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美国需要更多资本America Needs More Capital

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我两年前在这份报纸上写道,美国仍然是世界经济的羡慕对象,站在繁荣的边缘。我们在人工智能方面领先于任何人。这项技术,以及它所需的基础设施建设,似乎有望带来巨大增长。这种增长是美国经济致命弱点的答案——其联邦债务如今已达到创纪录的40万亿美元。通过每年超过3%的经济增长,各国最终能够兑现对公民的承诺,而无需仅仅通过更多借贷来支付。人工智能使这种增长比过去几十年更具可实现性。

I wrote in this newspaper two years ago that America was still the economic envy of the world and standing at the edge of a boom. We were further ahead in AI than anyone. The technology, along with the infrastructure build-out it requires, seemed likely to produce tremendous growth. That growth was the answer to America’s economic Achilles’ heel, its federal debt, which has now reached a record $40 trillion. Expanding the economy by more than 3% a year is ultimately how countries meet the promises they have made to their citizens without simply borrowing more to pay for them. AI makes that kind of growth more achievable than it has been in decades.

这一切仍然成立。但正如美国比以往任何时候都需要更多投资,资本正变得日益稀缺。发达国家政府正在制造巨额赤字。这种借贷如今正与私营部门的巨大需求相碰撞,其中很大一部分来自科技公司。再加上电力、住房、工业产能及其他基础设施所需的万亿美元,你就会看到我在金融领域50年来见过的最大资本竞争。

All this remains true. But just as America needs to invest more than ever, capital is becoming scarcer. Governments across the developed world are running huge deficits. That borrowing is now colliding with tremendous demand from the private sector, much of it from technology companies. Add the trillions needed for power, housing, industrial capacity and other infrastructure, and you get the biggest competition for capital I have seen in 50 years in finance.

一些人看到流入人工智能的资金规模,便认为这是一场泡沫。作为受托人,我们必须区分持久投资与投机。是的,一些公司可能会失败。铁路既造就了财富,也导致了破产。互联网也是如此。想象一个只有少数几家公司每家价值10万亿美元的未来并不困难。

Some people look at the sums going into AI and see a bubble. As fiduciaries, we have to distinguish durable investments from speculation. Yes, some companies may fail. The railroads produced both fortunes and bankruptcies. So did the internet. It isn’t difficult to imagine a future with a handful of companies worth $10 trillion each.

我看到了不同的风险。当所有这种投资需求与有限的资本供应相碰撞时,借贷对每个人来说都变得更加昂贵——从购房的家庭到寻求投资的企业。口袋最深的公司显然占据优势。这些就是超大规模云服务提供商。目标应该是为他们的增长提供融资,同时不剥夺经济其他部分的资本。

I see a different risk. When all that investment demand collides with a limited supply of capital, borrowing becomes more expensive for everyone, from families buying homes to businesses looking to invest. The companies with the deepest pockets have an obvious advantage. Those are the hyperscalers. The goal should be to finance their growth without starving the rest of the economy of capital.

我们不可能仅仅通过将同一笔资金在不同资产之间转移,就为这一轮投资周期提供资金。我们的资本市场必须从新的可投资资本来源中获取资金。金融危机之后,银行的放贷能力有所下降,而资本市场填补了其中大部分缺口。私人信贷随之增长,企业、创业者和小型公司也找到了新的融资渠道。这一演变过程为经济复苏提供了资金支持,并帮助美国保持其作为创业热土的魅力。

We can’t finance this investment cycle simply by moving the same dollars from one asset to another. Our capital markets will have to tap new pools of investable capital. After the financial crisis, banks had less capacity to lend. The capital markets filled much of the gap. Private credit grew. Companies, entrepreneurs and small businesses found new sources of financing. That evolution financed the recovery and helped keep the U.S. an attractive place to build a company.

要维持这一优势,我们需要做到三点:首先,扩大这一投资周期的融资规模。目前,人工智能基础设施的融资大多属于定制性质,仅涉及相对少数公司和贷款机构。未来几年所需的投资规模太大,仅靠这种方式显然无法完成。

To keep it that way, we need to do three things: First, scale the way this investment cycle is financed. Much of AI infrastructure financing today is bespoke, involving a relatively small number of companies and lenders. The investment required over the next several years is too large to finance that way alone.

我的职业生涯始于抵押贷款交易领域,当时抵押贷款支持证券市场尚处于起步阶段。经过数十年发展,数据、标准和市场结构逐步完善,才使抵押贷款成为世界上最大的资产类别之一。但这一次,我们没有几十年的时间。我们需要将新型基础设施转化为更广泛资本池可以参与的投资标的。这正是证券化在过去所实现的功能:抵押贷款被转化为证券,贷款找到了新的市场,而原本储存在银行资产负债表中的资产,则得以大规模投资。计算基础设施或许将成为下一个领域。

I began my career as a mortgage trader when the mortgage-backed securities market was still young. It took decades to build the data, standards and market structure that allowed mortgages to become one of the world’s largest asset classes. We don’t have decades this time. We need to turn new kinds of infrastructure into investments that far more pools of capital can finance. That is what securitization has done before: Mortgages became securities, loans found new markets, and assets once held on bank balance sheets became investable at enormous scale. Computing infrastructure may be next.

其次,要认识到数据中心只是这一建设过程的一部分。在技术能够提升劳动者和企业的生产力之前,我们必须先为其所需的电力及其他基础设施提供资金并完成建设。中国大规模扩建发电能力的实践提醒我们,技术领域的领先地位并不仅仅取决于谁能打造出最出色的模型。充足且价格合理的电力,将成为与先进技术本身同等重要的竞争优势。

Second, recognize that data centers are only one part of this build-out. Before the technology can make workers and businesses more productive, we have to finance and build the power and other infrastructure it requires. China’s enormous expansion of power generation is a reminder that leadership in technology will depend on more than who builds the best models. Abundant and affordable power will be a competitive advantage on par with technology itself.

这将需要更快、更可预测的许可流程,以及对电工、焊工和技术人员进行培训的协调努力。这些是能够维持家庭生计的工作,其中大多数可以发展为职业,且不需要四年制大学学位。这些技能在今天的建设项目完成后仍将长期保持价值。

That will take faster, more predictable permitting and a concerted effort to train electricians, welders and technicians. These are family-sustaining jobs that can become careers, most of which don’t require a four-year degree. These skills will remain valuable long after today’s construction projects are finished.

人工智能的巨大潜力伴随着关于安全及其对人们影响的合理担忧。实现其益处将要求公共和私营部门负责任地管理这些风险。

AI’s enormous potential comes with legitimate concerns about safety and its effect on people. Realizing its benefits will require the public and private sectors to manage those risks responsibly.

人工智能承诺带来丰盛,但其建设正在制造稀缺。我们已经有数万亿美元的资金在追逐有限的电力、芯片、设备和熟练工人供应。增加产能是我们防止这些短缺推高价格的方式。它还决定了这项技术能够多广泛地普及,从而保持对初创企业和小企业的可负担性。

AI promises abundance while its build-out is creating scarcity. We already have trillions of dollars chasing limited supplies of power, chips, equipment and skilled workers. Building more capacity is how we keep those shortages from driving prices higher. It also determines how broadly the technology can spread, keeping it affordable for startups and small businesses.

第三,也是最重要的,美国需要更多的投资者。让更多人成为长期投资者,将使他们在国家增长中拥有更大的利益份额,同时为融资提供另一笔资本来源。在过去半个世纪的大部分时间里,资本的增长速度快于工资,使拥有金融资产的人比依赖工资的人获得更多回报。大约有40%的美国人根本不持有任何股票。这一次应该会有所不同。

Third and most important, America needs more investors. Helping more people become long-term investors would give them a greater stake in the country’s growth while adding another source of capital to finance it. For much of the past half-century, capital has grown faster than wages, rewarding people who owned financial assets more than those who relied on their paychecks. Roughly 4 in 10 Americans own no stock at all. This time should be different.

我们可能正在进入美国历史上伟大的投资周期之一。我对技术及其融资这一建设的能力持乐观态度,同时保持资本对家庭和企业的可用性。如果我们通过新的融资方式解锁更多投资,使许可流程大幅加快,并建设我们所需的基础设施,经济就能够快速增长到足以使我们的债务保持可控的程度。

We may be entering one of the great investment cycles in American history. I am bullish on the technology and on America’s ability to finance this build-out while keeping capital available to households and businesses. If we unlock more investment through new methods of financing, make permitting much faster, and build the infrastructure we need, the economy can grow quickly enough to keep our debt manageable.

这一繁荣可以产生比少数几家极其成功的公司更大的东西。成功的真正衡量标准将是有多少美国人能够从这一增长中受益。拉里·芬克是贝莱德的董事长兼首席执行官。

This boom can produce something larger than a handful of extraordinarily successful companies. The true measure of success will be how many Americans benefit from the growth. Mr. Fink is chairman and CEO of BlackRock.