SETH BORENSTEIN 华盛顿 — 一项新研究发现，气候变化和厄尔尼诺现象共同导致上个月爆发性增强的飓风“波洛”迅速加剧，而“波洛”也是有史以来在太平洋持续时间最长的五级飓风。
SETH BORENSTEIN WASHINGTON — A new study finds that climate change and El Niño combined to rev up last month’s explosively intensifying Hurricane Polo, which was the longest-lasting Category 5 storm ever to churn in the Pacific.
根据科学组织世界天气归因（World Weather Attribution）和气候中心（Climate Central）周四联合发表的研究，由燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气引起的全球变暖是导致飓风增强的两个因素中影响更大的一个，使其原本就已强大的风速增加了约6英里/小时（近10公里/小时）。研究合著者表示，厄尔尼诺现象的贡献略小，约为5英里/小时（8公里/小时）。
Global warming caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas was the bigger of the two culprits, adding about 6 mph (nearly 10 kph) to its already monstrous strength, according to a joint study published Thursday by the science teams World Weather Attribution and Climate Central. El Niño contributed a bit less, about 5 mph (8 kph), a study co-author said.
研究发现，气候变化使导致飓风形成的条件发生的可能性增加了23倍，而厄尔尼诺 — — 即太平洋部分地区自然且暂时性的变暖 — — 使其发生的可能性增加了14倍。研究称，这一切都与海面温度达到88华氏度（31.2摄氏度）有关，这一温度比正常水平高出多达3.6华氏度（2摄氏度）。
Climate change made the conditions that fueled the hurricane 23 times more likely, while El Niño — the natural and temporary warming of parts of the Pacific — made it 14 times more likely, the study found. It all has to do with the 88-degree Fahrenheit (31.2 degrees Celsius) waters that were as much as 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) warmer than normal, the study said.
今年由于出现超强厄尔尼诺现象，太平洋风暴的强度和持续时间均创历史新纪录。“波洛”创下了太平洋地区持续五级状态最长时间的纪录，达到两天半。
This year, with a super strong El Niño, has set records for strength and longevity of Pacific storms. Polo set the record for time spent at Category 5 in the Pacific at two-and-a-half days.
“厄尔尼诺和气候变化都使得此次飓风的强度超过了原本可能的水平，但气候变化的影响甚至大于厄尔尼诺的影响，”世界天气归因背后国际科学团队的协调人、气候科学家兼研究合著者弗里德里克·奥托（Friederike Otto）表示。
“El Niño and climate change both made this hurricane stronger than it would have otherwise been, but the effect of climate change is even bigger than the one of El Niño,” said climate scientist and study co-author Friederike Otto, who coordinates the international science team behind World Weather Attribution.
“厄尔尼诺会来来去去，但气候变化只会越来越糟。这意味着，如今东太平洋将要发生的每场飓风都至少带有这种气候变化信号，使其变得更强。只要我们继续燃烧化石燃料，这种影响只会越来越大，”奥托补充道。
“El Niño comes and goes, but climate change only gets worse. That means that now every hurricane that will occur in the East Pacific has at least this climate change signal making it stronger. And as long as we keep burning fossil fuels, that will only get bigger,” Otto added.
研究人员发现，即便没有气候变化和厄尔尼诺现象，“波洛”依然会是一场可怕的风暴。但每增加一点风速都可能显著加大破坏力。
Researchers found that without climate change and El Niño, Polo would have been a monster storm anyway. But every bit of additional wind speed can dramatically increase the damage.
虽然飓风波洛在袭击墨西哥人口稀少地区之前明显减弱，但科学家们仍对它如何在大约24小时内从热带风暴迅速增强为五级飓风——即萨菲尔-辛普森飓风等级表的最高级别——感到着迷。
While Hurricane Polo ultimately weakened considerably before it hit a sparsely populated part of Mexico, scientists remain fascinated by how it turbocharged from a tropical storm to a top-of-the-chart Category 5 hurricane in about 24 hours.
气候中心（总部位于新泽西州的科学与新闻非营利组织）的气候科学家兼科学副总裁克里斯蒂娜·达尔表示，这项研究把不同的大气危害置于了适当的视角。
The study puts the different atmospheric dangers in perspective, said Kristina Dahl, a climate scientist and vice president of science at Climate Central, a science and journalism nonprofit out of New Jersey.
她说：“这是一个有力的提醒，即尽管厄尔尼诺目前正在全球范围内转移灾害，改变洪水和干旱发生的地区，但这一切背后真正占主导地位的信号仍然是气候变化。”
“It’s a powerful reminder that even though El Niño right now is shifting hazards around the globe and changing where it’s flooding and getting dry, the really dominant signal behind all of this remains climate change,” she said.
该研究考察了为风暴提供能量的暖水，并利用一种衡量风暴可能达到强度的指标。但研究并未聚焦于厄尔尼诺影响显著的高层风切变。厄尔尼诺通常会增加大西洋地区高空的风暴毁灭性强风。然而，由于风向模式的变化，在太平洋地区，厄尔尼诺反而会减少削弱风暴的风速。
The study looked at the warm water that fuels storms, using a measure of how strong they can get. But the study didn’t focus on the upper level wind shear where El Niño has a huge footprint. El Niño usually increases those storm-decapitating high altitude winds in the Atlantic. However, in the Pacific because of changes in wind patterns, El Niño decreases the winds that weaken storms.
两组研究人员测量条件的方式略有不同，并采用了不同的技术手段，但得到了总体上一致的结论，这使他们对结果更有信心。然而，这项快速研究尚未经过同行评审——这是科学领域的金标准。
The two sets of researchers measured conditions slightly differently and used different techniques but came to the same general conclusion, making them more confident in the result. However, the rapid study has not had time to be peer-reviewed, which is the gold standard of science.
为了计算气候变化对飓风波洛的影响，两个研究团队都采用了科学界公认的方法：即将我们当前升温的真实世界发生的情况，与一个假设的、自工业革命以来未升温2.5摄氏度（相当于1.4摄氏度）的世界进行比较。
To calculate the impact of climate change on Polo, both teams used the scientifically accepted method of comparing what happened in our warmer real world to a hypothetical world that hasn’t warmed by 2.5 degrees (1.4 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times.
气候中心科学家、该研究共同作者丹尼尔·吉尔福德表示，他们研究的过程类似于道路上的汽车。厄尔尼诺带来的风切变可以是红灯，就像在大西洋那样，也可以是绿灯，就像在太平洋那样。在太平洋，绿灯表示可以前进，而气候变化和厄尔尼诺共同升温的海水则像是一名踩到底油门的司机。
Study co-author Daniel Gilford, a Climate Central scientist, said the process they looked at was similar to cars on a road. Wind shear from El Niño can be a red light, as it is in the Atlantic, or a green light, as it is in the Pacific. In the Pacific that green light says go, and then the water warmed by both climate change and El Niño acts like a driver flooring the accelerator.
州立大学阿尔巴尼分校的大气科学家布莱恩·唐未参与该研究，但他表示，最初看到研究发现气候变化对波洛的影响更大时感到惊讶，“考虑到这次厄尔尼诺如此极端，但从长期角度来看，也许结果并没有看起来那么令人惊讶。”然而，耶鲁气候联络的杰夫·马斯特斯、宾夕法尼亚大学的迈克尔·曼以及北卡罗来纳州立大学的卡尔·施雷克等三位外部科学家认为，该研究低估了气候变化对波洛强度的提升程度。
University at Albany atmospheric scientist Brian Tang, who wasn’t part of the study, said he was initially surprised that the research found climate change to be the bigger influence on Polo, “given how extreme this El Niño is, but from a long-term standpoint, perhaps the result isn’t as surprising as it might seem.”But three other outside scientists — Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections, University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Mann and North Carolina State University’s Carl Schreck — said they believe the study underestimates how much climate change has added to Polo’s strength.
马斯特斯指出，吉尔福德自身在2024年的研究曾发现，气候变化在2019年至2023年间为大西洋飓风增加了每小时16英里（30公里）的风速。
Masters pointed to Gilford’s own 2024 study that found climate change added 16 mph (30 kph) to hurricanes in the Atlantic from 2019 to 2023.
吉尔福德承认，周四的报告可能在一定程度上低估了气候变化的影响，但他表示自己已将其他条件纳入考量，并采取了保守的估算方式。
Gilford acknowledged that Thursday’s report could be underestimating climate change’s impact a bit, but said he was factoring in other conditions and being conservative.