场的困境,该市场正试图为11月的原油寻找买家。本周早些时候从该地区交易商处收集的数据显示,本月原定装船的13批安哥拉和尼日利亚原油仍有剩余。
An overhang of October barrels has added to the problems for a West African market seeking to place November’s crude, with 13 shipments of Angolan and Nigerian crude for loading this month still available in estimates compiled earlier this week from traders specializing in the region’s deals.

Energy Aspects表示,沙特阿拉伯东西输油管道向红海港口延布(Yanbu)的流量恢复,以及七国集团(G7)国家释放紧急石油和柴油储备,也将抑制采购需求。除非中东地区冲突再起并导致海湾地区出口量下降,否则这种疲软态势预计将持续。
A recovery in flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and the release of emergency oil and diesel stocks by the Group of Seven nations will also deter buying, according to Energy Aspects. The weakness is set to persist unless renewed hostilities in the Middle East depress Gulf shipments.
Bajaj表示:“鉴于我们预计大西洋地区的货运费率仍将保持高位,我们认为这种疲软可能会持续。同时,我们也在密切关注中东地区的装船和出口情况,因为任何相关数据的下降都可能终结当前的疲软趋势。”
“We believe this weakness could last, given our expectations of Atlantic basin freight rates remaining elevated,” Bajaj said. “We are also monitoring Middle Eastern loadings and exports closely as any decline in this could arrest the weakness.”