
MSCI周五表示,印度尼西亚股市已不再具备“新兴市场”地位,并公布了一项将其从基金追踪的一系列指数中剔除的计划。此举震惊市场,引发雅加达股票自1998年以来最大单日跌幅。
Indonesia’s stock market is no longer worthy of “emerging market” status, MSCI said on Friday, laying out a plan to remove it from a suite of indexes tracked by funds, a shock move that sparked the steepest one-day drop in Jakarta shares since 1998.
此决定在计划审查前一个月提出,令投资者措手不及,也让雅加达官员感到不悦。印尼监管机构随即宣布对涉嫌操纵三家公司股票交易的相关人员实施制裁。
Coming a month ahead of a scheduled review, MSCI’s change of tack stunned investors and irked Jakarta officials, with the Indonesian regulator unveiling sanctions against those linked to alleged trading manipulation in shares of three firms.
该基准股指全年表现已是全球最差,当天收盘暴跌11.57%,为自1998年1月以来最大单日跌幅。
The benchmark stock index, already the world’s worst performer this year, closed down 11.57%, in its biggest single-day drop since January 1998.
卢比兑美元汇率一度下跌0.8%至18,070,为自七月下旬以来最低,但随后有所回升。
The rupiah currency slid as much as 0.8% to 18,070 a dollar, its weakest since late July, but recovered some ground.
东南亚最大经济体的股票自今年一月MSCI指数冻结以来一直低迷,因所有权和交易行为缺乏透明度,面临被降至“前沿市场”地位的威胁。
Equities in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy have struggled since a January freeze in the MSCI indexes, with a threatened downgrade to “frontier” status because of opacity in ownership and trading behaviour.
自那时起,该市场市值已蒸发超过3500亿美元,仅周五一天就蒸发约600亿美元。
The market has lost more than $350 billion in capitalisation since, with about $60 billion wiped out on Friday alone.
MSCI称,改革力度不足,无法解决这些问题,即便降至“前沿市场”地位也无法反映问题的严重性,因此提出进一步将其定位为“独立市场”状态。
MSCI cited insufficient reforms to tackle the problems and said even a downgrade to “frontier” status would not reflect the severity of the issues, but proposed instead to move further beyond that, to “standalone” status.
“市场功能失调的严重担忧仍然存在,”MSCI在周五的声明中表示。“因此,MSCI认为印度尼西亚继续被归类为新兴市场已不再合适。”其提出的较低“独立市场”地位将使印尼股票被排除在全球被动投资追踪的指数之外,迫使追踪或以这些指数为基准的基金进行卖出。
“Significant concerns remain around market dysfunction,” MSCI said in a statement on Friday. “Accordingly, MSCI considers Indonesia’s continued classification as an emerging market no longer appropriate.”The lower “standalone” status it proposed would exclude Indonesian stocks from global indexes tracked by billions of dollars in passive investment, forcing funds that follow, or are ranked against, the indexes, to sell.
瑞银估计,此举可能触发约40亿美元的被动资金从印尼流出,而主动投资者可能进一步加大流出规模,达到15亿美元。外国投资者已在2026年净卖出价值47亿美元的印尼股票。
UBS estimated such a move could trigger about $4 billion of passive outflows from Indonesia, with active investors potentially adding a further $15 billion in outflows. Foreign investors have already net sold $4.7 billion worth of Indonesian stocks in 2026.
印度尼西亚经济统筹部长艾尔朗加·哈塔托表示,对于MSCI为何在本周于泰国曼谷举行的会议上未提及将印尼从指数中降级为“独立市场”一事,目前仍存在“很大的疑问”。
Indonesia’s senior economic minister, Airlangga Hartarto, said there was “a big question mark” over why MSCI did not discuss the downgrade to “standalone” status during a meeting this week in the Thai capital of Bangkok.
此番言论是在包括财政部长、央行行长及其他相关官员在内的高层会议召开前夕发出的,此次会议旨在讨论MSCI的上述决定。
He commented ahead of a meeting of top officials, including the finance minister, the governor of the central bank and other related officials to discuss MSCI’s announcement.
印度尼西亚证券交易所称,该交易所已采取切实措施以提升资本市场的透明度与诚信度。交易所首席执行官杰弗里·亨德里克表示,他将依据MSCI的公告进一步寻求相关说明。
The Indonesia Stock Exchange said it had taken concrete steps to enhance transparency and integrity in the capital market, and CEO Jeffrey Hendrik said he would request further clarification based on the announcement.
新加坡Aletheia Capital公司的东盟问题专家安格斯·麦金托什指出,这一决定并不能反映绝大多数上市公司的经营状况,更无法体现印尼经济的整体健康程度。他还强调:“将印尼与黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦以及阿根廷归为同一类市场实在毫无道理。”
The move did not reflect the health of the vast majority of listed companies or indeed the Indonesian economy, said Angus Mackintosh, an ASEAN specialist at Aletheia Capital in Singapore, adding that “grouping Indonesia with Lebanon, Palestine, and Argentina does not make sense”.
麦金托什补充道:“这对印尼而言是一个警钟。”倘若真的被降级为“独立市场”,印尼将成为该组别中经济规模最大的国家。
He added, “This is a wake-up call for Indonesia.”Indonesia would be the largest economy in the group if it were downgraded to “standalone” status.
MSCI的决定引发更多质疑:这一举措给普拉博沃·苏比安托总统领导的政府带来了巨大压力。今年,印尼接连遭遇一系列不利局面:穆迪与惠誉均以印尼政策制定公信力下降为由,将其主权信用评级展望下调至负面。
MSCI SCRUTINY RAISES MORE QUESTIONS MSCI’s announcement piles pressure on the government of President Prabowo Subianto. It is the latest of a series of setbacks for Indonesia this year, with Moody’s and Fitch cutting their sovereign rating outlooks to negative, citing reduced policymaking credibility.
皮克泰资产管理公司的新兴市场股票投资经理坦·阿尔顿达格指出:“这一提议凸显了MSCI对印尼改革步伐的不满,同时也引发了市场投资者对该国投资价值的更多疑虑。”尽管阿尔顿达格本人并未持有任何印尼股票,但他仍强调:“这一决定可能带来深远影响。”
“The proposal highlights MSCI’s dissatisfaction with the pace of reforms and raises further questions about the investability of the market,” said Tan Altundag, investment manager for emerging equities at Pictet Asset Management. “The investment implications could be significant,” said Altundag, who has no holdings in Indonesia.
负责主持金融稳定委员会工作的财政部长苏哈希尔·纳扎拉办公室并未对相关问询作出回应。
The office of Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara, who chairs the financial stability board, did not reply to a request for comment.
这一举措引发了投资者的恐慌情绪:开市后大量投资者争相抛售股票,导致雅加达证券交易所不得不暂停交易30分钟。
In a sign of investor anxiety over the index provider’s move, there was a rush for the exits when the market opened, triggering a 30-minute trading halt on the Jakarta exchange.
“这在我的20年股市生涯中还是头一次,”Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia研究主管Liza Camelia Suryanata说,指的是开盘后混乱的几分钟。
“It’s the first time this has ever happened in my 20 years in the stock market,” said Liza Camelia Suryanata, head of research at stockbroker Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, referring to the chaotic opening minutes.
Mackintosh补充说,考虑到印尼为解决市场透明度问题并提高上市公司公众持股比例所做的努力,MSCI的举措似乎有些过于强硬。
MSCI’s move seemed heavy-handed, given Indonesia’s efforts to tackle issues around market transparency and increase the free-float requirement for listed firms, Mackintosh added.
“印尼纠正这一局面的唯一方法,就是对参与协调操纵股价的人员实施严厉制裁和罚款,”他说。
“The only way for Indonesia to remedy this situation would be to impose severe sanctions and fines on those involved in concerted share manipulation,” he said.
MSCI采取行动后,印尼金融服务管理局(OJK)披露,对涉及三家上市公司——Dian Swastatika Sentosa、Barito Renewables Energy和Petrindo Jaya Kreasi——交易违规的市场参与者处以数百万美元罚款。
After the MSCI move, Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) disclosed fines of millions of dollars for market participants involved in trading violations concerning three listed firms – Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Barito Renewables Energy and Petrindo Jaya Kreasi.
该监管机构官员Hasan Fawzi表示,投资者被指控对Dian Swastatika的股票进行“计划性和结构性”的价格操纵。
Investors allegedly conducted “planned and structured” price manipulation of Dian Swastatika’s shares, said Hasan Fawzi, an official of the regulator.
Barito Renewables和Petrindo首次公开募股(IPO)发行的股票,据称从一开始就打算给予与控股股东有关联的各方,导致所有权高度集中。这些公司没有立即回复路透社寻求置评的电子邮件。
Shares offered in the IPOs of Barito Renewables and Petrindo were allegedly intended from the outset for parties linked to the controlling shareholder, leading to concentrated ownership. The companies did not immediately respond to Reuters emails seeking comment.
计划于2027年中降级 MSCI表示,将与市场参与者就降级至“独立”地位进行磋商,直到2027年4月,除非发现市场治理和运作有明显改善的证据,否则将继续进行重新分类。
DOWNGRADE PLANNED FOR MID-2027 MSCI said it would run a consultation with market participants for a downgrade to “standalone” status until April 2027 and then proceed with reclassification unless it finds clear evidence of improvement in market governance and function.
独立市场不包括在MSCI的新兴市场或边际市场指数产品中,这些指数产品被被动基金跟踪,并被其他基金经理视为业绩基准。
Standalone markets are not included in MSCI’s emerging or frontier index products, which are tracked by passive funds and treated as performance benchmarks for other fund managers.
MSCI表示,在市场可及性或规模和流动性出现严重恶化的情况下,可能会将市场重新分类为独立地位,阿根廷是最近的一个例子。
MSCI says reclassification to standalone status may occur in the case of severe deterioration in market accessibility or size and liquidity, with Argentina the most recent example.