经济部长路易斯·卡普托预计第四季度将出现强劲反弹，并驳回了衰退的前景，尽管增长正在放缓。
Economy Minister Luis Caputo expects a strong rebound in the fourth quarter and dismissed the prospect of a recession, even as growth slows.
卡普托表示，复苏将由建筑业和抵押贷款推动，同时随着通胀继续缓解，实际工资也将增长。他在曼谷国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会期间接受采访时如是说。
Caputo sees the recovery being driven by construction and mortgages, as well as gains in real wages as inflation continues to ease, he said in an interview on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
“我认为我们将看到建筑业的显著复苏，”他说。“你会在道路上感受到这一点。你也会在抵押贷款放贷中感受到这一点。”他补充道：“我们不认为会出现衰退。”
“I think we will see a significant recovery in construction,” he said. “You’re going to feel it in the roads. You’re also going to feel it in mortgage lending.”“We don’t see a recession,” he added.
他的乐观情绪是在经济第二季度收缩0.6%，随后在7月再次出现收缩之后产生的，这使得分析师们正在争论阿根廷是否面临今年陷入技术性衰退的风险，并加剧了投资者对亲市场总统哈维尔·米莱将在2027年面临艰难连任竞选的担忧。
His optimism comes after the economy contracted 0.6% in the second quarter and again in July, leaving analysts debating whether Argentina risks slipping into a technical recession this year and stoking investor concern that market-friendly President Javier Milei will face a tough reelection battle in 2027.
卡普托还预计，随着利率下降和实际工资改善，贷款也将恢复。信贷增长近期动能减弱，银行正转向政府证券，因为经济放缓和逾期贷款上升正在压制贷款。
Caputo also expects lending to recover as interest rates decline and real wages improve. Credit growth has recently lost momentum, with banks shifting back toward government securities as a slowing economy and elevated delinquencies weigh on lending.
他表示，借贷成本已经开始下降。银行表示，逾期贷款“不再是问题”，并开始下降，他说，尽管这种改善尚未在官方数据中体现出来。
Borrowing costs have already begun to fall, he said. Banks have said that delinquencies are “no longer a problem” and have started to decline, he said, though the improvement has yet to show up in official data.
卡普托驳回了政府必须在复苏增长和继续压制通胀之间做出选择的观点，而后者仍然是总统的经济优先事项。
Caputo rejected the idea that the government faces a choice between reviving growth and continuing to squeeze inflation, which remains the president’s economic priority.
米莱政府一直依赖货币来遏制通胀，但经济学家警告称，人民币的实际升值正在对信贷和增长造成压力，引发人们对米莱能够在不进一步损害经济活动的情况下优先考虑通胀下降多长时间的质疑。
Milei’s government has leaned on the currency to curb inflation, but economists have warned that the peso’s appreciation in real terms is weighing on credit and growth, raising questions over how long Milei can prioritize disinflation without doing further damage to activity.
“我们不像其他经济学家那样看待这种权衡，”卡普托说。“我们认为它们根本不相容。”卡普托表示，通胀下降将降低投资融资成本，而闲置的生产能力将为增长提供空间。
“We don’t see that trade-off in the same way as other economists do,” Caputo said. “We don’t think they’re incompatible at all.”Caputo said disinflation would lower the cost of financing investment, while spare productive capacity would provide room for growth.
卡普托承认能源冲击对增长造成了压力，称如果没有这一因素，阿根廷可能将以接近4%的速度增长。
Caputo acknowledged that the energy shock had weighed on growth, saying that without it, Argentina would probably be expanding at close to 4%.
“我们仍然专注于降低通胀，因为我们知道这对阿根廷人最有利，因为自第一天起，这一直是总统的承诺，而且我们知道这能提高工资、减少贫困，”他说。“这将继续是首要任务。”周五早些时候，国际货币基金组织西半球部门主管奈杰尔·查尔克表示，他预计2027年将出现“增长的非常积极的加速”。
“We remain focused on bringing down inflation because we know that’s what’s best for Argentines, because it has been the president’s commitment since day one, and because we know it improves wages and reduces poverty,” he said. “That will continue to be the priority.”Earlier Friday, IMF Western Hemisphere Director Nigel Chalk said he expects a “very positive” acceleration of growth heading into 2027.
卡普托并未排除明年重返国际债务市场的可能性，但表示政府只有在借贷成本与目前可获得的更便宜融资选项具有竞争力时才会这么做。
Caputo isn’t ruling out a return to international debt markets next year, but said the government would only do so if borrowing costs become competitive with the cheaper financing options currently available.
“只要我们有机会以更低利率再融资，那就是我们的义务，”他说。“现在，如果明年条件合适——因为国家风险显著下降或全球利率下降，我们能够以目前同样的利率再融资，我对此没有问题。”卡普托周四在X平台的一篇帖子中表示，阿根廷正在与世界银行就约100亿美元的融资进行谈判，用于私营部门项目。他说，这些资金将用于支持铁路项目、萨尔塔省的塔卡塔卡铜矿以及巴伊亚布兰卡的尿素厂。
“As long as we have the opportunity to refinance at lower rates, that’s our obligation,” he said. “Now, if next year the conditions are right because country risk falls significantly or global interest rates come down, and we can refinance at the same rates we’re getting now, I would have no problem with that.”Argentina is in talks with the World Bank for about $10 billion in financing for private-sector projects, Caputo said in a post on X Thursday. He said the funding would support rail projects, the Taca Taca copper mine in Salta province and a urea plant in Bahía Blanca.
卡普托还表示，阿根廷正在争取至少20亿美元的多边融资，用于2027年前的项目，但未具体说明资金来源。
Caputo also said Argentina is in talks to secure multilateral funding worth at least $2 billion heading into 2027, without specifying the source.
在另一次采访中，世界银行拉美及加勒比地区副总裁苏萨娜·科尔代罗·格拉表示，他们预计将在米莱进入2027年之际向阿根廷提供更多贷款。
In a separate interview, Susana Cordeiro Guerra, vice president for the Latin America and the Caribbean region at the World Bank, said they expect to lend more to Argentina as Milei heads into 2027.
“我们当然在进行讨论，并且将在一年中的不同时间点以战略方式支持政府的流动性需求，”她说。该国明年将面临选举以及超过250亿美元的债务到期。
“We are definitely in discussions and will support the government in their liquidity needs at different points in time in a strategic way throughout the year,” she said. The country faces elections and more than $25 billion in debt maturities next year.
根据AtlasIntel为彭博新闻进行的一项民调，米莱的支持率在8月为38%，接近他任期内的最低水平。调查显示，约70%的阿根廷人认为劳动力市场状况不佳。米莱称阿根廷的民调不可靠。
Milei’s approval rating sat at 38% in August, near the lowest levels of his presidency, according to an AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News. Some 70% of Argentines described the labor market as bad, the survey showed. Milei wrote off polls as unreliable in Argentina.
自米莱上任前夕以来，阿根廷已流失近25万个私营部门工资岗位，失业率已升至近8%。
Argentina has lost nearly 250,000 private-sector payroll jobs since just before Milei took office, and unemployment has ticked up to nearly 8%.