祝这场“牛市”生日快乐——它刚刚迎来了它的第四个年头。本周一标志着当前牛市的四周年纪念日：自2022年10月12日创下低点以来，标准普尔500指数已经上涨了近120%——这一惊人的涨幅充分反映了华尔街对人工智能变革力量的信心。
Happy birthday to the bull market, which just turned four. Monday marks the fourth anniversary of the current bull market, with the S&P 500 having climbed nearly 120% since its closing low on Oct. 12, 2022 — an extraordinary run that reflects Wall Street's faith in the transformative power of artificial intelligence.
自2022年底ChatGPT发布以来，投资者对所有与人工智能相关的技术和应用都表现出极大的兴趣；那些直接受益于人工智能发展的公司（即所谓的“AI相关企业”）的股价更是飙升到了新的高度。
Since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, investors have hungered for all things related to the AI trade, with the stocks most tied to the build-out — the so-called "picks and shovels" — flying to whole new stratospheres because of the technology.
英伟达（Nvidia）曾是高端显卡制造商的代表企业，如今已成为一家市值约5.5万亿美元的公司，并在2023年首次突破1万亿美元的市值大关；另一家受益公司美光科技（Micron Technology）也在今年5月首次达到了1万亿美元的市值。这些企业的表现帮助股市克服了多年来（包括2026年）面临的种种挑战，继续保持强劲上涨势头。标准普尔500指数上周首次突破7800点，目前仍接近历史高点，这在很大程度上得益于科技板块在指数中的重要权重（该指数中约40%的成分股属于科技股）。
Nvidia, the poster child for the revolution that was formerly best known for the graphics cards it built for high-end video games, is now a roughly $5.5 trillion company; it passed the $1 trillion market cap for the first time in 2023. Micron Technology, another beneficiary, passed the $1 trillion market cap for the first time this May. Those moves have helped the stock market climb a wall of worry in the intervening years, including in 2026. The S&P 500 just last week topped 7,800 for the first time, and remains near records, thanks in large part to its heavy allocation toward tech. About 40% of the broader index is in tech stocks.
面对日益严重的通胀压力、债券收益率的上升以及态度更为鹰派的联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve），投资者开始质疑这场牛市还能持续多久。从技术角度来看，股市未来的走势似乎并不理想。
After such an extraordinary run, investors wonder how much longer the rally can continue, especially as they face ongoing fears around higher inflation, surging bond yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Technically speaking, the path forward appears less ideal.
根据奥本海默（Oppenheimer）公司的分析师阿里·沃尔德（Ari Wald）的分析，当前这场牛市是自1932年以来持续时间第六长的牛市。通过研究历史数据，他发现牛市达到顶峰前的平均剩余时间为13个月，这意味着2027年可能是这场牛市的高潮阶段。不过沃尔德也指出，过去牛市在第五年的平均回报率仍为21%，这意味着在达到峰值之前，投资者仍有可能获得更多收益。
According to Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, the current bull market is the sixth longest of 24 going back to 1932. In observing the data, the chart analyst wrote that the median time remaining before a cycle reached its peak was 13 months, which suggests 2027 could be the final leg of the run. To be sure, Wald added that the median fifth year return was still 21%, suggesting there are further gains to be had for investors before any peak.
当前周期还能持续多久可能取决于市场广度，而市场广度已经恶化。9月份，标普500指数成分股中有75%收于负值区域，因为更高利率的威胁促使投资者重新涌入少数几家超大型公司。
How much longer the current cycle can continue may depend on market breadth, which has deteriorated. In September, 75% of stocks in the S&P 500 closed in negative territory, as the threat of higher interest rates spurred investors back into a few mega-cap companies.
小盘股尤其受到冲击。奥本海默的沃尔德表示，他正密切关注罗素2000指数对其200日均线的测试，以判断牛市是否仍有上行空间。
Small caps, especially, have suffered. Oppenheimer's Wald said he's closely watching the Russell 2000's test of its 200-day moving average to see whether the bull market still has room to run.
“我们认为，相对疲弱仍是警示而非机遇，除非更强劲的市场条件得以重建，”沃尔德写道。
"In our view, relative weakness remains a warning, not an opportunity, until stronger market conditions can be reestablished," Wald wrote.
盈利也是一个问题。虽然第三季度财报季预计将表现强劲，但一些人担心，鉴于预期已经过高，财报可能不足以提振股价。
Earnings are also an issue. While the third-quarter reporting season is expected to be strong, some worry that they may not be strong enough to lift the stock price given how high expectations have grown.
科技股尤其成问题。德意志银行策略师帕拉格·塔特写道，他认为目前对科技的轮动已经过度，风险回报比不再看起来有利。
Tech, in particular, is an issue. Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte wrote that he thinks the rotation into tech is now overdone, with the risk-reward no longer looking favorable.
但许多投资者对股市仍持乐观态度，因为其在过去四年里的韧性反映了在人工智能布局过程中强劲的基本面盈利——尽管挑选赢家可能变得更棘手。
But many investors remain optimistic in the stock market, as its resilience over the last four years reflects strong fundamental earnings amid the AI build-out — though picking the winners may get trickier.
“要想跑赢大盘，投资者需要兼具持有快速增长且不失误的股票——这始终是我们的座右铭，”三变量研究公司创始人亚当·帕克在周日写道。他后来补充道：“我们继续认为美国股市将表现良好。”
"In order to outperform, investors need a combination of owning stocks that grow fast and don't miss — which remains our mantra," Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, wrote on Sunday. He later added: "We continue to think that the US stock market will perform well."