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AI泡沫担忧被夸大Why the AI bubble fears are overblown

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奥黛丽·理查森/路透社Audrey Richardson/Reuters

担忧正在升级,认为AI泡沫即将因债务累积而破裂,正如我的同事Liz Hoffman昨天所详细描述的那样,其中包括一位匿名数据中心融资者的这句精彩言论:“我们不是为你的反乌托邦未来提供提款机的。”也许贷款人对资助数据中心建设已经感到厌倦,但金钱不会是导致AI列车最终脱轨的因素。一切都受到瓶颈限制。不仅仅是芯片、内存和EUV机器。还有冷却GPU的制冷单元以及制造组件所需的原材料,比如玻璃。

Fear is rising that the AI bubble is about to burst under the weight of mounting debt, as my colleague Liz Hoffman detailed yesterday, including this great quote from an unnamed data-center financier: “We’re not an ATM for your dystopian future.”Perhaps lenders have grown tired of funding the data center buildout, but money is not going to be the thing that finally causes the AI train to go off the rails. Everything is bottlenecked. It’s not just chips, memory, and EUV machines. It’s refrigeration units that cool the GPUs and the raw materials needed to make components, like glass.

如果不是因为这个供应链瓶颈,AI的收入和用户数量很可能会增长得更快。每当公司达到新的令牌效率水平时,就会诞生一种新的AI用例,消耗越来越多的算力,从而印证了杰文斯悖论。我最近喜欢的例子是:通过反编译视频游戏来制作混搭作品,这以前需要人们花费数年时间手动完成,而现在AI可以在周末内完成。这可能正是让Z世代成为AI粉丝的关键因素。

If it weren’t for this bottlenecked supply chain, it’s likely AI revenues and user numbers would be growing much faster. Every time companies reach a new level of token efficiency, some new use case for AI is born that burns through ever more compute, proving Jevons Paradox. My favorite example of late: Decompiling video games to create mashups, something that used to take people years to do manually can now be done by AI in a weekend. It may be the thing that finally turns Gen-Zers into fans of AI.

AI的总可寻址市场大约相当于地球人口的100%,且对它的需求将继续飙升。企业市场才刚刚涉足AI,而消费者市场甚至尚未开始深入。Anthropic本周告诉投资者,其毛利率达到85%。即使这个数字被大幅夸大,这也是一门赚钱的生意。换句话说,他们将能够偿还债务义务。

The total addressable market of AI is roughly 100% of the earth’s population, and demand for it will continue to soar. The enterprise market has only dipped its toes into AI, and the consumer hasn’t even begun to dive in. Anthropic told investors this week that it’s making 85% gross margins. Even if that number is a gross exaggeration, this is a cash cow business. They’ll service their debt obligations, in other words.

我同意那位抱怨自己成了AI产业提款机的贷款人的看法,但可能出于不同的理由。你为何愿意贷款只换取微薄的利息,而不去投资以获得巨额回报?超大规模云服务商和新云服务商之所以转向债务融资,是有原因的:因为债务相对便宜。

I agree with the lender who lamented being an ATM for the AI industry, but probably for a different reason. Why would you want to lend money for measly interest payments when you could invest and get a massive return? There’s a reason hyperscalers and neoclouds reached for debt: It’s relatively cheap.