在MS NOW“选民档案”系列的第三期中，我们来到西得梅因，听取两组不情愿的特朗普选民的意见——一组来自该市郊区，另一组来自小城镇和农村地区。他们大多数在过去的选举中都采取过分裂投票。
For the third installment of MS NOW’s “The Voter Files,” we went to West Des Moines to hear from two groups of reluctant Trump voters — one group from the city’s suburbs and another from small towns and rural areas. Most have split their tickets in past elections.
在我们迄今访问的三个州中，爱荷华州为民主党提供了最清晰、最充满希望的图景。在缅因州，共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯作为长期任职的机构的地位，可能帮助她抵挡住民主党的势头。在密歇根州，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔塞耶德与本党一些传统选民群体的困难，使得竞选势均力敌。
Of the three states we’ve visited so far, Iowa offers Democrats the clearest and most hopeful picture. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins’ standing as a long-tenured institution may help her withstand Democratic momentum. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s struggles with some of his party’s traditional constituencies have kept the race tight.
但在爱荷华州，民主党人将全国对特朗普自私自利的不信任，指向了共和党参议员候选人阿什利·希森，引发了关于她进入国会以来财富如何增长的疑问。由此产生的愤世嫉俗情绪，可能让民主党人乔什·图雷克拥有足够的优势获胜：足够的交叉投票和足够的共和党投票率下降。特朗普评价低2026年10月9日，伊莱斯·乔丹主持一场爱荷华州特朗普选民的焦点小组讨论。
But in Iowa, Democrats have taken the national distrust of Trump’s self-dealing and pointed it at Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, raising questions about how her wealth has grown since she entered Congress. The resulting cynicism may give Democrat Josh Turek enough of an edge to win: enough crossover votes and enough depressed Republican turnout. Low marks for Trump Elise Jordan moderates a focus group of Iowan Trump voters on October 9, 2026.
全国民调显示，总统唐纳德·特朗普的第二个任期支持率处于最低水平，我们在爱荷华州遇到的人也不更宽容。他们都表示，对2024年投票给他毫无热情。要求他们用1到10分的评分标准对他的第二个任期进行评分，没有人超过6分，大多数人给了他4分或5分，最低评分是2分。
National polls show President Donald Trump at the lowest approval of his second term , and the Iowans we met were no more generous. All of them said they were unenthusiastic about voting for him in 2024. Asked to rate his second term on a scale of one to 10, none went higher than a six, most gave him a four or a five, and the lowest assessment was a two.
“5分都几乎太慷慨了，”独立选民黛安说。“他有很大的改进空间。”
“Five is almost too generous,” said Diane, an independent. “He has a lot of room for improvement.”
一位参与者称他为“失控”。另一位形容他的第二个任期是“一次私人会面，就像他的游乐场。”
One participant called him “unhinged.”Another described his second term as “a personal session, like his playground.”
对这些选民来说，承诺兑现最明显的证据是生活成本。过去一年，消费者价格上涨了3.7%。
For these voters, the clearest evidence of broken promises is the cost of living. Consumer prices are up 3.7% over the past year.
“我们的价格本该下降。生活成本本该变得更容易，”共和党选民珍妮拉说。“至今还没看到。”
“Our prices were going to come down. Cost of living was going to get easier,” said Janella, a Republican. “Still haven’t seen it.”
特朗普决定对伊朗开战。在全国民调中，只有大约34%的美国人认为特朗普开战的决定是正确的。他曾承诺不发动新战争，2025年1月就职时，美国并未处于战争状态。如今，选民们不仅看到乌克兰和加沙的持续冲突，还看到特朗普发动的对伊朗的新战争。
Then there’s Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. In national polling, only roughly 34% of Americans say Trump’s decision to go to war was the right one. He promised no new wars, and when he took office in January 2025, the United States wasn’t at war. Now, voters see not only continuing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, but a new war with Iran that Trump launched.
“看起来我们现在的战争比以往任何时候都多，”独立人士蒂姆说。
“It seems like we’re in more wars than ever before,” said Tim, an independent.
另一位独立人士杰克将避免战争的承诺被打破与上涨的成本联系起来。
Jack, another independent, tied the broken promise to avoid war to rising costs.
“我觉得我们在加油站、杂货店等地方为此付出了代价，”他说。过去一年汽油价格上涨了34%，杂货价格上涨了大约2.5%。他们还会再投一次伊丽丝·乔丹于2026年10月9日主持一场爱荷华州特朗普选民的焦点小组讨论。
“I think we’re paying for that at the gas pump, grocery store, etc.,” he said. Gas prices have jumped 34% over the past year, and groceries prices are up around 2.5%. They’d do it again Elise Jordan moderates a focus group of Iowan Trump voters on October 9, 2026.
这些选民在特朗普第二个任期开始时就心知肚明。有些人担心重蹈他第一个任期的戏剧性覆辙，但还是投了他一票。
These voters went into Trump’s second term with their eyes open. Some dreaded a return to the drama of his first term and voted for him anyway.
“我真的想跟他带来的所有戏剧性打交道吗？”独立人士克里斯蒂回忆起自己2024年的决定时说。“但除此之外，我还有什么选择呢？”
“Do I really want to deal with all the drama that comes with him?” said Kristi, an independent, recalling her decision in 2024. “But then, what was my other choice?”
“他变得更糟了，”珍妮拉说，形容一位已经放弃任何与本党合作的假装，更不用说与民主党合作的总统。
“He’s gotten worse,” Janella said, describing a president who has dropped any pretense of working with his own party, let alone with Democrats.
然而，尽管有诸多顾虑，当被问及是否会改变2024年的投票时，除一人外，所有人都同意他们会再次投票支持特朗普，而不是卡玛拉·哈里斯。“没有其他选择，”右倾独立人士迪尔克举手说。
Yet for all their misgivings, when asked whether they would change their 2024 votes, all but one agreed they would vote for him again over Kamala Harris. “There were no other options,” said Dirk, a right-leaning independent, raising his hand.
正是这种情绪——他们会再次选择特朗普——有助于解释为什么特朗普下降的支持率没有转化为某些摇摆州民主党的决定性领先。
It’s this sentiment — that they would choose Trump again — that helps explain why Trump’s sagging approval hasn’t translated into decisive Democratic leads in some battleground states.
两年后，当这些选权衡参议院和众议院选举时，驱动他们的更多不是特朗普本人，而是对政治的更广泛不信任。独立人士凯特对特朗普的总统任期给出了最宽容的看法。
Two years later, what drives these voters as they weigh their Senate and House options is less Trump himself than a broader distrust of politics. Kate, an independent, offered the most charitable view of Trump’s presidency.
“至少他正在尝试，”她说。“至少他正在某个地方按下某个按钮。”
“At least he is trying,” she said. “At least he is pushing a button somewhere.”
理论上，这对反对党来说是个低门槛。但这些选民并未看到民主党有什么有说服力的替代方案，也没有任何能让他们相信该党会做得更好的愿景。没有民主党的家？
In theory, that’s a low bar for the opposition to clear. But these voters don’t see a compelling alternative from Democrats, or any vision that convinces them the party would do better. No home with Democrats?
2026年10月9日，伊丽丝·乔丹主持一场爱荷华州选民的焦点小组讨论。
Elise Jordan moderates a focus group of Iowan voters on October 9, 2026.
“现在，我们被困在一个不敢得罪特朗普的共和党，以及一个除了想方设法追究特朗普之外什么都不做的民主党中，”迪尔克说。“归根结底，我们都被耍了。”
“Right now, we’re stuck with a Republican Party that will do nothing to offend Trump, and a Democratic Party that will do nothing except try to go after Trump, any way, shape, or form,” Dirk said. “So in the end, we all get screwed.”
爱荷华州选民表达了我们在缅因州和密歇根州听到的类似声音：民主党似乎漂泊无依，只顾着盯着特朗普，缺乏具体政策。最让人疏远的是，他们觉得民主党看不起他们投票给特朗普这件事。
The Iowans echoed what we heard from similar voters in Maine and Michigan: Democrats seem unmoored, fixated on Trump and short on concrete policy. Most alienating of all is their sense that Democrats look down on them for voting for Trump.
“我觉得他们都觉得我们像种族主义者，”钱德勒说。“就像他们总觉得我们反对一切。只是他们想强加给我们的议程。”
“I feel like they all think that we’re like racist,” Chandler said. “It’s like they always think that we’re all against everything. It’s just their agenda that they try to push on us.”
有些人说，这些关于他们动机的假设忽视了塑造他们投票选择的真实情况和需求。
Some said those assumptions about their motives ignore the real circumstances and needs that shaped their votes.
“就我个人而言，我的投票是受到特朗普可能对经济做出的改变所激励，”安妮说。珍妮拉认为，民主党没有关注他们的实际生活。
“Personally, my vote was motivated by potential changes that Trump could make to the economy,” Anne said. Democrats, Janella argued, were not paying attention to their lived reality.
“他们需要停止内部所有的争吵和争执，真正诚恳地审视一下美国人民正在面对什么，”珍妮拉说。“我们说的是我们的生计，每个政客都忘了这一点。”他们会跳过参议院选举吗？
“They need to stop all the fighting and bickering amongst themselves, and really genuinely take a good look at what the American people are dealing with,” Janella said. “This is our livelihood we’re talking about, and every single politician has forgotten about that.”
2026年10月9日，伊丽丝·乔丹主持一场爱荷华州选民的焦点小组讨论。
Will they skip the Senate race? Elise Jordan moderates a focus group of Iowan voters on October 9, 2026.
对共和党感到失望、对民主党不信服，我们遇到的一些爱荷华州选民正在权衡的不是在参议院选举中支持谁，而是是否要参与投票。
Disenchanted with Republicans and unconvinced by Democrats, some of the Iowans we met are weighing not who to support in the Senate race , but whether to vote in it at all.
两个群体分歧明显。在10名农村和小城镇选民中，有六人倾向于欣森，四人考虑投给图雷克。10名郊区选民中，没有一人考虑欣森；七人表示将在参议院选举中弃权，另外三人考虑投给图雷克。
The two groups split sharply. Of the 10 rural and small-town voters, six are leaning toward Hinson and four are considering Turek. None of the 10 suburban voters is considering Hinson; seven said they would leave the Senate race blank, and the other three are considering Turek.
焦点小组不是民调，20名选民无法预测全州选举。但如果2024年的选民再次投票，且这种模式在爱荷华州的郊区和小城镇中成立，图雷克可能处于有利获胜的位置。他不需要大规模争取特朗普选民，只需说服一些人跨党投票，并让更多人放弃投票。
Focus groups aren’t polls, and 20 voters can’t predict a statewide race. But if the 2024 electorate turns out again and that pattern holds in suburbs and small towns across Iowa, Turek could be well positioned to win. He wouldn’t need to convert Trump voters wholesale, just persuade some to cross over and many others to skip the race.
对欣森来说，危险不在于这些选民接受了民主党，而在于他们已经放弃。
For Hinson, the danger isn’t that these voters have embraced Democrats. It’s that they’ve given up.
“你最终会对所有人失去所有信心，因为什么事都办不成，你会失去信任，变得愤世嫉俗，”杰克说。
“You just lose all faith in everybody eventually because nothing gets done, and you lose trust and become cynical,” Jack said.
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