纽约，10月9日：美国牛市在接近四周年之际依然强劲，其驱动力来自人工智能领域的巨额支出，这些支出正推动企业盈利和经济增长。
NEW YORK, Oct 9 : The US bull market is going strong as it nears its four-year anniversary, driven by an AI spending engine that is propelling corporate profits and economic growth.
在10月12日这一重要节点之前，标普500指数正交投于历史高位附近。这一天将标志着该基准股指本轮周期中最低收盘点出现整整四年——也意味着最新一轮牛市的开启。
The S&P 500 is trading around record-high levels ahead of October 12, which will mark four years since the benchmark stock index's closing low for this cycle — signaling the start of the latest bull run.
企业盈利的迅猛增长——得益于人工智能扩张带来的支出以及稳健的经济环境——推动了市场近期的上涨，也是投资者对未来几个季度保持乐观的主要原因。
Sizzling corporate profit growth — lifted by spending on the AI expansion and a solid economic backdrop — has helped drive the latest leg of the market's rally and is a primary reason for investor optimism in coming quarters.
然而，即便指数持续攀升，风险依然存在。美联储的加息举措以及美国国债收益率的飙升，都可能成为阻碍股市动能的障碍。随着下月美国中期选举的临近，市场可能会出现波动。
But even as the index climbs, risks loom. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and spiking US Treasury yields both provide obstacles that could sap the momentum for equities. Markets could be volatile heading into next month's US midterm elections.
市场过度依赖人工智能也引发担忧：一旦该趋势出现任何疲软迹象，市场可能会做出剧烈反应。
The market's dependence on AI also presents a worry, with any hints of weakness in the trend possibly met with severe punishment.
“人工智能主题正是本轮牛市的决定性特征，”美国安联集团（Ameriprise）首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格利姆贝内（Anthony Saglimbene）表示。“从牛市持续四年这一角度来看，我认为围绕人工智能的‘轻松盈利’阶段已经过去了……随着牛市进一步深入，尤其是科技公司将面临更大压力，必须证明当前的投入最终能够转化为实际利润。”
"The AI theme is the defining feature of this bull market," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. "What you're seeing in terms of the bull market four years in is, I think, the easy money around AI has been made ... as we get further into this bull market, there is just going to be more pressure on especially technology companies to prove that the spending that they're doing today is actually going to translate into the profits."
当前牛市在历史中位水平在诸多牛市中，本轮牛市或许可被归类为“中年”阶段。卡森集团（Carson Group）首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）指出，标普500指数的本轮上涨，是第二次世界大战以来持续时间第八长的牛市。
CURRENT RUN RANKS MIDDLE-AGED AMONG BULLS As bull markets go, the current one could be classified as middle-aged. The S&P 500's latest run ranks as the eighth-longest bull market since World War Two, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.
尽管股市专家对牛市的定义存在分歧，但一个普遍接受的标准是：在指数从高点下跌至少20%之后，又上涨至少20%。当前的牛市累计上涨117%，是二战以来表现第六好的牛市。
While stock experts differ on defining a bull market, a common definition is a gain of at least 20 per cent that has followed a decline of at least 20 per cent from a peak. The current bull run has tallied a gain of 117 per cent, which is the sixth-best-performing bull market since World War Two.
“无论如何想象，四年对于一场牛市来说都算不上可怕，”全美银行（Nationwide）首席市场策略师马克·哈克特（Mark Hackett）表示。“牛市不会因年老而终结，而是会因‘疾病’而终结。”科技与人工智能是本轮牛市的核心。随着ChatGPT的推出，人工智能主导了最新的牛市，而该牛市启动大约一个月后，ChatGPT便问世了。美国企业正实现巨额利润增长，标普500指数公司的每股收益预计今年将增长超过35%，这得益于“超大规模科技公司”为建设数据中心而进行的资本支出。
"Four years is not, by any stretch of the imagination, scary with regards to a bull market," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist for Nationwide. "They don't end of old age; they end from disease." TECH, AI AT HEART OF BULL RUN AI has dominated the latest bull run, with the launch of ChatGPT coming about a month after the bull market began. US companies are posting massive profit growth, with S&P 500 earnings expected to rise more than 35 per cent this year, boosted by capital spending from "hyperscalers" to build data centers.
牛津经济研究院估计，近期美国经济增长中约有三分之一来自人工智能，其中包括直接投资支持人工智能基础设施扩张的净影响，以及股市上涨带来的财富效应刺激消费的部分贡献。
Oxford Economics estimates about one-third of recent US economic growth stems from AI, including the net impact of direct investment to support expansion of AI infrastructure as well as some contribution from the wealth effect from stock market gains lifting consumer spending.
“你正在看到人工智能这一主题正体现在经济和公司利润中，”萨格利姆贝内（Saglimbene）表示。
"You're seeing that AI theme show up in the economy and in corporate profits," Saglimbene said.
在标普500指数的11个行业中，只有科技和通信服务行业——其中包括人工智能领域的巨头Alphabet和Meta Platforms——在本轮牛市中的涨幅超过了指数本身。
Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only technology and communication services — which includes megacap AI players Alphabet and Meta Platforms — have posted stronger gains than the index itself during the bull run.
英伟达（Nvidia）的市值从2022年10月12日的2860亿美元飙升至5.8万亿美元，其人工智能芯片使其成为这一科技时代的代表企业。它已成为全球市值最大的公司。美国有13家公司的市值至少达到1万亿美元，其中除两家外，其余均属于科技行业或与人工智能有重大关联。
The market capitalization of Nvidia — whose AI chips have made the company the poster child of this technological era — has soared to $5.8 trillion from $286 billion on October 12, 2022. It has become the largest company by market value in the world. Thirteen US companies boast market values of at least $1 trillion — all but two either in the tech sector or with significant AI exposure.
科技主导下集中化风险加剧 大型科技和人工智能股票的上涨使其在主要股指中拥有更大的影响力，但也导致市场结构“头重脚轻”。根据摩根大通资产管理公司的数据，标普500指数中前10大公司的权重已从2022年10月的约28%增长至约40%。
CONCENTRATION RISK GROWS WITH TECH DOMINANCE The gains in massive tech and AI stocks give them more significant sway over major stock indexes, but also make them top-heavy. The weight of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 has grown to about 40 per cent from about 28 per cent in October 2022, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
“这既反映了企业基本面的强劲和盈利表现超出预期，但也带来了一些风险，”爱德华·琼斯高级全球投资策略师安杰洛·库尔卡法斯表示。“集中化风险在于，如果当前主导市场的主流趋势不再受青睐，投资组合可能会受到超出预期的影响。”另一个风险是美联储近期转向加息，因为这家美国中央银行正试图抑制高企的通货膨胀。更紧缩的货币政策可能会减缓经济增长，甚至可能带来严重冲击。事实上，导致2022年10月市场下跌的上一轮熊市，就与急剧的加息周期同时发生。
"It is a reflection of fundamental strength and earnings outperformance, but also it introduces some risks," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. "The risk of concentration is that if the prevailing theme goes out of favor, portfolios might feel it in an outsized way." Another risk is the Fed's recent pivot to rate hikes, as the US central bank seeks to bring down high inflation. Tighter monetary policy could slow the economy, perhaps severely. Indeed, the last bear market that led to the low in October 2022 coincided with a sharp rate-hiking cycle.
加息也是国债收益率大幅飙升的一个因素。基准的10年期美国国债收益率此前一度触及24年来的最高水平，目前则在5.2%左右徘徊。
Rate hikes also factor in to the huge jump in Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was hovering at around 5.2 per cent, after recently reaching its highest level in 24 years.
更高的收益率对股票市场构成阻力，包括可能引发债券市场在投资吸引力上的更强竞争。
Higher yields pose headwinds for equities, including potentially greater investment competition from bonds.
库尔卡法斯表示，爱德华·琼斯仍然维持对股票市场的超配立场，但这一建议已不像之前那样激进，该策略师同时指出，固定收益资产的吸引力正在增强。
Kourkafas said Edward Jones remains overweight equities but the recommendation is less aggressive than it was before, with the strategist noting the increasing attractiveness of fixed income.
“我们仍然认为牛市尚未结束……但我们认为，适当降低部分风险是合理的，”他说。
"We still think that the bull market is not about to end ... but it makes sense to us to take some of the risk off the table," he said.