华尔街资深人士杰夫·柯里表示，全球最重要的原油基准如今几乎只是一个“情绪合约”，这削弱了它作为管理价格波动工具的实用性。
The world’s most important oil benchmark has become little more than a “vibe contract,” blunting its usefulness as a tool to manage price volatility, according to Wall Street veteran Jeff Currie.
“能源相关的一切都在上涨，只有布伦特原油例外，”柯里周四在接受彭博电视台采访时说，“它已经与现实世界脱节了。”柯里是投资公司Real Macro的创始人兼首席执行官，他指出，布伦特原油每桶约106美元的交易价格掩盖了从霍尔木兹海峡到黑海的供应威胁规模。这些威胁最近有所升级，霍尔木兹海峡周边油轮袭击事件增多，胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击也在加剧。与此同时，货运市场也随原油价格一起上涨。
“Everything associated with energy is going up but Brent,” Currie said Thursday in an interview on Bloomberg Television “It is not connected to the real world anymore.”Brent’s roughly $106-a-barrel trade belies the scale of supply threats spanning the Strait of Hormuz to the Black Sea, according to Currie, founder and chief executive officer of investment firm Real Macro. Threats have escalated recently, with tanker attacks mounting around Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia intensifying. Freight markets have surged alongside crude.
随着全球背景恶化，布伦特原油与实物市场的脱节正在制造“无法定价的风险”，柯里说，这正在劝退对冲者在最需要保护的时候使用该合约来保护自己。
As the global backdrop deteriorates, Brent’s disconnect from physical markets is creating “unpriceable risk,” Currie said, deterring hedgers from using the contract to protect themselves at a juncture when they need it most.
“这些期货市场对现代社会中工业的运作至关重要，”柯里说，“你拿走这个定价机制，就得不到足够的投资，也得不到足够的行为改变。”纸面市场与实物市场之间的脱节自中东冲突爆发以来一直令交易员感到沮丧——尽管当时存在历史性的供应短缺，但原油价格仍难以突破每桶100美元大关。相比之下，最重要的实物油基准——日期布伦特（Dated Brent）——已升至接近每桶130美元。
“Those futures markets are absolutely critical to the function of an industry in modern society,” Currie saidYou take away that pricing, you don’t get adequate investment, you don’t get adequate behavioral changes.”The disconnect between paper and physical markets has frustrated traders since the Middle East conflict began, when crude struggled to top $100 despite historic supply shortages. In contrast, Dated Brent, the most important physical oil benchmark, has surged to near $130 a barrel.
这种不一致导致交易员纷纷离场，今月初布伦特原油的未平仓合约量甚至降至2025年3月以来的最低水平，尽管原油仍主导着新闻头条。
That dissonance has contributed to traders fleeing the market, with Brent open interest earlier this month hitting its lowest since March 2025 even as oil dominates headlines.
期货价格与现货价格之间的差距早在战争爆发前就已存在，因为这两个市场是在时间点不同的情况下对原油进行定价。冲突的发生使这种分歧变得更加明显。
A gap between futures and spot prices predates the war, as the two markets price crude at different points in time. The conflict has made that divergence more pronounced.
科里部分归因于布伦特原油的合约结构，该结构允许交易者以现金结算而非交割实物桶，而其美国对手西德克萨斯中质原油则要求实物交割。
Currie attributes this partly to Brent’s contract structure, which allows traders to settle in cash rather than exchange physical barrels, unlike its US counterpart, West Texas Intermediate, which requires physical delivery.
科里表示，对布伦特原油诚信的打击削弱了市场预测供应冲击的能力，这对市场和世界其他地区将产生“深远影响”。他还淡化了特朗普政府近期遏制燃油价格的努力 — — 包括与俄罗斯达成协议，向全球市场释放数百万桶柴油 — — 并认为在11月3日中期选举之前，风险“仅限于上行”。“市场诚信是神圣不可侵犯的，”科里说。“你不能动摇它。”
A hit to Brent’s integrity undermines the market’s ability to anticipate supply shocks with “profound consequences for the market and the rest of the world,” Currie said. He also downplayed the Trump administration’s recent efforts to rein in fuel prices — including a deal with Russia to release several million barrels of diesel onto global markets — and sees risks as “strictly to the upside” ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. “Market integrity is sacrosanct,” Currie said. “You don’t mess with it.”