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莫迪的困境:Z世代涌上印度街头,异议情绪高涨Modi's predicament: Gen Z pours out on India's streets as dissent surges

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尽管有数万名安全部队被部署以阻止他们,印度的青年抗议者上周仍翻越路障,高喊反政府口号,并与试图将他们拖走的警察发生冲突。“革命万岁!”一名青年在被警察塞进巴士之前高喊。

Despite tens of thousands of security personnel deployed to stop them, youth protesters in India scaled barricades last week, chanted anti-government slogans and scuffled with police officers trying to drag them away. "Long live the revolution," shouted one young man before police bundled him into a bus.

独立的武装冲突地点和事件数据(ACLED)项目表示,今年印度的街头抗议活动可能超过过去十年任何时候的规模,因为对总理纳伦德拉·莫迪政府的不满情绪日益升级,Z世代活动人士纷纷走上街头。

Street protests in India this year are likely to be higher than at any time in the past decade, the independent Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project has said, as dissent mounts against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government and Gen Z activists pour on to the streets.

分析人士表示,青年抗议活动以及对反对派日益增长的支持,构成了莫迪自2014年上台以来面临的最严峻危机。30岁以下的人群占该国10亿选民的近四分之一。但他的政府仍然保持稳定,下次全国大选要到2029年才会举行。

Analysts say the youth protests, and growing support for the opposition, form the worst crisis for Modi since he came to power in 2014, with people under 30 making up nearly one quarter of the country's 1 billion voters. But his government remains stable and the next general election is not due until 2029.

“这个国家突然找到了自己的声音,”反政府活动人士、示威活动的主要参与者之一Yogendra Yadav说。“我不敢说这是莫迪政权终结的开始,但这肯定是下滑螺旋的开始。”政府和莫迪所属的印度人民党(BJP)对此事拒绝置评。

"The nation has suddenly found its voice," said Yogendra Yadav, an anti-government activist who has played a leading part in the demonstrations. "I would not say this is the beginning of the end of the Modi regime, but this definitely is the beginning of a downward spiral". The government and Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party declined comment for this story.

最近在首都德里及其他地区的抗议活动集中在要求选举委员会主席Gyanesh Kumar辞职,因为活动人士和反对党指责其选民名单修订有利于BJP,并帮助该党赢得了几场最近的州级选举。

The recent protests in the capital Delhi and elsewhere were focused on demands that Election Commission chief Gyanesh Kumar resign over a voter roll revision that activists and opposition parties say favours the BJP and has helped it win several recent state elections.

执政党BJP、政府和选举委员会否认这些指控。BJP表示,该党的胜利得益于莫迪的个人魅力和强劲的经济增长。

The ruling BJP, the government and the Election Commission deny the accusations. The BJP says the party's wins have come from Modi's popularity and strong economic growth.

但这些示威也反映出更深层次的问题:尽管头条经济数据增长强劲,但莫迪在执政的12年里未能为数百万失业青年提供工作岗位,导致公众愤怒日益加剧。

But the demonstrations are also reflecting something larger: growing anger at Modi for failing to deliver jobs to millions of unemployed youth in his 12 years in power despite the surge in headline economic growth.

其他问题也助长了反建制情绪,包括关键考试试题泄露、针对女性的犯罪案件数量居高不下,以及据称与莫迪关系密切的亿万富翁商人数量增加。

Other issues have also fed into the anti-establishment mood, including leaks of question papers in key examinations for jobs and education, the high number of crimes against women and the rise of billionaire businessmen alleged to have close links to Modi.

莫迪塑造了强人形象,其政府过去曾严厉镇压零星的异议声音,但这并未让街头的年轻人感到畏惧。

Modi has a strongman image and his government has previously cracked down on pockets of dissent harshly, but that hasn't fazed the youngsters on the streets.

“我们心中的恐惧已经消失,”21岁的德里大学学生阿纳尼亚·拉图里说,她曾参加周六在首都举行的大规模抗议活动。

"The fear in us is gone," said Ananya Raturi, a 21-year-old Delhi University student who was part of massive protests in the capital on Saturday.

拉图里在紧贴警方用于拘留抗议者的公交车挡风玻璃雨刷器后说道:“我们不怕被警察拘留或殴打。这一代人反而享受这种感觉。”警方否认在示威中殴打人员的指控,称抗议者是按照规定程序处理的。

Speaking after she clung to the windscreen wipers of a bus that police were using to detain protesters, Raturi said: "We don't fear being detained or beaten up by the police. This generation enjoys it." Police have denied allegations that they beat up people at the demonstrations, saying protesters were handled according to prescribed procedures.

抗议活动之所以升温,是因为莫迪时代首次出现具有全国影响力的青年领导运动——蟑螂人民党。该组织起初是网络讽刺,今年6月在印度首席大法官将失业者比作“蟑螂”之后,发展成为全国性运动。

The protests have been energised by the emergence of the first nationally resonant youth-led movement of the Modi era, the Cockroach Janta Party, which grew from online satire into a nationwide campaign this June after India's chief justice likened the unemployed to "cockroaches".

印度主流媒体大多亲政府,批评人士称其对抗议的报道甚少。但数千名抗议者手持手机,加上YouTube上的独立新闻频道,放大了动荡,并使像蟑螂人民党创始人阿比吉特·迪普克和火热的左翼活动家尼哈·博拉这样的领袖成为网络红人。

India's mainstream media is mostly pro-government, critics say, and has covered the protests sparingly. But thousands of protesters armed with mobile phones as well as independent news channels on YouTube have amplified the unrest and made Internet stars of leaders like CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke and firebrand left-wing activist Neha Bora.

在莫迪执政期间一度被压制的反对党也重新焕发活力,国大党领袖拉胡尔·甘地及其数万名追随者也走上街头。

Opposition parties that were subdued under Modi's grip on power have been re-energised, with Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi and tens of thousands of followers also on the streets.

动荡局面被与邻国孟加拉国和尼泊尔相比较,在这两国,青年领导的抗议运动近年来曾推翻政府。尽管分析人士警告称,印度的政治格局和莫迪的受欢迎程度使得这种类比并不完全成立。

The unrest has drawn comparisons with neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal, where youth-led protest movements brought down governments in recent years, although analysts caution that India's political landscape and Modi's popularity make such parallels imperfect.

许多青年抗议者是在莫迪上台期间成长起来的,他们曾因就业、机遇和清廉治理的承诺而受到鼓舞。十年后,许多人表示这些愿望仍未实现,他们认为印度教民族主义政府更关注宗教议题以及针对少数群体(尤其是穆斯林)的分裂政治。

Many of the youth protesters grew up during Modi's rise to power, buoyed by promises of jobs, opportunity and cleaner governance. A decade later, many say those aspirations remain unfulfilled and they say the Hindu nationalist government appears more focused on religious issues and divisive politics against minorities, especially Muslims.

政府此前表示,截至2024年的六年间,经济新增了1.683亿个就业岗位。莫迪多次否认存在任何偏见的指控,称其政府致力于服务所有印度人。

The government has previously said the economy generated 168.3 million new jobs in the six years through 2024. Modi has repeatedly rejected allegations of any bias, saying his government works for all Indians.

来自加尔各答的30岁医学生高瑞·塞思在2014年成为选民,恰逢莫迪政府上台那一年。

30-year-old Gauri Seth, a medical student based in Kolkata, became a voter in 2014, the same year the Modi government came to power.

塞思表示,莫迪政府“许诺很多,但未能兑现。”她补充道:“相反,他们把注意力放在宗教基础设施等事务上。少数群体遭遇暴力事件屡见不鲜。任何人只要反对他们,就会被贴上叛国或煽动的标签。”莫迪上台时承诺每年创造数百万个就业岗位。然而,尽管印度此后实现了强劲的经济增长,但根据政府数据,失业率仍略高于5%。

Seth said the Modi government promised "a lot, but has failed to deliver." "Instead they focus on things like religious infrastructure. There are cases of violence against minorities. When anyone speaks against them, it is labelled as treason or sedition." When Modi came to power, he promised the creation of millions of jobs each year. Yet, despite India's strong economic growth since then, unemployment remains at slightly above 5%, according to government data.

去年路透社的一项民调指出,这些数据掩盖了失业问题的严重性,尤其是在青年群体中。根据数据,2025年全国15至29岁的3.67亿人中,失业率达到9.9%。

A Reuters poll last year said that data masks the severity of joblessness, especially among the youth. Unemployment among the 367 million people in the country aged 15-29 stood at 9.9% in 2025, according to the data.

阿济姆·普雷姆吉大学《印度劳动状况2026》报告的研究发现,15至25岁毕业生的失业率接近40%,而25至29岁毕业生中大约有五分之一仍处于失业状态。

Research by Azim Premji University's State of Working India 2026 report found unemployment among graduates aged 15-25 was nearly 40%, while about one in five graduates aged 25-29 remained jobless.

今年5月,政府在试卷泄露后取消了国家医学院考试的资格,这一举动引发了全国范围的骚乱。对于贫困和中产阶级家庭而言,这条通往就业的道路被切断。

In May, unrest erupted across the country when the government invalidated examinations for national medical colleges, a pathway to jobs for the poor and the middle class, after test papers were leaked.

德里的30岁社会活动家鲁比·辛格表示,反复发生的试卷泄露事件加深了年轻印度人的一种感受:即使经过多年学习,系统仍在剥夺他们的机会。

Rubby Singh, a 30-year-old social activist in Delhi, said repeated examination paper leaks had deepened a sense among young Indians that the system was denying them opportunities even after years of study.

“这一代人一直承受着缺乏正规教育的冲击,这导致他们无法获得良好的机会,”她说。

"This generation has been facing the brunt of not having proper education, which leads to not being able to get good opportunities," she said.

虽然全国大选还有近三年才到期,但该国最大的邦——北方邦将在明年早些时候举行选举,这可能成为检验莫迪人气的试金石。然而,分析人士对选举结果仍持谨慎态度。

While national elections are not due for almost three years, the country's biggest state, Uttar Pradesh, goes to the polls early next year, which could provide a test of Modi's popularity. Analysts however remain cautious about the outcome.

新德里政策研究中心的研究员拉胡尔·维尔马表示:“印度人民党可能没有几个月前那么强大了。但至于这是否会带来选举影响,现在下结论还为时过早。”

The BJP may not be as strong as it was a few months ago, said Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. "But whether there are going to be electoral implications, it is too early to say."