
美国零售额在9月增长超出预期,主要受汽油价格上涨提振,但其他方面的支出表现平稳,这可能会削弱经济学家对消费者支出再度实现强劲增长的预期。
US retail sales increased more than expected in September, boosted by higher gasoline prices, but spending elsewhere was moderate, which could temper economists' expectations for another quarter of robust consumer spending growth.
商务部人口普查局周四表示,零售额上月增长0.8%,此前8月经上调后增长1.3%。路透社调查的经济学家曾预测,未计入通胀因素的零售额(主要为商品)将增长0.3%。
Retail sales rose 0.8% last month after an upwardly revised 1.3% jump in August, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.3%.
预测区间从持平到增长0.7%不等。人口普查局上月对零售额估算进行了修正,以纳入历史修正数据并加入新获取的调查数据。
Estimates ranged from being unchanged to an increase of 0.7%. The Census Bureau last month revised its retail sales estimates to account for historical corrections and incorporate newly available survey data.
在修正之前,8月零售额被估计增长1.2%,随后被削减至1.1%的增幅。
Prior to the revisions, August retail sales were estimated to have increased 1.2% before being trimmed to a 1.1% gain.
汽油价格上涨是上月零售额增长的主要原因。美国能源信息署的数据显示,9月汽油价格飙升7.1%,推动该月通胀上行。
Rising gasoline prices accounted for most of the increase in retail sales last month. Gasoline prices soared 7.1% in September, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed, driving inflation higher during that month.
美国与以色列在伊朗问题上的战争导致的油价冲击正给消费者,尤其是经济学家所谓“K型经济”中下层的消费者,带来压力。
The oil price shock from the US-Israeli war with Iran is putting a strain on consumers, especially those in the lower part of what economists call a K-shaped economy.
经通胀调整后的工资在9月再次下降。尽管消费者仍在继续消费,但高收入家庭在支出中承担了主要负担,部分原因是股市上涨带来的收益。
Inflation-adjusted wages fell again in September. Though consumers have continued to spend, higher-income households are doing the heavy lifting, partly thanks to stock market gains.
美联储周三发布的《褐皮书》报告称,大多数地区在8月底至10月初期间“报告整体消费者支出几乎没有变化”。报告指出,即使在达拉斯等企业报告零售销售表现稳健的地区,也有“一些关于低收入客户在支出上更为谨慎的反馈”。
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday said most districts had "reported little or no change in overall consumer spending" between late August and early October. It noted that even in districts like Dallas, where firms reported solid retail sales, there were "some reports of lower-income customers being more cautious with spending."
本周,美国银行研究所报告称,“先买后付”(BNPL)的使用有所增加。尽管该研究所表示这一趋势尚未“过于令人担忧”,但补充说,“使用BNPL的每五户家庭中,就有一户需要偿还超过500美元”。美国人口普查局表示,在剔除汽车、汽油、建筑材料和餐饮服务后,上月零售销售微增0.1%,而8月份曾大幅上涨1.2%。
Bank of America Institute reported this week an increase in the usage of buy now, pay later. While it said the pace was not "overly concerning," it added that "nearly one in every five households that use BNPL has a repayment of over $500." Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services edged up 0.1% last month after surging 1.2% in August, the Census Bureau said.
经济学家此前预测,这些与国内生产总值中消费者支出部分最密切相关的所谓核心零售销售将增长0.3%。
Economists had forecast these so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, gaining 0.3%.
经济学家预计,在4月至6月季度增长3.8%之后,第三季度消费者支出将以年化约3.4%的速度增长。
Economists expect that consumer spending grew at around a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter after rising at a 3.8% pace in the April-June quarter.
7月至9月季度的增长预期约为3.0%。第二季度经济以2.2%的速度增长。
Growth estimates for the July-September quarter are around a 3.0% rate. The economy grew at a 2.2% pace in the second quarter.