据格雷格·里奇报道，花旗集团指出，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特很可能缩减长期国债的拍卖规模，甚至可能完全取消20年期债券的发行。
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likely to reduce the auction sizes for long-dated government bonds — and could even cancel sales of 20-year debt altogether, according to Citigroup Inc.
据花旗美国利率策略主管杰森·威廉姆斯介绍，该行的基准预测是：20年期和30年期债券的每次拍卖规模都将减少30亿美元，所需资金将通过增加短期国债的发行来弥补。这一调整计划预计将在11月4日举行的财政部季度再融资公告中正式公布。
The bank’s base case is a $3 billion reduction per auction for both 20- and 30-year bonds, which would be funded by additional T-bill issuance, according to head of US rates strategy Jason Williams. That would be announced at the Treasury Department’s next quarterly refunding announcement on Nov. 4.
威廉姆斯在周五晚些时候发布的报告中建议投资者提前布局：鉴于20年期债券发行量可能减少甚至取消，该债券的表现有望优于10年期国债。此前有分析指出，美国财政部的交易商调查可能成为债券市场的一个“风险事件”。而下周五即将开展的调查，若显示市场对长期债券的需求正受到高质量大型企业债券发行的“部分挤压”，则有望成为利好债券市场的催化剂。
The Citi strategist recommended in a late Friday note that clients position for 20-year bonds to outperform 10-year notes on the prospect of a “reduction, or perhaps cancellation, of the 20-year bond.”Read: US Treasury’s Dealer Survey Seen as ‘Risk Event’ for Bond Market A first hint at such a change could come in a survey of dealers scheduled for next Friday. That questionnaire stands to offer a “bullish catalyst” for the trade, according to Williams, if the department asks major financial institutions whether demand for long-end debt is being “partly cannibalized” by high-quality hyperscaler issuance.
威廉姆斯还指出：“虽然我们认为这类优质企业债券的供应并未显著影响整体利率水平，但养老金基金对长期优质企业债券的需求可能正较以往有所上升。”
“While we do not think such IG supply has impacted the overall level of rates, we do think pension funds could be leaning into long-end IG bonds more than they typically have,” he wrote.
目前华尔街各界正就贝森特将采取何种措施以遏制处于数十年高位的美国国债收益率展开热议。本周早些时候，法国巴黎银行的分析师则对此类举措能否有效降低政府借贷成本持保留态度。
Across Wall Street, debate has been growing over what Bessent might do to help reign in US government bond yields near multi-decade highs. Earlier this week, strategists at BNP Paribas SA said they were skeptical that such a move would be effective at lowering government borrowing costs. Read: Wall Street Sees Bessent Entering ‘New World’ For Debt