自2017年首次进入白宫以来，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普兑现了以色列右翼的愿望清单，并推行了一项有助于提升以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡政治前景的外交政策。
Since first entering the White House in 2017, US President Donald Trump has delivered on a right-wing Israeli wish list and pursued a foreign policy that has helped buoy Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political fortunes.
反过来，以色列领导人将自己描绘为以色列最重要的外交关系的最佳守护者，他在应对特朗普的一些公开批评和泄露的不满时表现出韧性，尽管这些批评和不满几乎没有带来实际的政策变化。
The Israeli leader has, in turn, portrayed himself as the best steward of Israel’s most significant foreign relationship, weathering a handful of public criticisms and leaked discontents from Trump that have yielded little concrete policy change.
但尽管两人有着悠久的历史，特朗普迄今为止对10月27日的以色列大选采取了明显的淡漠态度。此次选举中，内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德党及其领导的极右翼联盟正面临来自亚沙尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特以及他试图构建的反对派联盟日益增长的威胁。
But despite the pair’s long history, Trump has so far taken a decidedly ho-hum approach to the October 27 Israeli election The vote sees Netanyahu’s Likud party and the far-right coalition it leads under increasing threat from Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot and an opposition bloc he seeks to build. It is an – at least public – ambivalence likely fuelled by shifting political winds in both the US and Israel, as well as the evolving relationship between Trump and Netanyahu, according to Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel programme at the Arab Center Washington DC.
据阿拉伯中心华盛顿特区分部巴勒斯坦/以色列项目负责人尤瑟夫·穆奈耶尔称，这种——至少在公开层面——的冷淡态度，很可能受到美国和以色列政治风向变化的影响，以及特朗普与内塔尼亚胡关系的演变所推动。
“He seems to be keeping greater distance from it than you would think,” Munayyer told Al Jazeera, “given Trump’s past endorsements of right-wing allies, given the history of the Trump-Netanyahu relationship, and just how close Trump and Netanyahu have been”.
“他似乎比你想象的与之保持了更大的距离，”穆奈耶尔对半岛电视台说，“考虑到特朗普过去对右翼盟友的背书，考虑到特朗普-内塔尼亚胡关系的历史，以及两人实际上有多亲近。”
The US president thrice dodged a direct endorsement of Netanyahu in a recent Time magazine interview, even as he defended the Israeli prime minister’s leadership ahead of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.
在最近接受《时代》杂志采访时，特朗普三次回避直接背书内塔尼亚胡，即使他在为以色列总理在2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的对以色列南部的袭击之前的领导力进行辩护。
On Eisenkot, he conceded, “I don’t hear bad things.”
谈到艾森科特时，他 concedes，“我没听到什么不好的话。”支持正在转变吗？
Shifting support?
当然，特朗普对以色列——尤其是对内塔尼亚胡——的行动往往比他的言语更具说服力。
To be sure, Trump’s actions towards Israel – and Netanyahu in particular – have often spoken far louder than his words.
在特朗普2017年至2021年的第一个任期内，他将美国大使馆迁至耶路撒冷，承认以色列对戈兰高地的吞并，退出2015年伊朗核协议，并主导了一系列与阿拉伯国家的正常化协议，旨在规避以巴问题。
During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognised Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and spearheaded a series of normalisation agreements with Arab countries that sought to circumvent the Israel-Palestine issue.
在2025年1月开始的第二个任期内，他继续在加沙种族灭绝期间向以色列输送甚至最具破坏性的美国武器，升级对国际刑事法院（ICC）的打压，并以此为压轴好戏，与伊朗爆发了一场震动全球经济的战争。特朗普还呼吁赦免内塔尼亚胡在其持续进行的腐败审判中的罪行，自去年返回白宫以来，他至少七次接待以色列领导人，远超其他任何世界领导人。
During his second term that started in January 2025, he continued to surge even the most destructive US weapons to Israel amid its genocide in Gaza, escalated a crackdown on the International Criminal Court (ICC) and, as a crown jewel, entered a global economy-rattling war with Iran Trump has also called for Netanyahu to be pardoned in his ongoing corruption trial, while hosting the Israeli leader at least seven times since returning to the White House last year, far more than any other world leader. Throughout their relationship, hints of discord over Netanyahu’s obstruction of Washington’s push for a more lasting peace in Gaza and an end to the war with Iran have never materialised into actual policy changes.
在两人关系过程中，尽管曾有暗示表明内塔尼亚胡阻碍了华盛顿推动加沙更持久和平以及结束与伊朗战争的努力，但这些暗示从未转化为实际的政策变化。
“It’s a relationship they’ve carefully choreographed for public consumption, and the few juicy bits that we’ve learned have been almost entirely of Trump’s choosing,” said Michael Omer-Man, Israel-Palestine director at the Washington, DC-based DAWN think tank, who did not rule out a sweeping US gesture to boost Netanyahu in the final stretch of the race.
“这是一段他们精心编排、供公众消费的关系，而我们所了解到的少数令人感兴趣的细节，几乎完全是特朗普的选择，”华盛顿特区DAWN智库以巴事务主任迈克尔·奥默-曼说道，他也没有排除在美国大选最后阶段做出广泛举动以提振内塔尼亚胡的可能性。
“I don’t think that Trump’s abandoned Netanyahu,” he told Al Jazeera.
“我不认为特朗普已经抛弃了内塔尼亚胡，”他对半岛电视台说。“但他也是个现实主义者，他看到自己在各国支持的众多候选人不仅赢得选举，也经历了失败。”奥默-曼评估称，对特朗普而言，赌注可能并没有那么高。
“But he’s also a realist, and he’s seen a lot of his preferred candidates in various countries lose elections as well as win them.”The stakes may just not be that high for Trump, Omer-Man assessed. Eisenkot has promised a more moderate approach than Netanyahu’s, particularly when it comes to stemming rampant settler violence in the occupied West Bank.
艾森科特承诺将采取比内塔尼亚胡更为温和的做法，特别是在遏制被占领西岸地区猖獗的定居者暴力方面。但这些改变主要是为了提升以色列在欧洲政府和全球公众中的形象，对其与特朗普政府之间已经宽松的关系影响甚微。
But those changes are largely aimed at boosting Israel’s standing among European governments and the global public, with little bearing on already permissive relations with the Trump administration. “I don’t think we would see a whole lot of change vis-a-vis the US, because there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of friction in the relationship,” he said.
“我不认为我们会看到美方方面有很大的变化，因为双方关系似乎并没有很大的摩擦，”他说。
“An Eisenkot government might stop taking over every single hilltop in the West Bank; they might allow more [aid] into Gaza,” he said, “but they’re not going to reverse any of the steps that have already been taken.”
“艾森科特政府可能会停止接管约旦河西岸的每一个山头；他们可能会允许更多[援助]进入加沙，”他说，“但他们不会推翻已经采取的任何步骤。”‘敌人与朋友’国际危机组织以色列问题高级分析师迈拉夫·宗斯泽因也指出，特朗普与内塔尼亚胡关系周围的背景正在发生变化。
‘Enemies versus friends’Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst on Israel at the International Crisis Group, also pointed to the shifting context surrounding Trump and Netanyahu’s relationship.
特朗普的克制部分反映了特朗普政府内部对内塔尼亚胡政府的分歧，而这种分歧又映射出共和党内部更广泛的分歧，随着美国中期选举的临近。
Trump’s reticence reflects, in part, a divide within the Trump administration over Netanyahu’s government, which reflects a wider Republican Party divide as US midterm elections approach.
“这可能是伊朗战争以及特朗普政府内部分裂的综合结果，比如[副总统JD]万斯这样的人，他们公开反对内塔尼亚胡在美国发动对伊朗打击中的角色，”宗斯泽因说。
“It’s probably a combination of the Iran war and the split in the Trump administration with people like [Vice President JD] Vance, who have come out very much against Netanyahu’s role in pushing for the US to strike Iran,” said Zonszein.
民意调查多次表明，共和党内部对以色列的支持仍然很高，但近年来有所下降。党内对内塔尼亚胡的信任也有所下降。
Public opinion polls have repeatedly suggested support for Israel remains high among Republicans, but has ticked down in recent years. Confidence in Netanyahu has also declined within the party.
与此同时，以色列对特朗普影响力的看法也发生了变化，内塔尼亚胡的批评者们抓住美国在黎巴嫩限制以色列行动的角色，这一行动曾威胁到使一份6月谅解备忘录搁浅，而该备忘录曾短暂暂停了美以对伊朗的战争。
At the same time, the perception of Trump’s influence has shifted in Israel, with Netanyahu’s critics seizing on the US role in constraining Israeli operations in Lebanon that threatened to derail a June memorandum of understanding that briefly paused the US-Israel war on Iran.
以色列民主研究所6月发布的一项民意调查显示，只有44%的以色列犹太人认为以色列的安全是特朗普的首要考虑因素，而这一比例在3月为61%，彼时美以刚刚与伊朗开战不久。
An Israeli Democracy Institute poll released in June found only 44 percent of Jewish Israelis thought Israel’s security was a top consideration for Trump, down from 61 percent in March, shortly after the US and Israel launched the war with Iran.
正如宗斯泽因所解释的，内塔尼亚胡在本次选举周期中避免了张贴吹嘘他与特朗普关系密切的广告牌，这与他过去几年的做法有所不同。
For his part, Netanyahu has avoided the billboards boasting his close relationship with Trump this election cycle, a departure from his approach in years past, Zonszein explained.
相反，他突出展示了他所认为的以色列最主要的地区和国际敌人，其中包括真主党秘书长纳伊姆·卡塞姆、土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安以及纽约市市长佐兰·曼丹尼。
Instead, he has featured who he considers to be Israel’s top regional and international foes, including Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
宗斯泽因表示，内塔尼亚胡正在强调“他的敌人 versus 他的朋友”。
Netanyahu, Zonszein said, is highlighting “his enemies versus his friends”.