非洲储备银行行长莱塞特贾·康亚戈表示，尽管伊朗战争的冲击导致市场动荡，但兰特表现坚挺，反映出人们对该国经济前景的信心有所增强。
African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the rand has held up well despite the shock caused by the Iran war, reflecting more confidence in the country’s economic outlook.
“兰特的韧性起到了缓冲作用，但并未完全使我们免受冲击，”他在周五于曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议期间接受彭博电视采访时表示。“重要的是，货币的波动幅度比过去要小，这是推动因素和拉动因素共同作用的结果。”康亚戈将兰特的表现归因于多种因素，包括去年将通胀目标下调至3%，以及政府为实现财政紧缩所做的努力，这些因素共同导致投资者要求购买该国国债所需的风险溢价下降。
“Rand resilience has cushioned, but not shielded us from the shock,” he told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Friday. “The important thing is that the currency had been less volatile than it had been in the past, and it is a combination of push factors and a combination of pull factors.”Kganyago attributed the rand’s performance to factors including lowering the inflation target last year to 3% and government efforts to pursue fiscal consolidation, which contributed to a decline in the risk premium that investors demand to purchase the country’s bonds.
他还表示，南非关键大宗商品出口（包括金和铂金）价格上涨也有助于抵消燃料成本上升的影响，使贸易条件保持有利。兰特的持续韧性将取决于南非宏观经济政策是否保持正轨。
Higher prices for South Africa’s exports of key commodities including gold and platinum have also helped to offset the impact of higher fuel costs, keeping the terms of trade on a favorable footing, he said. Continued rand resilience will hinge on South African macroeconomic policy remaining on track.
“导致兰特走弱的因素可能是：如果这些有利条件被放弃；如果贸易条件恶化；如果货币政策未能保持方向；如果财政政策未能保持方向，”康亚戈说。
“What could lead to the weakening of the rand would be if those things give up: If the terms of trade deteriorate, if monetary policy does not stay the course, and if fiscal policy does not stay the course,” Kganyago said.
在过去十年过度支出之后，南非在过去几年里一直致力于稳定公共财政，财政状况有所改善。
South Africa has made significant efforts to stabilize public finances in the past few years after a decade of overspending, improving its fiscal position.
预计财政部长埃诺克·戈东瓦纳在下周提交中期预算更新时，政府将报告初级预算盈余持续增长——这一增长主要由收入增加超过非利息支出所推动。
The government is expected to report a growing primary budget surplus — driven by rising revenue exceeding non-interest expenditure — when Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tables his mid-term budget update next week.
上个月，政策制定者一致投票决定将基准利率提高25个基点至7.25%，原因是他们对伊朗和乌克兰战争引发的通胀风险日益担忧。官员们表示，他们正在采取更为紧缩的政策，以防止能源价格居高不下引发第二轮效应，从而使通胀居高不下。
Policymakers voted unanimously last month to raise their benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, after growing wary of inflationary risks stemming from wars in Iran and Ukraine. Officials said they were adopting a more restrictive policy to prevent elevated energy prices from triggering second-round effects that entrench higher inflation.
克尼亚戈重申了这一观点，并强调利率决策将逐次会议作出，他补充道：“环境充满不确定性。我们将继续评估形势。”
Kganyago repeated that line while stressing that rate decisions would be taken meeting-by-meeting, adding that “the environment is uncertain. We will continue to assess the situation.”