据Baudelaire Mieu报道，日益增强的厄尔尼诺现象正给本就脆弱的可可供应形势带来更大压力。科特迪瓦作为全球最大的可可生产国，其国家气象局发出预警称，2027年初该国可能面临降雨不足的情况。
A strengthening El Niño is threatening an already fragile outlook for cocoa supplies, with top grower Ivory Coast’s state weather agency warning of a rainfall deficit through early 2027.
科特迪瓦气象局Sodexam在周四发布的报告中指出，干旱与高温还将威胁到咖啡、橡胶及油棕等其他农作物的生长。
The dry weather and heat stress also threaten other crops, including coffee, rubber and oil palm, Sodexam warned in a report published Thursday.
西非地区出产了全球超过一半的可可豆，此类天气风险或将导致产量下降，进而推高全球可可价格。
West Africa produces more than half the world’s beans, and weather risks could curb output and keep global prices elevated.
StoneX集团预测，2026至2027产季，全球头号可可生产国科特迪瓦的产量或将减少11%，降至180万吨；排名第二的可可生产国加纳的产量预计也将下降约13%，降至65万吨。
StoneX Group Inc. expects output in Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer to fall 11% to 1.8 million tons in the 2026-27 season. Neighboring Ghana, the No. 2 grower, expects its harvest to decline about 13% to 650,000 tons.
虽然整体趋势为降雨偏少，但报告同时指出部分地区仍可能出现强降水，从而引发城市内涝风险。
While the overall picture is one of a rainfall deficit, there is also the possibility of intense precipitation in some areas, leading to risks of urban flooding, the report warned.
厄尔尼诺现象会对全球气候产生显著影响：某些地区出现干旱，另一些地区则可能出现强降雨或洪水。
El Niño can disrupt weather around the globe, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall or flooding to others.
今年以来，纽约可可期货价格波动剧烈，交易商们正密切关注西非地区的收成前景。自3月份触及2,846美元/吨的低点后，价格整体呈上行趋势，目前维持在5,600美元/吨左右。
Cocoa futures in New York have been volatile this year as traders weigh the outlook for West Africa’s harvest. Prices have trended higher since touching a low of $2,846 a ton in March and are currently trading around $5,600 a ton.