在特朗普总统第二个任期内，经济是变好了还是变坏了？没有唯一答案，但美国人将在下个月的中期选举投票时自行决定。
Has the economy gotten better or worse during President Trump’s second term? There’s no one answer, but Americans will decide for themselves when they go to the polls for the midterm elections next month.
根据选举预测，民主党人有望在明年赢得众议院多数席位，而共和党人只能输掉不超过两个席位，才能维持对参议院的完全控制。由于钱包问题在人们投票方式中扮演着重要角色，我们深入研究了这些数据。
Democrats are favored to win the majority in the House next year and Republicans can afford to lose no more than two seats to maintain outright control of the Senate, according to election forecasts. With pocketbook issues playing such an important role in how people vote, we dug through the numbers.
通胀在上升，但劳动力市场相对稳定。汽油价格上涨，但401(k)余额也在增加。经济并不取决于某一位总统或政府。但许多选民表示，他们对经济的发展方向感到不满。最近的一项YouGov/Economist民意调查发现，近一半的美国人认为当前经济状况不好，只有20%的人形容其为优秀或良好。以下是过去两年美国人钱包内部的情况。
Inflation is rising but the labor market is relatively stable. Gas prices are up but so are 401(k) balances. The economy doesn’t rest on one president or administration. But many voters say they are unhappy with where it is headed. A recent YouGov/Economist poll found that nearly half of Americans say the current state of the economy is poor, with only 20% describing it as excellent or good. Here is a look inside Americans’ wallets over the past two years.
根据美国农业部的定义，一个典型的四口之家，若按中等成本的食品计划购物，在2025年8月的花费比2025年1月多了4.6%。
A typical family of four, defined by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, shopping on a moderate-cost food plan spent 4.6% more in August than it did in January 2025.
自去年以来，碎牛肉价格已从每磅5.55美元上涨至每磅6.79美元，这主要是由于美国牛群规模下降以及严重干旱破坏了牧场条件。
Ground beef prices have risen since last year to $6.79 per pound from $5.55 per pound, largely because of declining U.S. cattle herd size and a severe drought that damaged grazing conditions.
同期，牛奶和鸡胸肉价格也略有上涨。但并非全是坏消息：鸡蛋价格已从2025年1月每打4.95美元降至每打2.27美元，降幅超过一半；当时价格高企是因为禽流感导致数百万只母鸡死亡。面包价格也较一年前略有下降。
Milk and chicken breasts have also slightly increased in the same period. It isn’t all bad news: Egg prices have more than halved in cost to $2.27 a dozen from $4.95 a dozen in January 2025, when prices were high after bird flu that killed millions of hens. Bread prices have also slightly cooled from a year ago.
总体而言，自2025年1月起，食品价格上涨了4.4%，高于当年整体通胀率，劳工统计局报告称。
Overall, food prices rose by 4.4% since January 2025, outpacing overall annual inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
特朗普经常将他的经济表现与股市的上升轨迹联系在一起。自去年他重返白宫以来，股市一直保持韧性，尽管去年春天总统宣布“解放日”关税后出现波动，以及他今年早些时候发动的持续的美伊战争。
Trump has often tied his economic performance to the stock market’s upward trajectory. The stock market has been resilient since he returned to office last year, despite rockiness after the president’s Liberation Day tariff announcements last spring, and the continuing U.S.-Iran war that he began earlier this year.
自就职日收盘前至本周五收盘，标普500指数（含股息）已上涨30%，提升了平均401(k)和IRA账户余额。
The S&P 500 index has risen 30%, including dividends, since the close before Inauguration Day to Friday’s close, boosting average 401(k) and IRA balances.
今年7月，政府开始为2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日出生、父母开设特朗普账户的婴儿投资1000美元——特朗普账户是为儿童设立的托管个人退休账户，在孩子年满18岁之前有特殊规定。这些账户最初投资于State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF，这是一种低成本交易所交易基金，跟踪标普500指数的表现。自账户启动至本周五收盘，该基金（含股息）上涨了2.7%。
In July, the government began investing $1,000 for babies born between Jan. 1, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2028, whose parents open Trump Accounts—the custodial individual retirement accounts for children with special rules until the year the child turns 18. They are initially invested in the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, a low-cost exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500. It is up 2.7%, including dividends, between the accounts’ launch and Friday’s market close.
购房者的中位数月供去年略有下降，但此后又回升至接近历史高点的水平。抵押贷款利率持续上升，对未来购房者构成挑战。本月平均30年固定抵押贷款利率达到7.4%，为其第二个任期的最高水平。
Median monthly mortgage payments for buyers fell a bit last year, but have since risen again to around record levels. And mortgage rates keep going up, a challenge to future buyers. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.4% this month, the highest level of his second term.
美国人仍在感受过去几年房价和抵押贷款利率大幅上涨的影响。近年来，与住房拥有相关的费用——如电费、房屋保险和财产税——也有所上升。
Americans are still feeling the effects of home prices and mortgage rates rising dramatically over the past few years. Costs associated with owning a home such as electricity, home insurance and property tax have gone up in recent months as well.
特朗普曾试图应对房价上涨，包括今年早些时候发布一项行政命令，限制大型投资者购买独栋住宅。国会在今年夏天通过了一项多方面的住房法案。
Trump has attempted to address rising home costs, includingg an executive order earlier this year restricting large investors from buying single-family homes. Congress passed a multipronged housing law over the summer.
根据在线购车平台Edmunds的数据，自去年1月以来，新车价格已上涨约4%。特朗普去年推出的对进口汽车及零部件征收25%关税的政策导致消费者购车成本上升。
New vehicle prices have gone up roughly 4% since last January, according to Edmunds, an online car-shopping platform. Trump’s rollout of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and parts last year raised prices for consumers.
三年车和五年车的二手车价格在近几个月有所回落，此前因关税推出而出现激增。
The prices of three-year-old and five-year-old used vehicles slipped in recent months, after surging following the tariff rollout.
美国人正承担越来越大的债务负担。他们借款更多以购买车辆，并延长贷款期限以使付款更易管理。9月份购买新车的平均融资额达到44,729美元，较2025年1月增加约3,000美元。这主要受整体车辆价格上涨、首付减少和利率上升的推动。新车的平均贷款期限已升至70.5个月，较2025年1月大约长一个月。
Americans are shouldering bigger debt burdens. They are borrowing more to finance vehicles and stretching their terms to keep payments manageable. The average amount financed for a new car reached $44,729 in September, up roughly $3,000 from January 2025. That was driven by higher overall vehicle prices, reduced down payments and higher interest rates. Average loan terms for new cars have risen to 70.5 months, roughly a month longer than January 2025.
在2024年竞选期间，特朗普承诺降低油价。伊朗战争的爆发随后导致霍尔木兹海峡关闭，使美国人的燃油和柴油价格飙升。截至周五，根据油价信息服务（Oil Price Information Service）的数据，驾驶员每加仑汽油的费用较特朗普就职以来上涨了38%。
While on the campaign trail in 2024, Trump promised lower gas prices. The start of the war with Iran, which subsequently led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has catapulted fuel and diesel prices for Americans. Drivers are paying 38% more for gas a gallon than they were since Trump’s inauguration, as of Friday, according to the Oil Price Information Service.
自特朗普第二个任期开始以来，截至周五，柴油价格已上涨71%，达到每加仑6.25美元。
Since the start of Trump’s second term, diesel prices have risen by 71% to $6.25 a gallon, as of Friday.
穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）估计，伊朗战争已使平均美国家庭承担超过2,000美元的成本。
Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi estimates that the war in Iran has cost the average American household more than $2,000.
请写信至Terell Wright，邮箱：terell.wright@wsj.com，以及Drew An-Pham，邮箱：drew.an-pham@wsj.com。
Write to Terell Wright at terell.wright@wsj.com and Drew An-Pham at drew.an-pham@wsj.com