阿根廷经济正走向技术性衰退。8月复苏乏力，未能弥补7月更严重的下滑，这让总统哈维尔·米莱在明年选举前面临更多挑战。
Argentina’s economy is on track to enter a technical recession after a lukewarm recovery in August failed to make up for steeper losses in July, adding to President Javier Milei’s challenges ahead of next year’s election.
8月建筑业活动环比增长0.4%，勉强抵消了7月4.4%的跌幅。根据周三公布的政府数据，制造业在7月下滑5.1%后，8月环比增长1.9%。这两个行业雇佣了阿根廷最大的正规就业群体，因此被视为实体经济的关键指标。
Construction activity grew 0.4% in August on a monthly basis, barely enough to cover the 4.4% fall in July. Manufacturing posted a 1.9% monthly bump after a 5.1% fall in July, according to government figures published Wednesday. The two sectors employ the largest share of formal workers in Argentina, making them key indicators for the real economy.
根据央行周二发布的市场调查结果，阿根廷预计已在第三季度陷入技术性衰退。分析师估计，7月至9月的国内生产总值（GDP）较此前三个月下降了1%，这将是连续第二个季度下滑。第三季度GDP的官方数据将于12月公布。
Argentina is expected to have fallen into a technical recession in the third quarter, according to the central bank’s market survey published Tuesday. Analysts estimated that gross domestic product fell 1% from July through September compared to the previous three months, which would be the second straight quarterly decline. Official data for third quarter GDP will be published in December.
央行调查中的分析师还下调了2026年的年度增长预测，从去年底的3.5%降至1.5%。
Analysts in the central bank survey also revised down their 2026 annual growth projection to 1.5% from 3.5% at the end of last year.
“制造业和建筑业都出现了一定程度的复苏，但远不足以支撑避免技术性衰退的希望，”彭博经济社的经济学家希梅娜·祖尼加表示。“鉴于高频数据的波动加剧，我并不完全采信第二、第三季度的疲软表现，但即便排除这些波动，增长过程也比几个月前看起来要疲软得多。” 米莱上个月在接受彭博社采访时淡化了对阿根廷经济停滞的担忧，他强调年度增长持续稳定，因此对自己在明年总统选举中连任的前景“非常淡定”。
“There was some recovery in both manufacturing and construction, but not nearly compelling enough to support the hope of avoiding technical recession,” said Jimena Zúñiga, an economist at Bloomberg Economics. “I don’t take the second and third quarters’ weakness at face value, given the heightened volatility in high-frequency data, but looking through that volatility does suggest the growth process is a lot softer than it seemed a few months ago.”Milei downplayed concerns last month in an interview with Bloomberg about Argentina’s stalling economy, touting consistent annual growth that’s left him “very calm” about his chances to win another term in next year’s presidential race.
投资者对明年的竞选活动日益担忧，因为米莱未能实现他在2023年底当选时所承诺的经济增长，尽管他已成功将通胀从危机水平拉低。
Investors are growing increasingly worried about the campaign next year as Milei fails to deliver the growth he promised when he was elected in late 2023, even as he’s successfully brought down inflation from crisis territory.
根据AtlasIntel为彭博新闻社进行的一项民意调查，米莱的支持率在今年8月降至38%，接近其总统任期内的最低水平。调查显示，约70%的阿根廷人认为劳动力市场状况不佳。米莱则称阿根廷的民意调查并不可靠。
Milei’s approval rating sat at 38% in August, near the lowest levels of his presidency, according to an AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News. Some 70% of Argentines described the labor market as bad, the survey showed. Milei wrote off polls as unreliable in Argentina.