As President Trump weighed endorsing Ken Paxton over incumbent Texas Sen. John Cornyn this spring, he was told that damaging revelations were likely to surface about Paxton, according to people familiar with the conversations. Trump was dismissive and said there would be more negative material about Democratic nominee James Talarico.

Trump plowed ahead and endorsed the scandal-plagued Texas attorney general, helping him win the Republican-primary runoff in May. Months later, that decision is looking like Trump’s biggest gamble of the midterms.

Despite efforts by Paxton to paint his opponent as a far-left zealot, Talarico consistently holds a narrow lead in polls, raising a once unthinkable possibility: A Democrat could win statewide office in Texas for the first time since 1994.

As fireworks exploded over the Burj Khalifa skyscraper to welcome 2025, Paxton and his girlfriend Tracy Duhon watched from a luxury high-rise balcony full of people, according to a video of the gathering reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, details of which were contained in court filings and confirmed by people familiar with the matter.

Among those at the event with Texas’ top law-enforcement official were two Americans who had been indicted months before on federal healthcare-fraud charges but failed to return to the U.S., Anosh Ahmed and Sameer Suhail, according to the court records and people familiar with the matter. Ahmed, a healthcare executive, had donated $190,000 to Paxton, campaign finance records show, including $25,000 days after he was indicted.