根据一家倾向左翼立场的经济智库——税收与经济政策研究所（ITEP）最新发布的报告，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推行的各项经济政策预计将在2026年提高大多数美国人的税负及其他开支；而收入排名前1%的富裕阶层则有望节省开支。报告指出，收入处于中等水平的普通美国人因特朗普的政策，2026年的税负及其他开支预计将增加约1,700美元；收入最低的20%的美国人则需多支付约750美元。相比之下，最富有的1%人群预计可节省约12,560美元。
The economic policies introduced by US President Donald Trump are expected to increase taxes and other costs for most Americans in 2026, while the wealthiest 1% of earners are expected to save money, according to a new report by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), a left-leaning economic think tank.A typical American in the middle 20% of earners is expected to pay about $1,700 more in taxes and other costs in 2026 because of Trump's policies. The poorest 20% of Americans are expected to pay about $750 more in taxes and other costs. In contrast, the wealthiest 1% are expected to save about $12,560 in 2026.
这份于10月8日发布的报告分析了特朗普第二任期内实施的三项主要政策：《一项宏伟而美好的法案》中的新税收条款、新冠疫情时期《平价医疗法案》所规定的健康保险税收抵免政策的终止，以及关税、伊朗战争和移民政策引发的物价上涨。这些额外开支或许能够解释为何尽管其他指标显示美国经济依然强劲，但美国消费者的信心指数却接近历史低位，家庭债务水平也在持续上升。
The report, released on October 8, examines three major policy changes under Trump's second administration. These include new tax provisions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the end of COVID-era Affordable Care Act health insurance tax credits, and price increases linked to tariffs, the Iran war and immigration policies. These additional costs could help explain why consumer confidence in the US is close to a record low and household debt is increasing, even as other measures suggest that the US economy remains strong.
据《今日美国》报道，ITEP的联邦税收政策主管史蒂夫·瓦姆霍夫表示，特朗普政府推出的减税措施不足以抵消大多数美国人所面临的开支增长压力。他认为，除了最富有的群体外，这些减税带来的好处远远抵不过普通民众日益加重的支出负担。
Steve Wamhoff, federal tax policy director at ITEP, said the tax cuts introduced by the Trump administration have not been enough to offset the higher costs faced by most Americans. He argued that the benefits of these tax cuts are outweighed by rising expenses for most people, except the richest Americans, according to USA Today.
那么，特朗普政府是如何评价美国经济的呢？这份报告出自一家一贯对特朗普经济政策持批评态度的智库。不过，白宫对总统政策对美国经济的影响则给出了截然不同的评价。白宫发言人马修·米德尔顿称，特朗普的经济政策成功遏制了前总统乔·拜登执政时期出现的通货膨胀危机，促进了经济增长并创造了大量私营部门就业岗位。
What does the Trump administration say about the economy? The ITEP report comes from a think tank that is generally critical of Trump's economic policies. The White House, however, has offered a different assessment of the president's impact on the US economy. White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said Trump's economic policies have helped stop the inflation crisis under former President Joe Biden, supported economic growth and created private-sector jobs.
据《今日美国》报道，他补充称，政府预计未来两年经济将取得更多增长。米德尔顿还批评了民主党关于物价可承受性的言论。他表示，据白宫统计，民主党所支持的各项政策将在10年内使每个美国家庭额外支出35.5万美元，并导致联邦财政赤字增加49万亿美元。今年6月，白宫发布了一份关于特朗普减税政策的报告，指出这些举措让数百万中低收入美国人直接获得了最大幅度的减税优惠。
He added that the administration expects more economic gains over the next two years, according to USA Today. Middleton also criticised Democrats over their claims about affordability. He said Democrats support policies that, according to the White House, would cost every American household $355,000 over 10 years and add $49 trillion to the federal deficit.A White House report released in June on Trump's tax cuts said the changes provided the largest share of tax relief directly to millions of low- and middle-income Americans.
不过，部分经济政策专家对这份由ITEP发布的报告提出了质疑，认为其结论取决于对特朗普各项政策成本与收益的测算方式。
However, some economic policy experts have questioned parts of the ITEP report.
由于高企的房贷利率拖累了房屋销售，如今美国房屋卖家纷纷选择提供利率补贴来吸引买家。《“伟大法案”》延续了特朗普第一任期内依据2017年《减税与就业法案》实施的减税措施，同时还新增了多项减税内容。美国自由派智库“美国企业研究所”的高级研究员凯尔·波默洛指出，倘若当初那些减税政策未能延续，大多数美国人都将面临税负上升的局面。
They said the findings depend on how the costs and benefits of Trump's policies are calculated.US home sellers turn to mortgage rate buydowns as high rates slow home salesThe One Big Beautiful Bill Act extended tax cuts approved during Trump's first term under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It also introduced additional tax cuts. Kyle Pomerleau, a senior fellow at the libertarian American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said most Americans would have faced higher taxes if the earlier tax cuts had been allowed to expire.
ITEP报告在附录中也承认：若将先前减税政策的延续效果纳入考量，除最低收入群体外，其他所有美国人都能从该法案中获得减税实惠。不过，ITEP的分析仅针对国会与特朗普在2025年新出台的各项税收政策。据《今日美国》报道，该报告旨在呈现特朗普第二任期内美国民众对经济状况的实际感受；报告撰写人瓦姆霍夫还补充道，许多美国人或许并未察觉到既有减税政策的延续性，毕竟他们多年来一直都在享受这些减税福利。
The ITEP report acknowledges in an appendix that, when the extension of the earlier tax cuts is included, all but the lowest-income Americans receive tax savings under the law. However, ITEP's analysis focuses only on new tax policies enacted by Congress and Trump in 2025. Wamhoff said the report aims to show how Americans are experiencing the economy during Trump's second term, as noted by USA Today. Wamhoff added that many Americans may not notice the extension of existing tax cuts because they have already been benefiting from those reductions for several years.
《“伟大法案”》究竟如何改变了税收政策呢？对于中等收入家庭而言，预计该法案将在2026年为其带来约380美元的额外减税额度。
How did the One Big Beautiful Bill Act change taxes? For a middle-income American, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to provide about $380 in additional tax savings in 2026.
据报告估算，若把已经实施的减税措施也计算在内，同一纳税人还能再节省780美元。不过，ITEP指出，特朗普政府推出的其他导致物价上涨的政策预计将在2026年让这类中等收入美国人额外支出约1,850美元。这些政策包括关税措施、移民限制措施以及伊朗战争。该估算数值反映了这些政策所带来的额外通胀影响。
If tax cuts that were already in effect are also included, the same taxpayer would save another $780, the report estimated. However, ITEP said other Trump policies that increase prices are expected to cost the same middle-income American about $1,850 in 2026. These policies include tariffs, immigration restrictions and the war in Iran. The estimate measures the additional inflation linked to these policies.
报告还探讨了《平价医疗法案》下新冠疫情期间实施的医疗保险税收抵免政策即将到期的问题。这些抵免政策曾帮助数百万美国人降低医疗保险费用。ITEP将此类抵免政策的终止视为特朗普政府的一项政策决定，因为总统与国会本可决定延长这些政策的有效期。据估计，2026年这些医疗保险税收抵免政策的终止将使普通中等收入美国人平均多支出约230美元。
The report also examines the expiration of COVID-era health insurance tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. These credits had helped millions of Americans pay less for health insurance. ITEP counts the end of these credits as a policy decision by the Trump administration because the president and Congress could have extended them. The report estimates that the expiration of these health insurance tax credits will cost an average middle-income American about $230 in 2026.
Wamhoff指出，若将减税措施带来的收益与额外支出综合考量，几乎所有收入阶层的美国人都将面临经济状况恶化的局面。他认为，只有最富有的1%人群能够凭借减税带来的收益抵消额外支出。
Wamhoff said that when tax changes and additional costs are considered together, Americans across nearly all income groups are expected to be worse off. According to him, the wealthiest 1% are the only group whose tax savings are large enough to outweigh the additional costs.
自由意志主义智库卡托研究所的税收政策研究主任亚当·米歇尔则不认同将医疗保险税收抵免政策终止视为特朗普政府的新政策。据《今日美国》报道，他表示这些抵免政策原本就是临时性措施；即便当时民主党掌控着白宫，他们也本可推动这些政策永久化，却并未这么做。
Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, disagreed with treating the end of the health insurance tax credits as a new Trump policy. He said the credits were originally meant to be temporary and that Democrats could have made them permanent while they controlled the White House but did not do so, according to USA Today.
关税措施与伊朗战争究竟推高了多大程度的物价成本呢？据ITEP分析，对大多数美国人而言，最大的额外支出压力源自那些导致消费品价格上涨的政策，具体包括关税措施、伊朗战争以及严格的移民管控政策。
How much have tariffs and the Iran war increased costs? According to ITEP, the biggest new costs for most Americans come from policies that increase consumer prices. These include tariffs, the Iran war and restrictive immigration policies.
为了估算这些成本，ITEP 将特朗普第二届政府期间的实际价格上涨情况与国会预算办公室在特朗普重返白宫时所作的通胀预测进行了比较。基于这一比较，该报告估计，特朗普推高物价的政策将使美国中等收入家庭在 2026 年额外承担 1850 美元的成本。卡托研究所的米歇尔表示，认为这些政策使美国人的生活成本上升是公平的。
To estimate these costs, ITEP compared actual price increases during Trump's second administration with inflation projections made by the Congressional Budget Office when Trump returned to the presidency. Based on this comparison, the report estimated that Trump's price-increasing policies will cost a middle-income American an additional $1,850 in 2026. Michel of the Cato Institute said it was fair to argue that these policies have made life more expensive for Americans.
他还表示，关税实际上相当于对美国消费者征税。卡托研究所和美国企业研究所（AEI）普遍主张降低税收，但他们的专家对 ITEP 的部分计算方法持不同意见。AEI 的波默洛质疑，与关税无关的通胀是否应全部计入消费者的额外成本。他主张，在通胀时期，价格和收入往往同步上升，使得消费者可以通过收入增加来抵消部分支出上升。
He also said tariffs act like taxes on American consumers. Both the Cato Institute and AEI generally support lower taxes, but their experts disagreed with some parts of ITEP's calculation. Pomerleau of AEI questioned whether inflation unrelated to tariffs should be counted entirely as an additional cost to consumers. He argued that prices and incomes often rise together during periods of inflation, allowing consumers to cover some of the higher expenses with increased earnings.
比特币今日价格：BTC 下跌 3.6%，因美国 9 月批发通胀飙升 1.3%。波默洛表示，当考虑到收入上升的因素时，通胀对人们福祉的总体影响可能会趋于平衡。然而，今日美国援引的最新联邦通胀报告显示，物价上涨速度快于工资增长，意味着许多美国人的收入未能跟上生活成本的上升。谁将在特朗普的经济政策下承担更多成本？
Bitcoin price today: BTC falls 3.6% as US wholesale inflation jumps 1.3% in SeptemberPomerleau said that, when rising incomes are taken into account, the overall effect of inflation on people's well-being could balance out. However, the latest federal inflation report cited by USA Today showed that prices were rising faster than wages, meaning many Americans were not seeing their earnings keep pace with living costs. Who will pay more under Trump's economic policies?
当税收变化和额外成本的影响合并时，几乎所有收入群体都预计将在 2026 年因特朗普的政策而承担更高成本。
When the effects of tax changes and additional costs are combined, nearly every income group is expected to pay more in 2026 under Trump's policies.
该报告预计，2026年美国家庭的税收及其他成本将出现以下变化：美国最贫困的20%人群：多支出750美元。美国中间20%人群：多支出1700美元。其他收入群体（直至第98个收入百分位）：至少多支出1000美元。最富有的1%人群：少支出12560美元。
The report estimates the following changes in taxes and other costs for American households in 2026:Poorest 20% of Americans: $750 more. Middle 20% of Americans: $1,700 more. Other income groups up to the 98th income percentile: At least $1,000 more. Wealthiest 1% of Americans: $12,560 less.
报告称，最富有的1%人群预计将受益，因为其税收节省额大于通胀及其他政策造成的额外成本。ITEP估计，与特朗普政策相关的物价上涨将使最富有的1%人群在2026年额外支出15990美元。然而，新的减税预计将为该群体节省28550美元，使其整体节省12560美元。
The report says the wealthiest 1% are expected to benefit because their tax savings are greater than the additional costs caused by inflation and other policies. ITEP estimates that price increases linked to Trump's policies will cost the wealthiest 1% an additional $15,990 in 2026. However, new tax cuts are expected to save this group $28,550, leaving them with an overall saving of $12,560.
据《今日美国》报道，包括国会预算办公室和彼得·G·彼得森基金会在内的其他机构也发现，《一项宏大美丽法案》下的减税政策有利于高收入家庭。这些发现支持这样的论点：该法案的利益并未在各收入群体之间均等分配。
Other organisations, including the Congressional Budget Office and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, have also found that tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act favour higher-income households, according to USA Today. These findings support the argument that the benefits of the law are not distributed equally across income groups.
然而，特朗普减税的影响在政策专家中仍存在争议。非党派的税务基金会的一项分析发现，2017年特朗普的原始减税政策降低了所有收入群体的平均税率，包括缴纳极少税款的人。卡托研究所的米歇尔表示，高收入者自然会从减税中获得更大的美元价值节省，因为他们本身缴纳的税款就更多。
However, the impact of Trump's tax cuts remains a subject of debate among policy experts. An analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation found that the original 2017 Trump tax cuts reduced average tax rates across all income groups, including people who pay very little in taxes. Michel of the Cato Institute said higher-income earners naturally receive larger dollar-value savings from tax cuts because they generally pay more in taxes to begin with.
总体而言，ITEP报告认为，与特朗普政策相关的额外成本将在2026年超过大多数美国人的税收节省。最富有的1%预计将是主要例外，因为他们的减税幅度足以覆盖其其他成本的预计增加。
Overall, the ITEP report argues that the additional costs linked to Trump's policies will outweigh tax savings for most Americans in 2026. The wealthiest 1% are expected to be the main exception because their tax cuts are large enough to cover the estimated increase in their other costs.