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美中全球经济责任之争风向转向北京有利US-China Blame Game Over Global Economy Tilts in Beijing’s Favor

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在上次主要峰会上,斯科特·贝森特努力把中国标记为世界经济危险断裂的根源。随着美国财政部长本周缺席曼谷,焦点转向了美国及其盟友。

At the last major summit, Scott Bessent worked hard to tag China as the cause of dangerous fault lines in the world economy. With the US Treasury chief absent from Bangkok this week, it was America and its allies in the spotlight.

在国际货币基金组织和世界银行在泰国首都举行的会议上,政府和商业领袖最关心的是高昂的借贷成本。借贷成本的上升始于美国和其他发达经济体,该集团指责中国助长了一个损害其他国家的巨额出口盈余。

Steep borrowing costs were top of mind for government and business leaders at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s meetings in the Thai capital. The climb began in the US and other advanced economies, the bloc accusing China of fueling a giant export surplus that’s damaging everyone else.

这一威胁尚未消失,甚至可能还在加剧。北京在会议期间公布了新的贸易数据,显示将出现另一个破纪录的年份。但在东南亚这个拥挤大都市的各个小组讨论和鸡尾酒会上,讨论的焦点转向了债务成本的激增以及围绕美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政策的问题——这一转折强化了中国在全球失衡大辩论中的立场。

That threat hasn’t gone away, and may even be growing. Beijing posted new trade numbers during the meetings that point to another record-busting year. But at the panels and cocktail parties across the congested Southeast Asian metropolis, conversations focused on the surge in debt costs and questions around the policies of US President Donald Trump – a shift that bolsters China’s side of the great global imbalances debate.

“债券收益率,债券收益率,债券收益率,”汇丰控股有限公司首席亚洲经济学家弗雷德里克·诺伊曼这样总结了曼谷的讨论。他说,每个人都想知道的是它们何时何地会开始产生影响:“如果它们继续以这个速度攀升,过去一年的全球增长韧性将很快开始松动。”在二十国集团财长于北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔会面的六周以来,美国、法国和日本的借贷成本已达到数十年来的最高点。尽管在过去一周左右有所回落,但仍远高于世界曾经习惯的水平。

“Bond yields, bond yields, bond yields,” is how Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, summed up the Bangkok chatter. What everyone wants to know, he said, is when and where they’ll start to bite: “If they keep climbing at this pace, the global growth resilience over the past year will quickly start to fray.”In the six weeks since Group of 20 finance chiefs met in Asheville, North Carolina, borrowing costs in the US, France and Japan have hit multi-decade highs. Yields have eased in the past week or so, but remain far above levels the world had gotten used to.

特朗普对伊朗的战争是今年通胀和利率上升的主要驱动力。曼谷的许多参与者,包括国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃,认为巨额预算赤字和债务在助长火焰。她称发达经济体为“罪魁祸首最严重的国家”,并敦促它们改善财政状况。

Trump’s war on Iran has been the main driver of higher inflation and interest rates this year. Many Bangkok participants including IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva argued that large budget deficits and debts fan the flames. She called advanced economies the “worst offenders” and urged them to fix their finances.

那条消息显然是针对美国的,因为美国在阿什维尔率先发起了对中国出口激增的谴责。格奥尔基耶娃暗示,贝森特让美国通过增长摆脱债务和赤字困境的计划可能行不通——这对世界其他地区构成了问题。

That message appeared particularly directed at the US, which in Asheville led the charge to condemn China’s flood of exports. Georgieva suggested Bessent’s plan for America to grow its way out of debt and deficit trouble likely won’t work — posing a problem for the rest of the world.

尽管债券抛售对新兴市场的冲击不如对发达国家那样严重,但它仍然导致这些国家借贷成本上升,并担心富裕国家的传染效应可能进一步恶化。

While the bond rout hasn’t hit emerging markets as badly, it’s still left them paying more to borrow and worrying if the contagion from rich countries could get worse.

“我们呼吁世界所有经济体,尤其是发达经济体,真正审视其影响,”印尼财政部长苏哈西尔·纳扎拉说道,他的国家在周五因摩根士丹利公司(MSCI Inc.)的降级警告而导致股票下跌幅度达到28年来之最。“影响在于当地人、街头的人、乡村里的人,他们将不得不承受更高的借贷成本。”在中美长期围绕全球失衡的争论中,旁观者的观点很重要,因为双方通常都在博取观众的掌声。他们各自指责对方的不当行为正在伤害其他人。

“We do call out to all economies in the world, especially the advanced economies, to really look at the impact,” said Indonesian Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara, whose nation saw its stocks drop Friday by the most in 28 years on a downgrade warning from MSCI Inc. “The impact is to the local people, the people on the street, the people in the villages, that they will have to endure higher borrowing costs.”In the long-running US-China row about global imbalances, the views of onlookers matter because both sides typically play to the gallery. They argue their adversary’s misdeeds are hurting everyone else. China’s stock response to attacks on its trade surplus is to point the finger at structural problems in the US and Europe, particularly profligate budget spending — an old argument, but one that could get new traction in a bond selloff.

潘功胜10月15日在曼谷。Pan Gongsheng in Bangkok on Oct. 15.

中国对针对其贸易顺差的攻击的股市反应是将矛头指向美国和欧洲的结构性问题,特别是挥霍无度的预算支出——这是一个老论点,但在债券抛售背景下可能获得新的共鸣。

In Asheville, Bessent orchestrated what the US portrayed as a 19-1 vote against China.

在阿什维尔,贝森特策划了美国所描述的19比1反对中国的投票。他说,除了北京——明显的目标——之外,所有人都同意“非市场经济体源源不断地输出廉价出口是不可持续的”这一观点。在二十国集团财政负责人于周四在曼谷会晤后,中国人民银行行长潘功胜发表声明称,“一些国家政府债券市场的剧烈波动”正在加剧金融脆弱性。

He said that everyone except Beijing, the obvious target, agreed with the idea that “non-market-based economies pushing out a never-ending stream of cheap exports is not sustainable.”After G20 finance chiefs met in Bangkok on Thursday, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng published a statement saying “sharp swings in some countries’ government bond markets” are adding to financial fragility. In a report published on the eve of the IMF meetings, the PBOC said the US had lost trade competitiveness because of its own failings, including excessive fiscal spending, and shouldn’t pin all the blame on Chinese trade.

在IMF会议前夕发布的一份报告中,中国人民银行表示,美国因自身失误而失去贸易竞争力,包括过度财政支出,不应把所有责任归咎于中国的贸易。

Imbalances “are not caused by surplus countries or deficit countries acting alone,” it wrote.

报告指出:“失衡‘并非仅由盈余国家或赤字国家单方面造成’,‘每个国家都应做好自己的功课’。”曼谷的日本官员试图淡化发达经济体与新兴经济体因收益率影响而产生的紧张感。财务大臣片山萨纪表示,国际机构已警示潜在的溢出风险,但尚未提出具体行动的呼吁。

“Each country should do its homework.”Japanese officials in Bangkok sought to play down any sense of tensions between developed and emerging economies over the impact of yields. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said international institutions had flagged potential spillover risks, but there’d been no call for specific action.

片山萨纪还批评日本《日经》新闻在二十国集团峰会前会议期间报道所谓的中日冲突,她的否认随后在网络上广泛传播。她表示,七国集团财长们在阿什维尔讨论了全球失衡问题,而“中国实际上被点名”了这一问题。

Katayama also scolded Japan’s Nikkei newspaper for reporting an alleged clash with China during a pre-G20 meeting, with her denial going viral. She said finance ministers from the Group of Seven advanced economies discussed global imbalances, an issue on which “China was effectively called out” in Asheville.

二十国集团本周未尝试起草声明,甚至未举行新闻发布会。据一位高级政府官员称,贝森特的缺席使得欧洲或加拿大等盟友在曼谷的存在感变得更为重要,以防止中国填补任何空白。

The G20 didn’t try to draft a statement this week, or even hold a press conference. Bessent’s absence made it more important for allies like Europe or Canada to make their presence felt in Bangkok and prevent China from filling any gap, according to one senior government official.

片山皋月10月15日在曼谷。Satsuki Katayama in Bangkok on Oct. 15.

财政部国际事务副部长埃琳·布朗在曼谷周五的新闻发布会上表示,美国在本周的讨论中继续敦促IMF履行其“应对全球失衡和汇率政策的责任”——这是华盛顿用来指代北京影响的暗语。

Erin Browne, Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, said at a press briefing in Bangkok Friday that the US continues to press the IMF during discussions this week over its “responsibility to address global imbalances and exchange rate policies” — coded language for what Washington sees as Beijing’s impacts.

布朗说:“基金必须在识别这些扭曲方面更具主动性,并应对导致这些扭曲的邻国乞讨政策。”

“The fund must be more assertive in identifying these distortions and addressing the beggar-thy-neighbor policies that contribute to them,” Browne said.

对中国贸易威胁的担忧不仅限于美国、日本等发达经济体,或欧洲——欧洲本周通过限制混合动力汽车出口的协议,从北京获得了罕见的让步。这种担忧在拉美和非洲同样明显。但在这些国家,新债务风险本周成为首要关注点。

Concern about China’s trade threat isn’t confined to developed economies like the US and Japan — or Europe, which this week scored a rare concession from Beijing with a deal to cap exports of hybrid autos. It’s evident in Latin American and Africa too. But in such countries the new debt risks were top of mind this week.

肯尼亚央行行长卡穆·图格在接受采访时表示,他看到该国美元债券收益率在三周内上升了约100个基点。

Kenya’s central bank governor Kamau Thugge said in an interview that he’d watched his country’s dollar-bond yields rise by about 100 basis points over three weeks.

该非洲国家计划筹集54亿美元,而三周前“我们曾表示市场已准备好接受我们的发行”,他说。“但情况变化得如此之快。”他补充说,主要风险来自中东战争,并指出“油价可能涨至130美元。谁知道呢?”在非洲其他地区,收益率上升威胁到几个“不具备冲击承受能力”的国家,据标准银行集团(非洲资产规模最大的贷款机构)商业与投资银行部门负责人卢武约·马辛达表示。他列举了几个国家,这些国家要么“濒临违约边缘”,要么可能陷入违约。

The African nation plans to raise $5.4 billion, and three weeks ago “we’d have said that the market is ready for us to go,” he said. “But the conditions are changing so fast.”The main risk is coming from war in the Middle East, he said, adding that “oil prices can go to $130. Who knows?”Elsewhere in Africa, the rise in yields threatens several countries that “don’t really have capacity for shocks,” according to Luvuyo Masinda, head of commercial and investment banking at Standard Bank Group, Africa’s biggest lender by assets. He listed several nations that are either “teetering” on the brink of default or could find themselves there.

随着政府评估预算风险,曼谷本周会议上的许多银行家们担心收益率上升将对资产负债表产生什么影响。摩根大通公司和德意志银行AG是几家在泰国首都设立办事处并在此地最豪华的酒店举办招待会的大型金融机构之一。海湾国际银行在四季酒店的代表团拥有至少六辆宝马汽车的车队。

As governments weighed up the risk to their budgets, many bankers in Bangkok for this week’s meetings were worrying about what higher yields will do to balance sheets. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG were among several big financial institutions to set up shop in the Thai capital and host receptions at its fanciest hotels. Gulf International Bank’s delegation at the Four Seasons had its own fleet of at least six BMWs.

“主权风险几乎在每一次对话中被提及,”摩根大通EMEA业务部门副董事长安德烈亚斯·林德表示。“几个主要国家主权债务高企、预算赤字巨大、政府债券收益率飙升,且财政紧缩没有明确迹象的组合令人担忧。”国际货币基金组织本周多次也表达了类似担忧。

“Sovereign risk was raised in almost every conversation,” said Andreas Lindh, a vice chairman at JPMorgan’s EMEA unit. “The combination of high sovereign indebtedness, large budget deficits, surging government bond yields and no clear signs of fiscal consolidation in several major countries is cause for concern.”The IMF itself has been striking a similar note on several occasions this week.

克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃10月13日在曼谷。Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok on Oct. 13.

在周三新闻发布会上被直接问及全球失衡的根源和解决之道时,基金总裁格奥尔基耶娃求助于一个中性表述。“中国需要多花钱,美国需要多储蓄,欧洲需要多投资,”她说。

Asked directly about the roots and cures of global imbalances at her Wednesday press conference, fund chief Georgieva took refuge in a neutral formula. “China needs to spend more, the US has to save more, and Europe has to invest more,” she said.

不过在上周的开幕致辞中,格奥尔基耶娃将债务规模上升及借贷成本增加列为她希望在曼谷会议上得到解决的三大难题之一。人工智能与能源危机也位列其中,但贸易失衡问题却未被提及。周二,国际货币基金组织发布的金融稳定报告也指出,收益率飙升已成为当前最大的风险因素。

But in her curtain-raising speech last week, Georgieva cited rising debt and borrowing costs as one of the three big challenges she wanted to see addressed in Bangkok. AI and the energy crunch made the list too, but trade imbalances did not. And on Tuesday the IMF’s financial stability report said the yield surge has emerged as the biggest risk.

这一情况也反映了本周多场会议上与会者的普遍心态。一位驻伦敦的新兴市场基金经理表示,投资者们很难专心听会,因为他们必须不断查看手机以了解债券收益率的最新动态。

That chimes with the audience mood at many of this week’s events. One London-based manager of an emerging-market fund said it’s been hard for people to concentrate during investor presentations because they have to keep checking their phones to see what bond yields are up to.

对于法国财政部长罗兰·莱斯库尔而言,这种情况倒并非坏事。法国的借贷成本已升至欧元区债务危机以来的最高水平。他在周五接受彭博电视采访时指出,不断走高的收益率正促使各方意识到实施财政审慎政策的必要性。

To French Finance Minister Roland Lescure, whose nation has seen borrowing costs soar to levels unseen since the euro-area debt crisis, that’s not a bad thing. The higher yields are forcing everyone to see the need for fiscal prudence, he told Bloomberg Television on Friday. “At the end of the day, the bond market is doing its job,” he said.

“归根结底,债券市场正在履行其职责,”他说道,“市场‘守望者’们正保持高度警惕,我们也必须认清这一点,并切实履行自身责任。”

“The vigilantes are being very vigilant, and we have to get it — and we have to make sure we do our part of the job.”

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