字号·· | 护眼
德国之声

高超音速导弹凸显朝鲜半岛军备竞赛Hypersonic missiles highlight arms race on Korean Peninsula

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

高超音速导弹对防御方而言要识别、跟踪和摧毁都困难得多[资料图:2022年1月6日] 图片来源:韩联社/图片联盟Hypersonic missiles are far harder for defenders to identify, track and destroy [FILE: January 6, 2022] Image: YONHAPNEWS AGENCY/picture alliance

Julian Ryall 2026年10月15日 两韩及平壤现已测试了因其速度和机动性而令军事规划者感到忧虑的武器。

Julian Ryall October 15, 2026 Both Seoul and Pyongyang have now tested weapons feared by military planners for their speed and ability to maneuver in flight.

高超音速导弹对防卫方而言极难识别、追踪和摧毁 [文件照片:2022年1月6日] 朝鲜称已于周三在其东海岸外试射两种潜射巡航导弹,此前韩国国家新闻社报道称国家领导人金正恩参观了新建的国防工业博物馆,并观赏到据称能打击美国本土目标的洲际弹道导弹。

Hypersonic missiles are far harder for defenders to identify, track and destroy [FILE: January 6, 2022] North Korea said it had tested two types of submarine-launched cruise missiles off its east coast on Wednesday, a day after the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported that leader Kim Jong Un had visited a new defense industry museum where he had admired an intercontinental ballistic missile reportedly capable of hitting targets in the continental United States.

此行发生在金正恩于上周五观察到其国民首枚国产高超音速导弹试射后的五天。

The visit came five days after South Korean President Lee Jae-myung observed the test launch of his country's first domestically developed hypersonic missile.

在印太地区紧张局势持续恶化之际,两韩均加速研发高超音速技术,主要原因在于该技术具备显著优势。

South Korea's breakthrough came after Pyongyang announced a test on October 3 of what it described as a hypersonic intermediate-range missile that traveled 350 kilometers (217 miles) before striking its target.

平壤称已于10月14日在其东海岸外试射两种潜射巡航导弹。高超音速导弹是能够以至少五倍音速(马赫5)或每小时6100公里的速度飞行的武器。

"Comrade Kim Jong Un expressed the expectation and belief that all the nation's missile forces would remain faithful to their missions of defending the sovereignty and security of the republic in a responsible combat posture," the KCNA reported.

他们的速度使得防御方识别、追踪和摧毁来袭导弹变得更加困难,这些导弹可以携带常规或核弹头。相较于之前一代导弹,它们的额外优势在于能够在飞行中突然改变航向、俯冲或蛇形机动,这使得拦截变得显著更难。

A step-up in offensive capabilities Both North and South Korea are racing to develop hypersonic technology primarily because it offers a at a time of worsening tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. Pyongyang said it had tested two types of submarine-launched cruise missiles off its east coast on October 14 Hypersonic missiles are weapons that can travel at velocities of at least five times the speed of sound (Mach 5) or over 6,100 kilometers per hour.

“朝鲜半岛多年来一直存在军备竞赛,高超音速武器只是这种竞赛的最新表现,”危机集团国际组织的朝鲜半岛分析师克里斯·格林说。

Their speed makes it far harder for defenders to identify, track and destroy inbound missiles, which can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. Their additional advantage over previous generations of missiles is their ability to suddenly change course, dip or weave in flight, making interception significantly more difficult.

他表示,随着朝鲜不断提升能力并与俄罗斯建立军事和经济联系,高超音速武器已成为“南方的首要任务”。

"There has been an arms race on the Korean Peninsula for many years and hypersonic weapons are just the latest manifestation of that," said Chris Green, Korea Peninsula analyst for Crisis Group International.

朝鲜拥有核武器,但使用它们并不可行,因为威胁一直在于:一旦使用,美国就会把这个国家变成玻璃,”他对德国之声说。

Hypersonic weapons have become a "priority for the South" as the North has ramped up its capabilities and forged military and economic ties with Russia, he said. North Korea has nuclear weapons but it would not be viable to use them as the threat has always been that doing so would mean that the US would turn the country to glass," he told DW.

“对于朝鲜来说,该地区的地缘政治局势促使其追求先进的常规武器,以在半岛上实现主导地位,这并不令人意外。”朝鲜从伊朗战争中吸取了什么教训?

"For the North, it is unsurprising that the geopolitics of the region have encouraged them to pursue advanced conventional weapons as they try to have dominance on the peninsula." What lessons is North Korea learning from the Iran war?

要观看此视频,以及平壤“不应被低估”。虽然无法绝对确认朝鲜声称研发的武器是否具备其所宣称的能力,但格林表示,低估平壤将是一个错误。

To view this video , and Pyongyang 'should not be underestimated' And while it is impossible to confirm with any certainty that the weapons the North says it has developed have the capabilities they claim, Green said it would be a mistake to underestimate Pyongyang.

“我们不知道他们的能力,这有可能全是宣传,但朝鲜的能力长期被低估,结果却被证明他们事实上能够做到自己所说的事情。”韩国陆军退役将军、目前担任国家威慑研究所高级研究员的全仁范也持这一威胁评估。

"We do not know their capabilities and it is possible this is all propaganda, but there is a long list of times the North's capabilities have been underestimated only to be shown that they can, in fact, do what they say." Chun In-bum, a retired general in the South Korean army and now a senior fellow with the National Institute for Deterrence Studies, shares that assessment of the threat.

“他们在这件事上是否在说真话,无人能知,但任何审慎的军事规划者都应始终假设最坏的情况,”他说。

"It's anybody's guess whether they're telling the truth on this, but any prudent military planner should always assume the worst," he said.

朝鲜掌握操作高超音速导弹所需的先进技术似乎是突然发生的,尽管目前仍不清楚它是如何获得这种能力的。

The North's mastery of the advanced technology required to operate hypersonic missiles appears to have been sudden, although it remains unclear how it acquired the capability.

“他们很可能通过非法手段获得了这项技术,” Chun 说。“他们在美国、韩国和日本的公司周围窃取此类信息,但他们也会对他们的'朋友'这样做。”无论数据来自何处,朝鲜的高超音速导弹似乎能够按要求运行这一事实,应该引起深切关注。

"They probably obtained the technology through illegal means," Chun said. "They snoop around firms in the US, South Korea and Japan for this sort of information, but they also do it to their 'friends.'" Wherever the data came from, the fact that North Korea's hypersonic missiles appear to have performed as required should be cause for deep concern.

“更强的进攻能力会增加朝鲜所构成的整体危险,如果他们拥有更难以击落的武器,那么使用它们的诱惑可能会更大,” Chun 说。

"A greater offensive capability increases the overall danger posed by the North, and if they have weapons that are harder to shoot down, then it is possible there are greater temptations to use them," Chun said.

“当然,我在推测,但我确信我们正在寻找中和这一特定威胁的方法,但据我所知,目前还没有好的答案,” Chun 补充道。韩国提出谈判以正式结束与朝鲜的战争,相互抵消?

"I'm speculating, of course, but I'm sure that we are looking at ways to neutralize this particular threat, but as I understand it there is no good answer right now," Chun added. South Korea proposes talks to officially end war with North Canceling each other out?

然而,Green 认为,双方都在发展可行的系统,这意味着它们可能在战场上相互抵消,从而失去强大的优势。

Green, however, believes that both sides developing viable systems means that they may cancel each other out as a potent battlefield advantage.

“我认为这不会改变力量的平衡,” 他说。“朝鲜仍然拥有其核威慑力量,并采取这种'豪猪策略'——保持尖锐和多刺,以让其他人保持距离。而在非军事区以南,这也不是一个改变游戏规则的因素,” 这位专家补充道。

"I do not think this changes the balance of power," he said. "The North still has its nuclear deterrent and this 'porcupine strategy' of being sharp and prickly in order to keep everyone else at arm's length. And it's not a game changer south of the Demilitarized Zone either," the expert added.

“然而,很明显,如果朝鲜继续发展其进攻系统,并且能够大规模部署它们,那么不仅在韩国,而且在日本也必须就加强导弹防御展开讨论,这将引发一些非常棘手的问题。”

"It is clear, however, that if the North continues to develop its offensive systems and is able to deploy them in huge numbers, then there will have to be a conversation about greater missile defense not only in the South but also in Japan, and that will then raise some very difficult questions."