随着 MSCI 可能重新分类、将印度尼西亚降级为投资边缘地带的威胁迫在眉睫，该国金融监管机构和证券交易所官员誓言解决系统性问题，包括剔除股权高度集中的股票。
As the threat of a reclassification by MSCI that could relegate Indonesia to an investment hinterland looms, the country’s financial regulators and stock exchange officials have vowed to address systemic concerns, including removing stocks with concentrated ownership.
这家全球指数提供商周五宣布，正式启动咨询程序，以决定是否将东南亚最大经济体从“新兴市场”降级为“独立市场”地位，类似于阿根廷、津巴布韦、乌克兰和俄罗斯等国家。
The global index provider announced on Friday it was launching a formal consultation to decide whether to downgrade Southeast Asia’s largest economy from “emerging market” to “stand-alone” status, similar to countries such as Argentina, Zimbabwe, Ukraine and Russia.
MSCI 援引对印度尼西亚市场机能障碍的持续担忧，包括不透明的所有权结构、高度集中的股权以及协同交易行为。其最终决定预计将于明年 6 月 30 日前做出。
MSCI cited persistent concerns over Indonesia’s market dysfunction, including opaque ownership structures, highly concentrated shareholdings and coordinated trading practices. Its final decision is expected by June 30 next year.
周一，印度尼西亚证券交易所（IDX）官员与 MSCI 代表举行在线会议，提出了改革该国问题股市的措施。
On Monday, officials from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) held an online meeting with MSCI representatives, where they laid out measures to reform the country’s problematic stock market.
“第一，我们将在公布名单时，注明 1% 股东是否与公司有关联或无关联。第二，为提供更可信、更综合的价格指数，我们将把所有高股权集中度（HSC）股票从雅加达综合指数中剔除，”IDX 首席执行官 Jeffrey Hendrik 告诉记者。
“First, we will include a description of whether 1 per cent shareholders are affiliated or unaffiliated [with the company] when publishing the names. Second, to provide a more credible and integrated price index, we will remove all high shareholding concentration [HSC] shares from the Jakarta Composite Index,” IDX CEO Jeffrey Hendrik told reporters.
“我们希望这两项举措能提供更高的透明度和更完整的市场数据。” HSC 是指一家公司的绝大部分股份——在某些情况下超过 95%——由少数股东持有，可供公众交易的自由流通股极少的市场状况。
“We hope these two initiatives will provide greater transparency and greater market data integrity.”HSC refers to a market situation in which a huge percentage of a company’s shares – in some cases above 95 per cent – are owned by a small number of shareholders, with a very small free float available for public trading.
据 Hendrik 介绍，HSC 股票目前占 JCI 总权重的 18%。他补充说，此类股票已被香港基准恒生指数剔除。
According to Hendrik, HSC shares currently account for 18 per cent of JCI’s total weighting. Such shares had been excluded from Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index, he added.
Hendrik 表示，新措施是在印尼证券交易所此前为提高透明度所采取的步骤之后推出的，例如将自由流通股比例——即公司股份中可供公众买卖的比例——的最低要求设定为 15%，并将投资者类别从 9 类扩大到 39 类等。
Hendrik said the new measures followed previous steps taken by the Indonesian bourse to improve transparency, such as setting 15 per cent as the minimum requirement of free float, or the proportion of a company’s shares readily available for the general public to buy and sell, and expanding the number of investor categories from nine to 39, among others.
周一收盘时，雅加达综合指数（JCI）下跌 3.64%，报收于 4996.60 点，创六年新低。在 MSCI 发出警告后，该基准指数周五暴跌 11.6%，成为全球表现最差的指数之一，市值蒸发约 850 亿美元。周二，该指数上涨 5.65%，报收于 5278 点。
The JCI plunged 3.64 per cent at the close of trading on Monday to a six-year low at 4,996.60. After MSCI issued its warning, the benchmark index plunged 11.6 per cent on Friday, making it one of the world’s worst performers and wiping out around US$85 billion in market capitalisation. On Tuesday, the index rose 5.65 per cent to close at 5,278.
高盛在周日的一份研报中警告称，据 CNBC 引用，若被降级为独立市场地位，可能触发 56 亿美元的被动基金资金外流；如果全球领先的基准指数提供商富时罗素采取类似行动，将再有 27 亿美元资金外流。
A downgrade to stand-alone market status could trigger US$5.6 billion in passive fund outflows, with another US$2.7 billion fleeing if FTSE Russell – a leading global provider of benchmarks – were to take similar action, Goldman Sachs warned in a note on Sunday, as quoted by CNBC.
该投行称，截至周日，外资持有印尼股票的比例为 25%，低于 1 月的 27%，而外资持股市值已从 1 月的 2500 亿美元降至 1300 亿美元。
As of Sunday, the proportion of foreign ownership of Indonesian stocks was 25 per cent, down from 27 per cent in January, while the value of foreign holdings had dropped to US$130 billion from US$250 billion in January, the investment bank said.
周末期间，印尼金融服务管理局（OJK）和印尼证券交易所（IDX）为安抚紧张的市场，宣布对三家涉嫌操纵其股票交易的公司处以 2.1 万亿盾（约 1.164 亿美元）的罚款。
Over the weekend, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) in Indonesia and IDX sought to steady the nervous market by declaring a fine of 2.1 trillion rupiah (US$116.4 million) on three firms alleged to have manipulated trading of their shares.
其中两家公司——Barito Renewables Energy 和 Petrindo Jaya Kreasi——隶属于大亨 Prajogo Pangestu 旗下的集团，另一家公司 Dian Swastatika Sentosa 则属于 Sinar Mas 集团。
Two of the firms, Barito Renewables Energy and Petrindo Jaya Kreasi, belonged to a group owned by conglomerate Prajogo Pangestu, while another, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, is part of the Sinar Mas conglomerate.
仍需更多整治 经济学家们欢迎 IDX 的举措，但表示监管机构仍需实施严格的法律执法，以帮助印尼避免被 MSCI 重新分类。
More fixes needed While economists welcomed the measures by IDX, they said regulators still needed to impose firm law enforcement to help Indonesia avoid reclassification by MSCI.
“改变外界对印尼看法的关键，在于严格执行印尼证券交易所（IDX）和金融服务管理局（OJK）的规则与法规，并实施制裁，包括重罚甚至监禁。毕竟这是犯罪行为，”新加坡Aletheia Capital的东盟专家安格斯·麦金托什（Angus Mackintosh）表示。
“The key to adjusting the perception of Indonesia needs to come from strict enforcement of IDX and OJK rules and regulations and the imposition of sanctions, including significant fines and even imprisonment. This is criminal behaviour after all,” said Angus Mackintosh, an Asean specialist at Aletheia Capital in Singapore.
“最高层需要发出直截了当的声明，以确保行动得到彻底落实，即使那些操纵市场者与政府关系密切。”总部位于雅加达的智库经济与法律研究中心（Celios）执行主任比马·尤迪史蒂拉（Bhima Yudhistira）表示，披露持股1%的股东“必须伴随对其最终受益所有权的调查，因为许多公司利用其他公司的名义，或使用代理人作为其股东”。
“Forthright statements from the top are required to ensure that actions are taken to their logical conclusion, even if those market abusers are closely connected to the government.”Bhima Yudhistira, executive director at Jakarta-based think tank Centre of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), said that the disclosure of 1 per cent shareholders “must be accompanied by an investigation into their ultimate beneficial ownership, as many companies use the names of other companies, or nominees, as their shareholders”.
比马补充道，国家财富基金兼投资机构达南塔拉（Danantara）试图收购IDX股份，也让市场感到不安，这“最终将导致证券交易所独立性的下降”。
The market was also rattled by an effort by state wealth fund and investment agency Danantara to acquire shares of the IDX, which would “ultimately lead to a decline in the independence of the stock exchange”, Bhima added.
IDX目前正在经历去会员化进程，这将使其成为一家由股东拥有的有限责任公司。IDX目前由其会员拥有，包括90家证券公司。
The IDX is currently undergoing a demutualisation process, which will see it become a limited liability company owned by shareholders. IDX is currently owned by its members, including 90 securities companies.
印度尼西亚经济改革中心的经济学家迪波·拉姆利（Dipo Ramli）表示，IDX仍面临“市场信心下降”的问题，这可能会“间接影响”评级机构对印尼经济的评估。
Dipo Ramli, an economist with the Centre of Reform on Economics Indonesia, said that IDX was still facing “a decline in market confidence,” which could “indirectly influence” the assessment of the Indonesian economy by rating agencies.
今年早些时候，惠誉和穆迪因对总统普拉博沃·苏比安托（Prabowo Subianto）政府的经济治理感到担忧，将印尼的评级展望从稳定下调至负面。
Earlier this year, Fitch and Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s rating outlook from stable to negative due to concerns relating to economic governance by President Prabowo Subianto’s administration.
在印尼的英国投资者马汀·特皮洛夫斯基（Martyn Terpilowski）表示，“外国人不太可能买账”监管机构为吸引他们重返市场而发起的攻势。
Martyn Terpilowski, a British investor in Indonesia, said that “foreigners are unlikely to buy” the charm offensive by regulators to lure them back into the market.
“在印度尼西亚，很多交易都是场外的（即不在公开市场上进行的）。这是因为股票的实际价格被严重高估了，而内部人士对此心知肚明，”特尔皮洛夫斯基说。“这个市场根本不具备透明度，投资者无法放心地进行投资。”他还对当局承诺让市场对投资者更加开放表示怀疑。
“What you find in Indonesia, a lot of the deals are off-market transactions. That’s because the actual real price of the stock is heavily inflated and the insiders know that,” Terpilowski said. “It’s just not a transparent market that people can invest into.”He also questioned the authorities’ promise to make the market more open to investors.
“这确实是个棘手的问题——因为如果有400亿美元的资金从印尼经济体系中流出，将会对经济造成严重打击。问题是：如果他们真的放开市场限制、引入更透明的监管机制，这是否会进一步损害寡头们的利益？”特尔皮洛夫斯基问道。
“It’s a difficult one because the economy will be hurt if US$40 billion flows out of the economy. The question is, if they open the floodgates to allow a better system, will that hurt the oligarchs more?”Terpilowski said.
“印度尼西亚目前面临的问题与美国的情况非常相似：当地的商业领袖们与政府高层关系过于密切，”他补充道。
“The problem you’ve got in Indonesia is pretty similar to the United States now, as the business leaders are all very close to the government leaders.”Wider economic crisis?
比玛认为，当前印度尼西亚股市所面临的压力可能会导致类似20世纪90年代末的经济危机。
Bhima argued that the current pressure on the Indonesian bourse could lead to an economic crisis similar to one in the late 1990s.
“政府声称经济取得了成功，但实际情况却与这些说法相悖；印度尼西亚证券交易所的治理结构存在严重问题，同时印尼银行的独立性也在逐渐减弱，”比玛指出。
“There’s a disconnect between the government’s claims of economic success and the actual state of economic fundamentals. There is damaged governance in the stock exchange, as well as the declining independence of Bank Indonesia,” Bhima said.
“由于人们对政府政策的信任度下降，这种情况很可能会引发一场金融危机（类似于1998年的金融危机）。政府财政部门与金融部门之间的问题已经相互交织在一起，”比玛继续分析道。不过，麦金托什认为，只要监管机构继续对当地股市进行改革并提高其透明度，就不会发生大规模的经济危机。
“This could lead to a financial crisis, similar to the 1998 model, due to distrust over policy credibility. The issues are already intertwined between the [government] fiscal and financial sectors.”Mackintosh, however, said the wider economic crisis would not occur as long as regulators continued overhauling the local stock market and making it transparent.
“印尼证券交易所（IDX）和金融监管机构（OJK）必须采取强硬措施，惩处那些参与股价操纵和市场欺诈的公司；相关的经纪人也应该受到严厉处罚，甚至被禁止从事交易活动，”麦金托什强调。
“IDX and OJK need to show their teeth in dealing with these problems and sanction those companies which are connected to share manipulation activity and market abuse. The brokers involved should also be sanctioned, heavily fined and disbarred from trading,” Mackintosh said.
“对于MSCI的这一举措，市场上存在诸多质疑之声。尽管绝大多数企业都保持着高水准的治理标准，但该举措却对整个股市产生了负面影响，引发了全面的剧烈回调与市值缩水。”
“There is a good deal of scepticism around the move by the MSCI in that it has impacted the whole stock market, bringing about a significant correction and destruction across the board, when the vast majority of companies maintain high-quality governance standards.”