这场正在颠覆南美和亚洲天气的厄尔尼诺已加强至有记录以来最强，日本国家气象预报机构表示，这可能导致广泛的经济扰动，并在气候模式消退后仍持续很长时间。
The El Niño that’s upending weather across South America and Asia has intensified to the strongest on record, according to Japan’s national forecaster, threatening widespread economic disruptions that could linger long after the climate pattern dissipates.
日本气象厅监测的热带太平洋海面温度截至9月已比正常值高出4摄氏度，为自1949年以来的最高记录，气象厅在周五发布的公告中称。此前的纪录是在1997年12月，当时温度比正常值高出3.7摄氏度。
Sea surface temperatures in a patch of the tropical Pacific Ocean monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency were 4C above normal as of September, the highest in records going back to 1949, the forecaster said in a bulletin published Friday. The previous record was set in December 1997, when temperatures were 3.7C above normal, the bureau said.
厄尔尼诺已在全球范围内扰乱天气模式。该气候事件导致十多年以来最弱的印度季风，加剧了印尼的野火，向邻近的新加坡和马来西亚释放有毒烟雾，并威胁巴西的糖和咖啡产量。
El Niño has already disrupted weather patterns worldwide. The climate event has led to the weakest Indian monsoon in more than a decade, exacerbated wildfires in Indonesia that have spewed toxic smoke over neighboring Singapore and Malaysia, and threatened sugar and coffee output in Brazil.
日本气象厅的展望发布于世界气象组织最新季节性预测之后，后者称厄尔尼诺将成为有史以来最强烈的。世界气象组织的预测基于尼诺3.4区，该区与日本跟踪的尼诺3区重叠但位于其西侧。
The JMA’s outlook comes a day after the World Meteorological Organization said in its latest seasonal forecast that El Niño is set to be the most intense ever. The WMO’s projection is based on the Niño 3.4 region, which overlaps with but lies west of the Niño 3 region tracked by Japan.
日本气象局预测厄尔尼诺在北半球冬季期间有100%可能持续，这与美国气候预测中心的展望一致，后者认为这一天气动荡现象必将在1月至3月期间持续。
The Japanese bureau predicts a 100% chance that El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, in line with the US Climate Prediction Center’s outlook that the weather-roiling phenomenon is certain to last through the January-March period.