共和党人已经失去对最后时刻出现惊人转机的希望,这种转机本可能大幅改变对他们日益不利的中期选举算式。相反,他们正竭力自保。
Republicans have lost hope for a last-minute surprise that will substantially change midterm math that’s increasingly adding up against them. Instead, they’re doing what they can to save themselves.
许多人正在与特朗普总统最不受欢迎的政策保持距离——在某些情况下,这些政策他们仅在数周前还曾赞同——因为民调显示总统支持率极低,且有把共和党候选人一起拖垮的风险。
Many are distancing themselves from some of President Donald Trump’s most unpopular policies — in some cases, ones they agreed with only weeks before — as polls show the president is deeply unpopular and at risk of dragging Republican candidates down with him.
虽然执政党在艰难的中期选举周期中常常受到冲击,但在特朗普执政时期尤为显著,他历来对异议的回应极为凶狠。
While the party in power often takes a beating in tough midterm cycles, it is especially notable under Trump, who has historically responded viciously to dissent.
“全国范围内出现了一些重置,共和党人开始说出他们想说的话,对后果的担忧也减少了,”前总统乔治·W·布什的白宫新闻秘书阿里·弗莱舍尔说。
“There’s been a little bit of a reset across the country where Republicans are saying what they want to say and less worried about repercussions,” said Ari Fleischer, White House press secretary for former President George W. Bush.
密歇根州参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯和阿拉斯加州参议员丹·沙利文周五成为最新公开与总统政策背道而驰的共和党人,表达了对特朗普与弗拉基米尔·普京达成的从俄罗斯进口柴油协议的担忧。
Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan on Friday became the latest Republicans to break with one of the president’s policies, voicing concern over Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin to import diesel from Russia.
沙利文的发言人内特·亚当斯在声明中表示,参议员“认为美国能源主导是应对高油价的答案,这意味着在阿拉斯加由阿拉斯加人生产更多能源,而不是从俄罗斯进口。”特朗普周二在阿拉斯加瓦西拉为沙利文助选。
Nate Adams, a spokesperson for Sullivan, said in a statement that the senator “believes American energy dominance is the answer to high prices, and that means producing more of it in Alaska, for Alaskans, by Alaskans, not importing it from Russia.”Trump stumped for Sullivan Tuesday in Wasilla, Alaska.
“你根本不想给那个人任何让步,”罗杰斯在密歇根一次竞选活动前接受记者采访时说。罗杰斯表示他反对从俄罗斯进口柴油,倾向于实行临时的柴油出口禁令,正如白宫曾考虑但最终放弃的方案。
“You just don’t want to give that guy an inch,” Rogers told reporters Friday before a campaign event in Michigan. Rogers said he opposed importing diesel from Russia and preferred a temporary diesel export ban, such as one the White House considered and rejected.
这些言论是在其他共和党候选人采取类似行动、试图与白宫保持距离之后发表的。在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州,参议院候选人、众议员阿什利·赫森和参议员约翰·赫斯特德呼吁尽快结束伊朗战争。在佛罗里达州,众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔表示,特朗普的驱逐出境政策走得太远了。在堪萨斯州,参议员罗杰·马歇尔表示,他对总统计划进口外国牛肉感到“沮丧”。而罗杰斯关于俄罗斯燃料的立场,是在他在上周表达了对总统与加拿大贸易战的担忧之后形成的。
The remarks come on the heels of similar moves by other GOP candidates to create distance from the White House. In Iowa and Ohio, Senate hopeful Rep. Ashley Hinson and Sen. Jon Husted called for a quickend to the Iran war. In Florida, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar said Trump's deportation policies went too far. In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall said he was “frustrated” by the president’s plan to import foreign beef. And Rogers’ position on Russian fuel comes after he voiced concerns last week about the president’s trade war with Canada.
这些言论共同反映了全国范围内普遍存在的不满情绪——共和党人普遍认为,特朗普政府没有做得更好来为中期选举奠定更有利的经济形势。越来越多的共和党人已经接受这样的现实:特朗普不会在十月带来惊喜来提振他们的竞选活动。
Together, they’re reflective of the overall sour mood across the country, where Republicans are broadly upset that the Trump administration hasn’t done more to better set the economic stage for the midterm elections. Growing numbers of Republicans are resigned to the idea that Trump won’t deliver an October surprise to jolt their campaigns.
汽油价格降至每加仑4美元以下已经来不及了,抵押贷款利率不太可能大幅下降,牛肉价格仍然处于历史高位。这导致候选人寻找方式来表明,即使特朗普看来并不关注,他们也能回应选民的关切。
It’s too late for gas prices to drop under $4 per gallon, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall significantly and beef prices remain at historic highs. That’s led to candidates looking for ways to show they are responsive to voters’ concerns even when Trump doesn’t appear to be.
在堪萨斯州,马歇尔正陷入与民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿出乎意料的激烈竞争之中。农民们不仅要应对总统的关税议程——这一议程已经导致供应链问题持续超过一年——还要面对柴油成本上升、劳动力短缺,以及特朗普政府试图通过降低牛肉价格来牺牲美国牛牧场主利益的努力。
In Kansas, where Marshall is mired in an unexpectedly close contest with Democrat Adam Hamilton, farmers are grappling with not only the president’s tariff agenda — which has caused supply-chain headaches for more than a year — but rising diesel costs, labor shortages and the Trump administration’s efforts to lower beef prices at the expense of U.S. cattle ranchers. Marshall said that the president’s move to import foreign beef sent the wrong signal to domestic cattle ranchers.
马歇尔表示,总统进口外国牛肉的举动向国内牛牧场主传递了错误的信号。
“There is a concern that people say I’m going to pass this year and vote in two years for president,” said Ken Rahjes, a GOP state lawmaker in western Kansas, who said he still believes Republicans will turn out in November.
“人们担心我说我会今年通过、两年后再投票选总统,”堪萨斯州西部的共和党州议员肯·拉赫斯说,他表示自己仍然相信共和党人将在十一月投票。
A White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said there is “absolutely no distance” between Trump and Republicans, providing a long list of candidates who have appeared alongside the president at rallies in their states or attended the Dallas midterm convention, as well as examples of more than two dozen candidates who have featured the president prominently on social media.
一位获准匿名以便坦率发言的白宫官员表示,特朗普与共和党之间“绝对没有距离”,并提供了一份长名单,列出了在各自州内的集会上与总统同台、或出席达拉斯中期选举大会的候选人,以及二十多位在社交媒体上突出展示总统形象的候选人案例。
“These candidates are talking about the issues in their states. They are running real campaigns and these are kitchen-table topics they need to address — they aren’t breaking with [Trump’s policies],” the official said.
“这些候选人正在谈论他们所在州的议题。他们在进行真正的竞选活动,这些是他们需要回应的餐桌议题——他们并没有与[特朗普的政策]决裂,”该官员说。
The White House and Trump-aligned GOP operatives have made clear that the president is tolerating the moves from candidates, so long as they don’t criticize him directly.
白宫和特朗普阵营的共和党操盘手已明确表示,只要候选人不直接批评总统,总统就会容忍他们的做法。第二位获准匿名透露私下谈话细节的白宫官员表示,他向总统解释说,“仅仅因为他们在某个议题上持有”与总统“相冲突的立场,并不意味着他们在‘抗拒’他”——总统表示同意。
A second White House official, granted anonymity to share details of private conversations, said that he explained to the president that “just because they have a stance on an issue” that conflicts with the president's “doesn’t mean they are balking” him — and that the president agreed. “Candidates need to be able to talk to the issues, but it's certainly not a balk at him or a stiff arm or anything like that,” the official said, noting that candidates like Hinson have still been appearing with the president even as they’ve disagreed.
“候选人需要能够谈论议题,但这绝不是对他‘抗拒’或‘推拒’或类似行为,”该官员说,并指出像辛森这样的候选人尽管有分歧,仍一直与总统同台亮相。
It is true that Republicans rarely criticize Trump even as they urge him to change many of the policies that have come to define his second term.
的确,共和党人很少批评特朗普,即使他们在敦促他改变许多已来定义其第二任期的政策。
Rogers last week released a campaign ad — which features the candidate at a bar drinking a Canadian beer the U.S. has prohibited importing — calling for an end to Trump’s month-plus trade war with Canada.
罗杰斯上周发布了一则竞选广告——广告中候选人在酒吧喝着美国已禁止进口的加拿大啤酒——呼吁结束特朗普持续一个多月的对加贸易战。
It was a reversal for Rogers who shortly after the trade war started in August said in an interview on Fox News that “some” of the trade war was the “right thing” for Michigan and that “the Canadians have not been good partners.”
罗杰斯在贸易战于八月开始后不久曾在福克斯新闻的一次采访中表示,“一些”贸易战对密歇根来说是“正确的事情”,并且“加拿大人一直不是好伙伴”,如今出现了逆转。
“It shouldn’t be surprising that folks are looking for opportunities to distance themselves from Washington,” said Michigan strategist Jason Roe, who is working on Rep. Tom Barrett’s (R-Mich.) re-election campaign.
“人们寻找与华盛顿保持距离的机会并不令人意外,”密歇根州策划人杰森·罗伊说,他正在为众议员汤姆·巴雷特(共和党-密歇根州)的连任竞选工作。“如果问题得不到解决,情况也不会改善,那么你就需要谈论它。”辛森批评了伊朗战争的连锁反应,称她的选民“正被压榨”,并且“在加油站或结账时不应该为伊朗战争买单。”罗杰斯、赫斯特以及威斯康星州州长候选人汤姆·蒂凡尼也都呼吁结束战争。
“If there’s not going to be a resolution and things aren’t going to improve, then you need to be talking about it.”Hinson has criticized the knock-on effects of the Iran war, saying that her constituents “are being squeezed” and “shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.”Rogers, Husted and Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany have all also called for an end to the war. “Everybody is so upset out here. They’re mad,” said Iowa farmer Lance Lillibridge, an informal ag adviser to Hinson who is active in GOP politics in the state.
“这里每个人都很生气。他们很愤怒,”爱荷华州农民兰斯·利利布里奇说,他是辛森的非正式农业顾问,在州内积极参与共和党政治。
“I gotta agree with her. I want it to end as well, and so does everybody in Iowa, and her job is to take that message to Washington,” said Lillibridge, who added that he remains a staunch supporter of the president and believes fertilizer companies are to blame for the squeeze farmers are feeling.
“我得同意她的看法。我也希望战争能结束,爱荷华州的每个人也是这样,而她的职责就是把这个信息带到华盛顿,”利利布里奇说,并补充道,他仍然是总统的坚定支持者,并认为肥料公司应对农民感受到的压力负责。
RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said that “Republicans remain united behind the president's agenda of cutting taxes, lowering drug costs, and securing our communities.”
共和全国委员会发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷表示,“共和党人仍然团结在总统的议程背后,即减税、降低药品成本和保障社区安全。”“我们专注于获胜,我们的候选人将参加必要的竞选,以最好地代表他们的选区,并防止民主党夺取控制权,”她说。辛森和马歇尔竞选团队的发言人未能立即回应置评请求。
“We are laser- focused on winning, and our candidates will run the races necessary to best represent their districts and prevent Democrats from taking control,” she said. Spokespeople for the Hinson and Marshall campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the Rogers campaign referred back to his public remarks, while Adams, the Sullivan spokesperson, noted that the senator has worked with the administration on several efforts to bring down the cost of diesel in Alaska, including last week’s dyed diesel executive order.
罗杰斯竞选团队发言人援引了他之前的公开言论,而沙利文的发言人亚当斯指出,该参议员一直与政府合作,通过多项努力降低阿拉斯加柴油成本,包括上周的染色柴油行政命令。
The White House has, in some cases, communicated with campaigns and candidates on their messaging, giving them leeway to diverge from the president’s, so long as they aren’t directly criticizing Trump himself.
白宫在某些情况下曾与竞选团队和候选人就其信息传递进行沟通,允许他们在不直接批评特朗普本人的前提下,偏离总统的立场。周三,当被问及罗杰斯呼吁结束贸易战的广告时,特朗普告诉记者他“认为这是他希望加拿大达成协议的方式”,罗杰斯本人在周四晚上的辩论中也强调了这一点,指出他曾就此事与商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克进行过交谈。
Asked Wednesday about the Rogers ad calling for an end to the trade war, Trump told reporters he “viewed it as he wanted Canada to make a deal,” a point Rogers himself underscored during a Thursday night debate, noting that he had spoken with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the issue. While the Michigan and Maine Senate races have been most roiled by the Canadian tariffs, they’re having ripple effects in other contests.
虽然密歇根州和缅因州的参议院选举受到加拿大关税的冲击最为剧烈,但其影响也在波及其他选举。阿拉斯加参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基表示,如果加拿大关税不是问题,这将有助于像沙利文这样的共和党候选人。
Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski said it would help Republican candidates like Sullivan if the Canadian tariffs were not an issue. "They're having an impact in Alaska too, when it comes to [the] cost of goods.
“这也在阿拉斯加产生了影响,特别是在商品成本方面。但我不知道人们是否像在其他一些边境州那样,如此明显地建立起这种联系,”穆尔科斯基说。
But I don't know that people are making that connection as much as they may in some of the other border states,” Murkowski said.