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人工智能与其他经济领域The rising risk of the AI-versus-everything-else economy

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数据:美国劳工统计局、FactSet;图表:Axios/马特·菲利普斯;注:数据中心建设包括建筑成本,如劳动力、材料、承包商利润、建筑与工程工作及杂项管理费用、利息和税收。不包括服务器、机架Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips; Note: Data center construction includes construction costs, such as labor, materials, profits of contractors, architectural and engineering work and miscellaneous overhead, interest and taxes. Does not include servers, racks

数据来源:美国劳工统计局、FactSet;图表制作:Axios/Matt Phillips。

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips; Note: Data center construction includes

注:数据中心建设成本包含以下内容:劳动力、建筑材料、承包商利润、建筑设计与工程费用、各类管理费用、利息及税费。该成本不包含服务器、机架、芯片或内存等硬件。

construction costs, such as labor, materials, profits of contractors, architectural and engineering work and miscellaneous overhead, interest and taxes. Does not include servers, racks, chips or memory.

如今,经济领域似乎明显分化成了两部分:人工智能产业与其他所有行业。

More and more, it seems as if there's the AI economy — and everything else. Why it matters:

为何此现象至关重要:人工智能领域的飞速发展与大多数美国人赖以生存的普通经济领域的缓慢增长之间差距日益扩大,这对金融市场具有深远影响。

The growing chasm between the breakneck growth of the AI world and the slower pace of the economy where most Americans work and live has huge implications, especially for the markets. Zoom in:

详细分析:上图展示的是截至8月份的美国建设支出数据,清晰反映了上述分化现象。这一趋势在金融市场同样显著。

The most recent numbers on U.S. construction spending through August — shown above — paint the picture remarkably clearly. The same divide is an important theme in the markets as well.

  • 根据Apollo与彭博社的数据,截至8月底,全年投资级企业债券发行总量中,与人工智能相关的债券占比超过半数。

• In corporate bonds, AI-related offerings accounted for more than half of net investment grade issuance for the year through the end of August, according to data from Apollo and Bloomberg.

数据来源:Apollo、彭博社;图表制作:Axios/Matt Phillips此外,市场对人工智能相关领域的高度期待也大幅推高了英伟达、大型云服务商及其他相关科技企业的股价。

Data: Apollo, Bloomberg; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips And of course, excitement over all things related to AI has supercharged the market values of Nvidia, the hyperscalers and other AI-related tech stocks. Stunning stat:

一个惊人的数据:目前,标普500指数中科技板块的市值占比已接近40%,这一数值甚至超过了互联网泡沫时期的峰值。

The weighting of the S&P 500 technology sector in terms of market capitalization is now roughly 40%. That's higher than during the peak of the dot-com bubble.

  • 不过这一数据其实仍低估了人工智能的实际影响力。

• But that actually underplays the impact of AI.

  • 若将标普500指数中未计入科技板块的Meta与亚马逊等大型云服务商纳入统计,受人工智能驱动的企业在指数中的市值占比将接近50%。

• If you throw in the hyperscalers Meta and Amazon, which S&P doesn't include in the tech sector, the share of the AI-pilled part of the blue-chip index climbs closer to 50%.

数据来源:FactSet、Axios;图表制作:Axios/Matt Phillips

Data: FactSet, Axios; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips The bottom line:

总结:人工智能与其他经济领域的增长差距表明,美国经济与金融市场正日益依赖人工智能产业——同时也需承担随之而来的各类风险。

The growth gap between AI and everything else means the U.S. economy and the markets are increasingly yoked to AI — and all the risks that come with it.