在美国，财富繁荣与价格冲击交织在一起作者：霍华德·施奈德华盛顿，10月12日 - 美国正处于一场历史性且代价高昂的技术革命之中，人工智能的建设正推动着一项投资规模，有望超过之前的电信繁荣，也超过诸如铁路和公路网络建设等国家项目。
In the US, a wealth boom and a price shock collide By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON, Oct 12 - The US is in the middle of a historic and costly technological revolution, with the artificial intelligence buildout driving a level of investment set to eclipse the previous telecommunications boom, as well as national projects like the construction of rail and highway networks.
这一转型刺激了股市的巨大涨幅，提升了全国家庭的财富水平，这 arguably 有助于使消费者支出保持在正轨上。但由于投资收益主要集中在已经富裕的人群中，一些美国人获益更多，而另一些人则获益较少。
The transformation has spurred immense stock market gains that have boosted household wealth across the economy, which arguably has helped to keep consumer spending on track. But with investment gains concentrated among the already rich, some Americans are benefiting more than others.
而被称为“可负担性危机”的问题仍然可以在住房拥有成本的上升或牛肉价格的上涨中看到——这对绝大多数家庭来说是一种有意义的压力，因为这些家庭的主要收入来自工资而非投资。1% 获得更大份额美国99%的家庭有理由好奇，人工智能市场的狂热对他们意味着什么。近年来股市的快速增长，最快出现在前1%的家庭中：根据联邦储备数据，从前总统乔·拜登政府结束到2026年第二季度——也就是唐纳德·特朗普最后一个任期的中期——只有前1%的家庭获得了全国财富蛋糕中更大的一份。
And what's been dubbed a crisis of affordability can still be seen in the rising cost of home ownership or the price of ground beef -- a meaningful pinch for the great majority of households that derive most of their income from earnings rather than investments. A BIGGER SLICE FOR THE 1% Ninety-nine percent of US households have cause to wonder what the AI market frenzy means for them. The rapid stock market gains in recent years have been fastest for the top 1%: Between the end of former President Joe Biden's administration and the second quarter of 2026, midway through Donald Trump's final term, only the top 1% gained a bigger slice of the national wealth pie, according to Federal Reserve data.
数据显示，从第99百分位向下，财富份额实际上在变小。整体蛋糕在变大不过，下面的99%家庭并没有被完全排除在外。
From the 99th percentile down, the share grew smaller, the data show. A BIGGER PIE ALL AROUND The lower 99% have not been left out entirely, though.
从拜登政府结束到2026年中，家庭财富增长了16.5%，按绝对值计算增加了约26万亿美元。
Household wealth jumped 16.5% from the end of the Biden administration through mid-2026, rising about $26 trillion in absolute terms.
虽然其中不到5000亿美元流向了财富最少的一半家庭，但这仍代表了大约10%的增长。
While less than half a trillion dollars of that went to the least-wealthy half of households, that still represented about a 10% gain.
两极分化——富人所占比重上升但整体财富也在增长——是当今美国经济令人困惑的方面之一，也引发了经济学家对如果财富分配继续倾斜，国家能否实现可持续增长的疑问。
The dichotomy - a rising share to the richest but rising wealth in general - is one of the confounding aspects of the US economy today and has prompted questions among economists over whether the country can grow sustainably if the division of wealth continues to get more skewed.
支出保持坚挺但通胀侵蚀 迄今为止的答案……有点模糊。情绪仍然低落，但支出仍在激增。
SPENDING HOLDS UP BUT INFLATION TAKES A BITE So far the answer is...kind of. Sentiment remains sour, but spending surges on.
美国家庭用于购买商品和服务的支出金额持续上升，事实上以美元计的支出增长速度已超过疫情前。
The amount of money going out the door of US households to buy goods and services continues climbing, and in fact on a dollar basis is rising faster than before the pandemic.
寻找支出呈“K形”走势——上层平稳下层艰难——的经济学家得出了不同结论。富裕家庭的支出无疑强劲，但大型银行以及里士满联邦储备银行等机构的研究表明，收入和财富分配底层的支出至少保持稳定。纽约联邦储备银行对家庭信贷的研究显示，低收入群体尚未出现信贷危机的明显迹象。
Economists looking for evidence of a "K shape" to the spending -- with an upper leg coasting and a lower leg struggling -- have reached mixed conclusions. Spending among wealthier households is strong, to be sure, but research by major banks and places like the Richmond Federal Reserve indicate spending at the lower end of the income and wealth distribution is at least holding up. Studies of household credit by the New York Fed have shown little evidence of a credit crisis yet among the less well off.
然而，以通胀调整后的“实际”支出来看，其增长率与疫情前大致相同。名义支出与实际支出之间的差距扩大，显示出通胀侵蚀的部分。此现象为为何在距中期选举仅数周之际，公众情绪已转向反对特朗普及共和党国会候选人提供了线索。
Yet on an inflation-adjusted basis, what's known as "real" spending is growing at about the same rate as it was before the pandemic. A rising gap between nominal and real spending shows what's lost to inflation. And that offers a clue to why the mood seems to have turned against Trump and Republican congressional candidates just a few weeks ahead of midterm elections.
即便家庭目前似乎能够通过收入、财富或精打细算来应对生活成本的上涨，但他们必须花费更多才能仅仅维持现状，这种压力被经济学家认定为通胀对公众舆论产生强腐蚀性的主要原因之一。
Even as households seem able, so far, to chase the cost of living - whether through earnings, wealth, or careful shopping - they have to spend more to just keep pace, a grind that economists have identified as one of the main reasons inflation is so corrosive to public opinion.
通胀仍在持续并大声宣告 2024年总统竞选中，特朗普提供了衡量其成功的明确标尺，承诺不仅要抑制通胀，而且在新任期伊始价格将实际下降。
INFLATION PERSISTS AND ANNOUNCES ITSELF LOUDLY Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign offered a clear yardstick to measure his success, promising that he would not only tame inflation but that prices would actually fall from the start of his new term.
降低整体价格水平其实是一个危险的想法：在不断增长且竞争激烈的经济环境中，价格水平通常会上升，只有在经济衰退时期才会下降；即便如此，各类商品和服务的相对价格仍可能朝不同方向波动。
Lowering the overall level of prices is a perilous idea: In a growing, competitive economy, the price level typically rises, and only falls during downturns even as relative prices for individual goods and services shift around in both directions.
在过去大约20个月里，物价持续上涨，通货膨胀率也有所回升（这一趋势始于特朗普执政的初期）。由于进口关税的影响、与伊朗战争相关的能源成本上升，以及当前人工智能产业的快速发展，价格压力一直持续存在。
In the last 20 moths or so, prices have risen, and the level of inflation rebounded from Trump's first months. Price pressure have persisted as the shock of import tariffs, energy costs associated with the Iran war, and now the AI boom have coursed through the economy.
这些变化在各项统计数据中显而易见：小时工资的增长速度与消费者价格指数的上升速度大致相同；但那些备受消费者和选民关注的关键商品（如汽油和牛肉）的价格却大幅上涨。
The weight of it all can be seen in general statistics. Hourly wage growth and the Consumer Price Index have been increasing at about the same pace, but some of the marquee prices that are top of mind for shoppers and voters, like gasoline and ground beef, have soared.
对于日常消费品而言，人们已经学会了如何应对这些价格波动——比如适当减少开支、偶尔不外出就餐，或者通过制作家常菜来节省预算。然而，像住房这样的昂贵商品对人们的生活有着更为深远的影响：它们不仅关系到家庭的组成与成长方式，还影响着家庭如何积累财富，以及人们对自己生活状况的认知（是正在进步还是停滞不前）。
HOME AFFORDABILITY A SORE POINT Prices for day-to-day items are things that people learn to manage. Cut back a little bit here, skip a restaurant trip there, stretch the budget with casseroles. Big-ticket items like homes, however, have a broader influence, and can shape how families form and grow, how households build wealth over time, and how people think about whether they are getting ahead or are stuck in place.
特别是在住房方面，疫情的冲击带来了长期的影响；在特朗普执政期间，住房市场的状况并未得到改善。事实上，随着债券收益率的上升，过去一年里房屋抵押贷款利率上升了超过一个百分点，进一步加剧了住房价格已经过高、人们难以负担的现状。
On housing in particular, the pandemic shock has had a long tail, and so far things have not gotten better under Trump. In fact, with bond yields rising, home mortgage rates have jumped more than a full percentage point in the past year, intensifying what was already an unaffordable situation.