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时间与影响力双双告急,马克龙为保持存在感而苦战Short of Time and Influence, Macron Fights to Remain Relevant

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埃马纽埃尔·马克龙 摄影师:阿尔贝托·皮佐利/法新社/盖蒂图片社Emmanuel Macron Photographer: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images

马克龙仍有许多想法,但在其总统任期的最后阶段,他已经失去了将这些想法变为现实的很大一部分权力。

Macron still has plenty of ideas, but in the home stretch of his presidency he’s lost much of the power to turn them into reality.

随着法国总统从他最后一次欧盟峰会之一返回一个动荡不安的国家,他在人工智能防护栏、气候变化和国际秩序动摇等问题上的宣言如今影响力有限,他所属政党的人士表示。

As the French president returned from one of his last European Union summits to a nation racked by unrest, his proclamations on issues such as artificial-intelligence guardrails, climate change and the faltering international order are influencing few these days, people from his party say.

他雄心与成果之间的差距在布鲁塞尔暴露无遗。据熟悉交流情况的人士透露,马克龙正在闭门会议中敦促其他领导人锁定欧盟自2028年起的七年预算。该预算将使欧盟进入法国2032年的选举周期,届时他仍将只有54岁,理论上至少有资格再次参选——但法律明确禁止他明年这样做。

The gap between his ambitions and results was on full display in Brussels, where Macron was urging other leaders behind closed doors to lock in the EU’s seven-year budget starting in 2028, according to a person familiar with the exchanges. That would carry the bloc into France’s 2032 election cycle, when he will still be just 54 and, in theory at least, eligible to run again — which he is legally barred from doing next year.

马克龙在峰会后对记者表示:“到今年年底通过欧盟预算是可能的,这就是欧盟理事会轮值主席国设定的目标。‘我们在未来几周还有充足的时间。这是我一直在重申的民主常识问题。’”他推动预算的意义在前一天就已凸显——当时,有望接替他的极右翼领袖玛丽娜·勒庞誓言要削减法国对欧盟的缴纳额,这可能导致欧盟陷入瘫痪。马克龙的呼吁至今仍未打破布鲁塞尔的僵局,因为领导人在欧盟支出问题上存在根本性分歧。

Adopting an EU budget “is possible by the end of the year, that’s the goal the council presidency has set,” Macron told reporters after the summit. “We have plenty of time in the coming weeks. This is a matter of democratic common sense that I’m reiterating.”The significance of his budget push was made clear the previous day, when the far-right frontrunner to succeed him, Marine Le Pen, vowed to slash her country’s contribution to the EU, potentially paralyzing the bloc. Macron’s appeal has so far failed to break the impasse in Brussels where leaders have radically different views on EU spending.

“埃马纽埃尔·马克龙正接近其政治周期的尾声,甚至正在耗尽动力,”巴黎咨询顾问、ESCP商学院讲师伊夫·贝尔托尼尼说道。虽然他能够展现强硬姿态,“但这正在削弱他在欧洲层面的可信度。”知情人士(要求匿名,讨论马克龙任期最后几个月)表示,即便转向对华更强硬的贸易政策,如果欧盟行动不够快,也可能未能达到法国原本的目标。

“Emmanuel Macron is nearing the end of his political cycle, and is even running out of steam,” said Yves Bertoncini, a Paris-based consultant in European affairs who teaches at ESCP business school. Though he can project toughness, “that is undermining his credibility at the European level.”Even the pivot to tougher trade policy on China risks falling short of what the French were aiming for if the EU doesn’t act faster, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing Macron’s last few months in power.

在布鲁塞尔,马克龙可以声称自己拥有一定的主动性:领导人同意对减少欧盟与中国的贸易逆差提出新的推动力。此举是在法国和德国签署一份联合文件之后达成的,该文件呼吁欧盟更大程度地使用其贸易工具。欧盟也已就限制中国汽车进口达成共识。

In Brussels, Macron could claim some agency: Leaders agreed on a new push to cut the bloc’s trade deficit with China. This came after France and Germany signed a joint paper urging the EU to make greater use of its trade instruments. An EU consensus has also emerged to limit Chinese car imports.

法国官员欢迎欧盟委员会的计划,即在年底前提出建议,其中包括一项可能将中国排除在欧洲市场之外的工具——他们将其描述为一种“威慑”形式。但时间紧迫。一位法国官员警告称,任何延迟都可能落入北京之手,而且许多政府仍然担心危及他们与世界第二大经济体的经济联系。

French officials welcomed the European Commission’s plan to put forward proposals by the end of the year, including a tool that could shut China out of the European market — a measure they have described as a form of “deterrence.”But the clock is ticking. Any delay could play into Beijing’s hands, one French official cautioned, and many governments are still wary of jeopardizing their economic ties with the world’s second-biggest economy.

这位法国官员以2010年代的太阳能板行业为例,作为警示故事。他们表示,欧盟对更便宜的中国产品涌入市场的反应太慢,导致欧洲制造商的衰落。

The French official pointed to the solar-panel industry in the 2010s as a cautionary tale. The EU, they said, took too long to respond to cheaper Chinese products flooding the market, contributing to the demise of European manufacturers.

周五,马克龙还与德国总理弗里德里希·默茨达成了一项协议,旨在保护两国陷入困境的汽车工业。该协议是在牺牲欧盟最具象征意义的绿色野心之一的前提下达成的,这与马克龙此前承诺的“让地球再次伟大”形成鲜明对比:两位领导人同意大幅削弱旨在限制汽车排放的规则。

Macron also struck a deal with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Friday aimed at protecting the two countries’ struggling car industries. The accord came at the expense of one of the EU’s most symbolic green ambitions — and stands in contrast with Macron’s earlier pledge to “Make The Planet Great Again”: The two leaders agreed to significantly water down rules designed to curb car emissions.

10月6日,巴黎,高中生发起的全国行动日期间举行的示威活动。Demonstrations during a nationwide day of action called by high-school students, in Paris, on Oct. 6.

作为交换,法国在汽车领域获得了“欧洲制造”的优惠待遇,尽管未能为其他行业赢得类似的让步。

In exchange, France secured a “made in Europe” preference for the auto sector, though it failed to win similar concessions for other industries.

马克龙办公室的一位官员表示,法国的目标现在是将有利于欧洲生产的规则扩展到经济的其他部分。

An official in Macron’s office said France’s goal is now to extend rules favoring European production to other parts of the economy.

这也不是一揽子已成事实的协议:对欧盟汽车排放规则的修改以及“欧洲制造”的优惠待遇仍需得到成员国和欧洲议会的同意。

It’s not a done deal, either: Changes to EU car-emissions rules and made-in-Europe preferences still require agreement among member states and the European Parliament.

“总统一直在努力工作,并将一直活跃到最后一刻来捍卫他的理念,”马克龙办公室的一位发言人说。

“The president is hard at work and will remain active until the very last minute to defend his ideas,” a spokesman for Macron’s office said.

这种决心在上个月的联合国大会上展现得淋漓尽致:他像一位政坛老手般与与会者互动——握手、切换至英语发言、拥抱外国领导人,还邀请银行家和经济学家共进早餐。不过如今,他愈发显得像一位“未到年纪”的资深政治家。

That determination was on display at the United Nations General Assembly last month where he worked the crowd like a politician at a convention: shaking hands, switching into English, hugging foreign leaders, hosting bankers and economists for breakfast. But he increasingly looks like an elder statesman before his time.

或许这正是他的意图所在。当马克龙在纽约与高盛集团首席执行官大卫·所罗门、贝莱德集团首席执行官拉里·芬克以及其他华尔街大佬共进早餐时,他显得游刃有余——毕竟他曾在罗斯柴尔德银行工作,对投资银行业可谓轻车熟路。

Perhaps that is partly the point. When Macron shared breakfast in New York with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and other Wall Street heavyweights, he appeared at ease in a familiar world: investment banking, where he made his name at Rothschild.

虽然马克龙无法连任第三届总统,但一些投机分子指出,宪法限制并不妨碍他在2032年再度竞选总统。

He can’t run for a third consecutive term, but mischievous speculators note the constitutional limit doesn’t prevent him from seeking the presidency again in 2032.

不过到那时,恐怕只有怀旧情绪能助他开启第二段政治生涯了。执政近十年后,马克龙在法国国内已难以获得民众支持。本周末,因不满恶劣的学习环境,法国各地爆发了大规模学生抗议活动。

By then, nostalgia will have to have crept in for him to have a second political life. After almost a decade in office, Macron struggles to find a friendly audience in France. This weekend, student protests over poor learning conditions exploded nationwide.

为抗议生活成本高涨,暴徒们袭击了法国的公共建筑,还在巴黎等城市洗劫商店。法国内政部长洛朗·努内兹称,周六约有55万名示威者参与游行,其中巴黎就有11万人。此外,一些“极左翼”激进分子还袭击了警察局及其他公共建筑,一些趁机趁乱抢劫的人也加入了他们的行列。最终约有400人被拘留。

Rioters attacked French public buildings and looted stores in cities including Paris in protests against the high cost of living. Some 550,000 demonstrators took part in marches Saturday, including 110,000 in Paris, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said. On the fringes, roving groups of “extreme left” activists attacked police stations and other public buildings, joined by “opportunistic” looters, he said. About 400 people were taken into custody.

9月,埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在联合国大会期间。Emmanuel Macron during the United Nations General Assembly in September.

一位要求匿名的马克龙所属政党资深议员表示,党内许多人希望马克龙不要公开发言,因为他们认为那样只会进一步激怒抗议者。不过马克龙并无退隐之意。

While a senior lawmaker of Macron’s party who requested anonymity said many on his side were rooting for Macron not to speak publicly as they feel that would only antagonize protesters, he has no intention of disappearing.

马克龙在X上发文称:“我们的共和国没有暴力的空间。” “那些破坏和袭击省政府及企业、甚至洗劫我们市政厅的人,将受到起诉和惩处。” 他的长期告别正在国际舞台上上演:法国持有七国集团轮值主席国直至年底,而马克龙正是宣布七国集团决定向世界释放战略石油储备的人。他也正在为11月在巴黎举办的一系列与和平相关的活动做准备。随后将是12月的二十国集团会议。

There’s “no place for violence in our Republic,” Macron posted on X. “Those who vandalized and attacked prefectures and businesses, and looted even our town halls, will be prosecuted and punished.”His long goodbye is playing out on the international stage: France holds the rotating presidency of Group of Seven until the end of the year, and Macron is the one who announced the G7 decision to release strategic oil reserves to the world. He is also readying a string of peace-related events in Paris for November. Then comes the G20 meeting in December.

1月,他将为国际投资者举办最后一届“选择法国”会议。巴黎的一位高级官员表示,无论下一任法国领导人是谁,马克龙仍希望在自己任期内完成这些交易。他还补充道:“而事情,在他能够的时候。”

In January, he’ll host a final “Choose France” conference for international investors. Whoever the next French leader is, says a senior official in Paris, Macron still wants to close the deals. And matter, while he can.

他在布鲁塞尔接受记者采访时对勒庞及其对手提出了这一点。“保持谦逊,”他说。“会有人被选中承担这一责任。目前,这一责任正由我本人——即被选举的人——按照宪法履行。”

It’s a point he made to Le Pen and her rivals while addressing reporters in Brussels. “Stay humble,” he said. “Someone will be chosen to have this responsibility. For now, this responsibility is being carried out, in accordance with the Constitution, by yours truly, who was elected.”

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