
尽管围绕人工智能交易的担忧日益加剧,股市已经达到了一个积极的里程碑。
The stock market has already reached a positive milestone despite growing consternation around the artificial intelligence trade.
标普500指数年内上涨12%,即使在上周下跌2%之后也是如此。
The S & P 500 is up 12% year to date, even after last week's 2% slide.
最新的下跌是由人工智能相关股票的损失推动的,因为投资者担心人工智能的需求可能不足以证明公司为建设网络而借入的资本规模是合理的。CoreWeave成为上周下跌的典型代表,暴跌超过25%。半导体股票美光科技和超微半导体分别下跌15%和13%。但上周也有一线希望:当前牛市已经满四年。
The latest decline was driven by losses in artificial intelligence-linked names, as investors feared demand for AI may not be enough to justify the amount of capital companies are borrowing to build their networks. CoreWeave was the poster child of last week's declines, plunging more than 25%. Semiconductor stocks Micron Technology and Advanced Micro Devices dropped 15% and 13%, respectively. But there was one bright light last week: The current bull market turned four years old.
虽然其他牛市持续时间更长,但这次牛市做了一件前所未有的事情。
And while other bull runs have lasted much longer, this one has done something never seen before.
“这是自二战以来唯一一个在前四年每年都实现双位数增长的牛市,” CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示。
"This is the only bull market since WWII that posted double-digit advances in each of the first four years," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
“历史提供了鼓励,表明这次牛市仍有上升空间,因为二战以来牛市第五年的平均涨幅接近21%。在持续四年的牛市中,只有一个没有熬过第五个周年。”
"History offers encouragement that this bull has further to run, as the average gain in the fifth year of bull markets since WWII was nearly 21%. Only one of the bulls that lasted four years did not survive until its fifth anniversary."
以下是标普500指数在此次牛市前四年的表现:需要指出的是,Stovall指出,这是自二战以来估值最高的牛市,标普500指数的远期市盈率接近23。然而,这种估值可能得益于强劲的盈利增长。
Here's how the S & P 500 did in each of the first four years of this bull market: To be sure, Stovall noted that this is also the most expensive bull market going back to World War II, with the S & P 500 trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 23. However, that valuation may be justified by strong earnings growth.
FactSet数据显示,标普500指数第三季度盈利同比增长29%。”
S & P 500 third-quarter earnings are tracking for 29% year-over-year expansion, FactSet data shows.
我们认为,这个最近刚刚庆祝四岁生日的牛市仍有上升空间,”他说。
"We think this bull market, which recently celebrated its fourth birthday, has further to run," he said.