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他在一个特朗普曾以21个百分点优势获胜的选区参选。民主党人看到了机会He's Running In a District Trump Won By 21 Points. Democrats See an Opening

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贾斯汀·皮尔森的胜算依然渺茫。五个月前,这位民主党州议员宣布他将继续在经过重新划分选区的第五选区参选国会众议员时,许多田纳西州和华盛顿的人认为这更多是一种象征性的举动,而非真正具有获胜的可能。皮尔森原本计划在一个以黑人为主的选区(位于孟菲斯地区)参选,挑战现任民主党议员史蒂文·科恩(已连任十届)。

然而五月份,由共和党控制的州立法机构重新划定了田纳西州的国会选区边界,将孟菲斯的部分地区与14个农村县合并在一起。如今,皮尔森需要在这样一个选区与对手竞争——在2024年的选举中,特朗普在该选区以超过21个百分点的优势获胜。

The odds are still stacked against Justin Pearson.

“在他们篡改选区边界后,我们就知道这场比赛会变得更加艰难,”皮尔森在电话采访中表示,“但这丝毫没有让我们气馁。”本周,民主党的国会竞选机构对皮尔森对抗共和党州参议员布伦特·泰勒的竞选活动表示支持,并将田纳西州第9选区列入了他们梦寐以求的“从共和党控制转为民主党控制”的候选区名单。根据民主党国会竞选委员会(DCCC)的新闻稿,列入该名单的竞选活动将获得“组织支持、资金援助、人员资源、培训以及战略指导”。

When the Democratic state representative announced that he would continue to run for Congress in a gerrymandered district five months ago, it was seen by many in Tennessee and Washington as more symbolic than viable. Pearson had originally planned to run in a majority-Black district in the Memphis area, challenging Rep. Steven Cohen, a ten-term Democratic incumbent. Then in May, the Republican-controlled state legislature redrew Tennessee's congressional map, splitting off parts of Memphis and combining it with 14 rural counties. Pearson is now running to represent a district that Trump carried by more than 21 points in 2024.

这一支持的出现,正值全国范围内关键选举结果逐渐向民主党倾斜的大趋势之下。九月底,无党派机构库克政治报告(Cook Political Report)指出,民主党有望在众议院选举中赢得5到15个席位。尽管库克仍将田纳西州第9选区视为“共和党的稳赢选区”,但士气高涨的民主党人认为,这股“蓝色浪潮”可能会进一步扩大民主党在选举中的优势。

“We knew this was going to be a harder race after they rigged the maps,” Pearson says in a phone interview. “ It has not deterred us at all.”This week, Democrats’ House campaign arm gave Pearson’s bid against Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor a vote of confidence, adding Tennessee’s 9th district to its coveted “Red to Blue” list. Campaigns on the list receive “organizational and funding support,” as well as staff resources, training, and strategic guidance, according to a DCCC press release.

目前关于这场选举的公开民调数据非常有限。最近一项由民主党支持的组织委托进行的民调显示,皮尔森在选民中的支持率落后于泰勒4个百分点。

The late support comes against the backdrop of a broad national trend of key races shifting in Democrats’ favor. In late September, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said House Democrats are on track to pick up five to 15 seats. Though Cook still rates Tennessee’s 9th District as a “Solid Republican” seat, emboldened Democrats see a potential blue wave significantly expanding the races in play.

皮尔逊认为,他的竞选活动被纳入“从红到蓝”(Red to Blue)计划,表明党内领导层已不仅仅将其视为对共和党不公正划分选区行为的抗议。他说,他已经在新选区的全部15个县开展了竞选活动,每天举行三到四场竞选活动。

There has been little publicly available polling on the race. A recent poll sampling 400 voters and commissioned by a Democratically-aligned group found Pearson trailing Taylor by four percentage points.

“我们一直在进行倾听之旅、胜利之路集会、见面会、筹款活动,当然,我们也在孟菲斯和谢尔比县的理发店、美容院和教堂走访,因为我们不会把任何事情留给运气,”皮尔逊说。他表示,田纳西州民众对特朗普总统和伊朗战争日益增长的抵触情绪也对他有所帮助,并指出一些以前投票给特朗普的农村选民现在正在为他拉票。

Pearson sees the addition of his scrappy campaign to the "Red to Blue" program shows the party’s leaders see it as more than just a protest against GOP gerrymandering.

“过去有很多投票给保守派的人,他们是农民,对关税以及他们(特朗普政府)在牛肉进口方面所做的事情感到非常沮丧,”皮尔逊说。“有些人每天不得不花费1000美元在机械和柴油燃料上,他们知道这与伊朗战争有直接联系。”缩小差距,皮尔逊在2023年因在众议院议事厅领导枪支改革抗议活动而被驱逐出田纳西州议会,从而登上了全国头条新闻。他的对手泰勒试图将皮尔逊贴上“民主社会主义者”的标签,称其对该选区来说过于激进。

He says he’s campaigned in all 15 counties in the new district, holding three to four campaign events daily.

“他走到哪里都会制造混乱,这就是为什么田纳西州第9选区的选民会选择能力而非混乱,”泰勒在给《时代》周刊的一份声明中说道。

“We've been having listening tours, road-to-victory rallies, meet and greets, fundraisers, and of course we're visiting barber shops and beauty shops and churches here in Memphis and Shelby County too, because we're not going to leave any of this to chance,” Pearson says, A growing backlash in Tennessee to President Trump and the Iran War is also helping, he says, pointing to rural voters who previously voted for Trump that are now canvassing for him. “There are a lot of people who voted conservatively in the past who are farmers, who are very frustrated by the tariffs and what they [the Trump administration] have done with beef imports,” Pearson says. “There are people who are having to spend $1,000 a day on their machineries, diesel fuel, and they know that's a direct correlation to the Iran War.”Closing the gap Pearson made national headlines in 2023 for getting expelled from the Tennessee legislature for leading a gun reform protest from the House floor. His opponent, Taylor, has sought to brand Pearson as a “democratic socialist” who is too liberal for the district.

皮尔逊则反驳称,泰勒无法被信任去代表该选区选民的利益。他强调了泰勒接受埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX公司捐款一事。尽管当地居民对环境影响表示担忧,但其子公司SpaceXAI仍寻求在孟菲斯地区建立一个大型数据中心。

“He causes chaos everywhere he goes, and that’s why the voters in Tennessee’s District 9 will vote for competence over chaos,” Taylor said in a statement to TIME.

“我的对手……他所做的一切是为了给自己赚更多的钱,而不是为了保护和服务我们社区和我们州的人民,”皮尔逊说。

Pearson has argued Taylor can’t be trusted to represent the interests of the district’s voters. He highlighted donations Taylor accepted from Elon Musk’s SpaceX. A subsidiary company, SpaceXAI, is seeking to build a massive data center in the Memphis area despite local residents' concerns over environmental impact.

泰勒曾经营过殡仪馆,他的竞选资金主要来自自己。他告诉《时代》杂志,自己四年前就卖掉了企业,并在54岁退休,之后才参选州参议员。他还指责皮尔森从未真正拥有过工作,称其“只是一个受雇的抗议者”。

“My opponent…is about making more money for himself rather than protecting and serving the people in our community and in our state,” Pearson says.

利用选民的积极性:当最高法院于4月作出裁决,削弱了《投票权法》的一项关键条款时,多个由共和党控制的州迅速重新划分了国会选区。田纳西州是第一个采取行动的州,其立法机构很快批准了一张新地图,取消了该州唯一一个黑人占多数的选区。民权组织试图说服法院阻止这张新地图,但至今未能成功。

Taylor, a former owner of funeral homes who is mostly self-funding his campaign, told TIME he sold his business four years ago and retired at age 54 before running for state Senate. He also accused Pearson of never having a real job and being “a paid protester.”Capitalizing on voters’ energy When the Supreme Court issued a ruling in April that undermined a major provision of the Voting Rights Act, it prompted multiple Republican-controlled states to quickly redraw its congressional lines. Tennessee was the first to act, with the legislature quickly approving a new map erasing Tennessee's only majority-Black district. Efforts by civil rights groups to convince the courts to block the new map have so far failed.

然而,选区调整似乎在前党初选期间震撼了该州许多民主党选民。《华盛顿邮报》报道称,在包括孟菲斯在内的谢尔比县,五分之一的活跃选民参加了三个民主党国会众议员初选投票,投票率创下十年来的最高水平。

Yet the map switch appears to have jolted many of the state’s Democratic voters during the primaries. The Washington Post reported that a fifth of activeed voters in Shelby County, which includes Memphis, cast a ballot in three Democratic primaries for U.S. House seats, the highest level of voter turnout in a decade.

皮尔森表示,田纳西州的黑人选民正在表明,他们拒绝被共和党削弱其政治影响力的企图所吓退。

Pearson says Black voters in Tennessee are showing they refuse to be deterred by Republicans’ efforts to dilute their political power.

他说:“这只是我们将要面对的又一个挑战,而我们将共同面对它。我们的投票率将超过过去几十年的任何时期,我们的参与度也将超过过去几十年的任何时期,因为我们的投票权正面临考验。”

“This is just another challenge that we are going to face, and we're going to face it together,” he says. “And we're going to show up more than we have in decades. We're going to participate more than we have in decades because our voting rights are on the ballot.”