根据高盛最新分析，随着美国和中国两个日益分化的人工智能生态系统的出现，可能是时候重新思考人工智能贸易了。由金格·劳（Kinger Lau）领导的策略师团队在周日发布的一份报告中写道：“全球人工智能双寡头的叙事正在投资者中获得认同。”一个生态系统以美国及其主要贸易伙伴为中心，另一个则在中国逐渐成形，反映了地缘政治、国家安全和增长因素，他们写道。
It may be time to rethink the AI trade as two increasingly distinct AI ecosystems emerge around the US and China, according to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs. "The narrative of a global AI duopoly is gaining traction among investors," wrote strategists led by Kinger Lau in a note published on Sunday. One ecosystem is centered on the US and its key trading partners, while the other is taking shape in China, reflecting geopolitical, national security, and growth considerations, they wrote.
该行指出，DeepSeek和Kimi在大语言模型方面的突破，以及在半导体封装与计算、生物工程和航空航天领域的进展。高盛补充称，中国不再仅仅是全球人工智能建设的主要供应商。它也正在构建一个涵盖先进芯片、开放权重大语言模型以及可能与美国主导的生态系统竞争的人工智能应用的人工智能生态系统。策略师们写道：“重要的是，中国与西方之间的技术差距似乎正在缩小。”
The bank pointed to breakthroughs by DeepSeek and Kimi in large language models, alongside advances in semiconductor packaging and computing, biological engineering, and aerospace. China is no longer just a major supplier to the global AI buildout, Goldman added. It is also building an AI ecosystem spanning advanced chips, open-weight large language models, and AI applications that could compete with the US-led ecosystem, Goldman Sachs wrote. "Importantly, the technology gaps between China and the West seem to be narrowing," the strategists wrote.
虽然中国在半导体领先边缘仍落后几代，但在人工智能算力、基础设施、模型以及物理人工智能应用的某些方面，它“可能已与全球竞争对手持平，甚至领先”，他们补充道。这一变化的格局正在重塑高盛的人工智能投资框架。高盛不再将人工智能视为单一的全球投资主题，而是将中国人工智能股票分为两类：与西方人工智能支出挂钩的出口型企业，以及受益于中国自身人工智能投资、日益增长的采用和政策支持的国内企业。
While China remains several generations behind at the leading edge of semiconductors, it is "probably on par with, or even leading," global competitors in parts of AI power, infrastructure, models, and physical AI applications, they added. The changing landscape is reshaping Goldman's AI investment framework. Rather than treating AI as a single global investment theme, Goldman divides Chinese AI stocks into two groups: exporters tied to Western AI spending and domestic companies benefiting from China's own AI investment, growing adoption, and policy support.
出口型企业对全球人工智能投资趋势和地缘政治更为敏感，而专注于国内市场的企业则与中国的人工智能支出和政府政策更为紧密相关，高盛的策略师团队写道。这些差异已经在市场表现中显现。
The exporters are more sensitive to global AI investment trends and geopolitics, while domestically focused companies are more closely tied to Chinese AI spending and government policy, Goldman's strategists wrote. Those differences are already showing up in market performance.
高盛的分析显示，中国人工智能出口商在2025年初至2026年6月期间涨幅达到126%，随后在全球人工智能遭抛售期间从峰值下跌了23%。自回调以来，中国本土人工智能公司的表现更为坚挺。高盛表示，自2025年初的“DeepSeek时刻”以来，中国人工智能相关公开上市股票通过股价上涨和首次公开募股（IPO）创造了近5万亿美元的市值。高盛的数据显示，人工智能相关股票目前占中国在内地和香港上市股票总市值的42%，高于2024年的24%。其在交易额中所占的份额已从48%上升至57%。
Chinese AI exporters gained 126% from early 2025 through June 2026 before falling 23% from their peak during the global AI selloff. Domestic AI companies have held up better since the correction, according to Goldman's analysis. Since the "DeepSeek moment" in early 2025, nearly $5 trillion in market value has been created in Chinese AI-related public equities through share price gains and IPOs, according to Goldman. AI-related stocks now account for 42% of the combined stock market value of Chinese stocks listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, up from 24% in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. Their share of trading turnover has risen to 57% from 48%.