欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在曼谷接受CNN全球视角节目主持人理查德·奎斯特的采访。
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks to Richard Quest at CNN Global Perspectives in Bangkok.
当前情况：我们已做好了充分准备来应对各种情况。种种迹象表明，当前局势错综复杂。虽然通胀率持续上升，但这一趋势并不仅仅由能源价格因素驱动，还有许多其他不确定性因素。正因如此，我们才能够全面审视当前形势、细致分析各项数据、准确把握事态发展脉络，进而判断间接影响在经济体系中扩散的程度，并据此做出最恰当的预判。
CURRENT >> THE MEASURED RESPONSE COMES TOGETHER WITH WE ARE WELL POSITIONED. THEY COME TOGETHER. THE FACT THAT THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT INFLATION HAS BEEN RISING PREDOMINANTLY, BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY AS A RESULT OF ENERGY PRICES IS LEADING US TO BE IN A POSITION WHERE WE CAN LOOK AT THE SITUATION, ANALYZE THE DATA, UNDERSTAND THE DEVELOPMENT AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH INDIRECT EFFECTS ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE ECONOMY AND SEE HOW BEST WE CAN ANTICIPATE.
目前尚未出现通胀的二次传导效应，但我们必须高度警惕任何可能预示此类效应的细微迹象或指标。问题在于，一旦这些二次效应显现出来，往往为时已晚。正因如此我才强调要运用科学手段来监测这些潜在的二次效应迹象——毕竟我们不能等到它们完全显现才采取行动，而必须提前做好预判。
IF SECOND ROUND EFFECTS ARE SHOWING UP, WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY OF THAT YET, BUT WE HAVE TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL THAT LITTLE SIGNS, INDICES OF SUCH SECONDARY EFFECTS ARE VISIBLE. >> AND THE PROBLEM WITH SECONDARY EFFECTS IS BY THE TIME YOU SEE THEM, IT'S TOO LATE. >> WHICH IS WHY I USE THE THE WORD SCIENCE INDICES HINTS OF SECOND ROUND EFFECTS.
您是唯一一位成功将通胀率控制在目标水平的经济决策者。可战争爆发之后，情况又回到了原点。其实也不能说是完全回到原点吧……我甚至不确定所谓的“原点”究竟指什么。如今通胀率再度攀升，我们不得不收紧货币政策，目前利率水平已处于中性区间的上限。这些描述都准确无误。
BECAUSE YOU'RE RIGHT, WE CANNOT WAIT UNTIL THEY ARE THERE IN FULL VIEW. BUT WE CAN ANTICIPATE. >> YOU WERE THE ONLY ONE THAT GOT INFLATION DOWN TO TARGET. YOU'VE GOT INFLATION DOWN TO TARGET. THEN THE WAR HAPPENS AND NOW YOU'RE BACK TO SQUARE ONE. >> WELL, NOT QUITE SQUARE ONE. I DON'T KNOW WHAT SQUARE ONE IS. YOU KNOW. >> HIGHER INFLATION AND HAVING TO TIGHTEN MONETARY POLICY. YOU'RE AT THE UPPER END OF THE NEUTRAL BAND. >> YEAH.
说到您不得不重新努力将通胀率压回目标值这一令人沮丧的处境……其实每次经济冲击都有其特殊性。当初因新冠疫情及解封后激增的需求，我们在实施紧缩政策时通胀率已处于高位，那属于特定历史环境下的特殊情况。与此同时，乌克兰战争爆发又引发了能源危机。而当前我们所面对的形势又与前两者截然不同。每种情况都必须单独加以分析。眼下俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争仍在持续，这给炼油产能带来了巨大压力——这一点想必您也清楚。
ALL OF THAT IS CORRECT. >> WELL, ON THE QUESTION OF THE FRUSTRATION, THOUGH, THAT YOU'VE GOT TO GO THROUGH IT ALL AGAIN OF TRYING TO GET IT BACK DOWN TO TARGET. >> YOU KNOW, EVERY SHOCK IS DIFFERENT. OKAY, SO WE WERE VERY HIGH WHEN WE STARTED TIGHTENING AGAIN BECAUSE OF COVID, BECAUSE OF THE, YOU KNOW, THE DEMAND, UM, THAT OCCURRED AFTER COVID RESTRICTIONS WERE LIFTED. THAT WAS A PARTICULAR SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES. AT THE SAME TIME, WE HAD THE WAR IN UKRAINE. WE HAD AN ENERGY SHOCK. WHAT WE ARE SEEING AT THE MOMENT IS DIFFERENT. AND EVERY SITUATION HAS TO BE ANALYZED ON ITS OWN MERITS. SO WHAT WE HAVE AT THE MOMENT IS THIS RECURRING, INFAMOUS WAR OF RUSSIA AGAINST UKRAINE THAT IS CONTINUING, AND IT'S PUTTING PRESSURE ON REFINERY CAPACITIES. AS YOU KNOW.
但自3月26日以来，我们也面临着中东战争，这也给石油和天然气的供应和运输带来了巨大压力。因此，这更多地——嗯，我是说，如果我要归因于原因的话，主要是能源价格和能源短缺的风险。它还
BUT SINCE MARCH 26th, WE ALSO HAVE THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH IS ALSO PUTTING A HUGE STRAIN ON THE SUPPLY AND MOVEMENT OF OIL AND GAS. SO THIS IS MORE, UM, I MEAN, IF I WAS TO ATTRIBUTE THE CAUSES, IT'S LARGELY ENERGY PRICES, RISK OF ENERGY SHORTAGES. IT'S ALSO